2nd Scottish Independence Referendum incoming

[melon 3,669]

The argument for independence now is extremely weak compared to 2014, oil prices have halved - which was a HUGE part of the argument for having a more buoyant economy in the event of gaining independence - and  if Scotland leaves the UK they will have to apply to re-join the EU.

 

Applying to join the EU will be extremely difficult because of two reasons:

1. Spain will 100% veto Scotland's attempts to join the EU (yes they can do this and they will) because they do not want Catalonia to gain inspiration and see that they would be allowed to join the EU if they gained independence.

2. The vast majority of Scots want to keep the £.  

This wouldn't be possible as to join the EU you have to adopt the € - seen someone say that the UK didn't have to adopt the €, that's because the € was not created when the EU was formed and all the member states were given the choice to adopt the € when it was created.  

Also unless there was a separate currency union deal after Scotland left the UK, Scotland could technically still use the £ but if I remember in 2014 the UK Government said a currency union would not happen.  

This would leave Scotland with the choice of still using the £ but having no control whatsoever over the currency (inflation etc.) which is not a good position to be in and would leave foreign investors wary of Scotland.

 

That being said it is up to Scots to decide what's best for them.  Just wish people would stop looking for a scapegoat for all their problems, independence would not result in everyone in Scotland being better off, in fact it would create a lot more problems and uncertainty.  
Personally I hope Scotland remains part of the Union, I think in times like this we need to have each others' backs and there's far too many people talking divisively when we should be projecting to the rest of the world how progressive and inclusive we WANT (not necessarily are right now) to be as a family of nations.

[Luc 4,776]

another victory for the EU and for Scotland. Before the Brexit referendum they were better off in the UK, after Brexit they're not.

 

A few benefits:

- EU funding to research, freedom of movement for scientists, etc that the UK won't and can't offer

- EU funding for agriculture that the UK will likely tone down

- EU funding for poorer regions, which the UK is not going to replace

- No more toxic Tories governing: actual self-governing with real left-wing, progressive and green policies

- No more first past the post; Scotland can review their constitution and 

- Scotland gets to keep EU regulations, which protect people against corporations and allow for easier trade with the EU

- London's banking sector will slowly move up north to Edinburgh or Glasgow; that's a huge sector with huge investments pouring in

- Brain gain from the UK and EU citizens in England moving to Scotland

- Leftists in Scotland will get to decide over the country, and Scotland will probably have a society more like the Scandinavian model than the Anglophoje model

- EU membership increases trade.

 

Will Scotland have to join the Eurozone? Officially, yes. In practise they can delay it as long as they want without being exempted. Sweden's been doing that too.

 

@StrawberryBlond on a positive note, the whole reason the SNP exists is for independence. If Scotland leaves the UK, they will either fall apart like UKIP  or become a serious political party. Scotland could get a representative democracy, which would allow for many different parties with many different ideas.

 

 

by the way, where's the member who kept claiming that the Tories wouldn't go for Hard Brexit?

[FATCAT 60,935]

@Tokyo is almost shook. (He's Irish)

[boyerased 2,889]

Leaving UK doesn't mean that you can automatically join EU. It'll take almost a decade if it will happen. Spain can veto too. Scotland would have to join the lists of countries applying for EU memberships. Currency would also be an issue. 

If Scotland will to separate, it would continue to trigger the events started by Brexit, even the monarchy could be in danger. 

[Luc 4,776]

23 minutes ago, melon said:

The argument for independence now is extremely weak compared to 2014, oil prices have halved - which was a HUGE part of the argument for having a more buoyant economy in the event of gaining independence - and  if Scotland leaves the UK they will have to apply to re-join the EU.

 

Applying to join the EU will be extremely difficult because of two reasons:

1. Spain will 100% veto Scotland's attempts to join the EU (yes they can do this and they will) because they do not want Catalonia to gain inspiration and see that they would be allowed to join the EU if they gained independence.

2. The vast majority of Scots want to keep the £.  

This wouldn't be possible as to join the EU you have to adopt the € - seen someone say that the UK didn't have to adopt the €, that's because the € was not created when the EU was formed and all the member states were given the choice to adopt the € when it was created.  

Also unless there was a separate currency union deal after Scotland left the UK, Scotland could technically still use the £ but if I remember in 2014 the UK Government said a currency union would not happen.  

This would leave Scotland with the choice of still using the £ but having no control whatsoever over the currency (inflation etc.) which is not a good position to be in and would leave foreign investors wary of Scotland.

 

That being said it is up to Scots to decide what's best for them.  Just wish people would stop looking for a scapegoat for all their problems, independence would not result in everyone in Scotland being better off, in fact it would create a lot more problems and uncertainty.  
Personally I hope Scotland remains part of the Union, I think in times like this we need to have each others' backs and there's far too many people talking divisively when we should be projecting to the rest of the world how progressive and inclusive we WANT (not necessarily are right now) to be as a family of nations.

- The single market gives great benefits to the economy. Being an English-speaking country inside the single market, relatively close to the UK will give Scotland a great competitive edge in the services sector. Trade deals the EU already has, will not have to be renegotiated.

- Spain will only veto if the referendum is held illegally. If the referendum result is recognized by the UK, they will not veto.

- Sweden is not exempted from Eurozone membership (like Denmark & UK) yet is not part of the Eurozone. Formally they're required to join as their economy is great, but they can keep delaying it as long as they want without problems.

- Scotland joining the EU is the most fiercely anti-populist message I can think of on an international level. It's the embodiment of 'the UK lost, Brexiteers lost, progressives won'.

 

I'm mildly optimistic that the UK will rejoin the EU somewhere in the next 40 years, and perhaps Scotland could rejoin the UK at that moment.

[Benji 20,113]

3 hours ago, Craig Barnes said:

Come on, this is our time! Dont **** this up, Scotland - not again.

Sick to the back teeth of the right-winged, facist tory party dictating what goes on in our country. Lets free our beautiful country

You do realise one of the reasons that the conservatives continue to win elections is because of parties like the SNP, UKIP etc. taking labour's votes, right? It's easy to engage the working class because they are passionate about more than just money, it's how all of these extreme parties steal votes.

Scotland would be f*cked if it left the UK and the EU.

[StrawberryBlond 15,665]

15 minutes ago, Luc said:

 

@StrawberryBlond on a positive note, the whole reason the SNP exists is for independence. If Scotland leaves the UK, they will either fall apart like UKIP  or become a serious political party. Scotland could get a representative democracy, which would allow for many different parties with many different ideas.

They will most likely be the governing party. Who else is going to lead? If they're the party that got us independence, they'll be ruling Scotland, in the same way monarchies used to rule. Before he resigned, some people said Alex Salmond just wanted independence so he could be like the King of Scotland. I don't think we have a big enough population to encourage interest in making lots of other parties. God knows no one I know wants to get into politics, we're all sick and tired of it. At most, a name change might occur, but they'll be the governing body, for sure. Nicola would probably become our prime minister, there's no one else who'd be available to take up the position, after all. And even if other parties did come about, well...they're hardly going to get us back with Britain again are they? So they'd just be like every other British political parties we've lost faith in, except Scottish.

[Benji 20,113]

12 minutes ago, Luc said:

I'm mildly optimistic that the UK will rejoin the EU somewhere in the next 40 years, and perhaps Scotland could rejoin the UK at that moment.

I personally can see the UK, US and parts of Europe and some members of the Common Wealth forming a union within our life times. It would probably be the start of moving towards a kind of "world government."

[Saint Laurent 4,862]

The SNP have had a brain fart with this one.

good luck with that Nicola sis.

[bionic 50,111]

44 minutes ago, Benji said:

I personally can see the UK, US and parts of Europe and some members of the Common Wealth forming a union within our life times. It would probably be the start of moving towards a kind of "world government."

The US would be the last to join because other countries wouldn't want to be bossed around by them. I don't see it in our lifetime (or our childrens)

[bionic 50,111]

54 minutes ago, StrawberryBlond said:

They will most likely be the governing party. Who else is going to lead? If they're the party that got us independence, they'll be ruling Scotland, in the same way monarchies used to rule. Before he resigned, some people said Alex Salmond just wanted independence so he could be like the King of Scotland. I don't think we have a big enough population to encourage interest in making lots of other parties. God knows no one I know wants to get into politics, we're all sick and tired of it. At most, a name change might occur, but they'll be the governing body, for sure. Nicola would probably become our prime minister, there's no one else who'd be available to take up the position, after all. And even if other parties did come about, well...they're hardly going to get us back with Britain again are they? So they'd just be like every other British political parties we've lost faith in, except Scottish.

You'd still have Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservative, Scottish Greens etc. But you're absolutely right about the final part of your post. Independence is 99% unlikely to be reversed.  

[Benji 20,113]

2 minutes ago, bionic said:

The US would be the last to join because other countries wouldn't want to be bossed around by them. I don't see it in our lifetime (or our childrens)

Post-Trump, anything could be possible 

[Luc 4,776]

54 minutes ago, Benji said:

I personally can see the UK, US and parts of Europe and some members of the Common Wealth forming a union within our life times. It would probably be the start of moving towards a kind of "world government."

I think a world war three would have to happen before people accept a world government... no thanks. 

 

But I can definitely see more international cooperation kn tax evasion and climate change. Sadly the US system doesn't allow for this to happen with politicians dependent on donations.

[xoxo Craig 55,649]

51 minutes ago, Benji said:

You do realise one of the reasons that the conservatives continue to win elections is because of parties like the SNP, UKIP etc. taking labour's votes, right? It's easy to engage the working class because they are passionate about more than just money, it's how all of these extreme parties steal votes.

Scotland would be f*cked if it left the UK and the EU.

You're wrong mate. See, Labour just isnt strong enough. Corbyn is such a weak leader and the party has fallen away. The Scottish people have realised that the only party that has the people of Scotland's interests is the SNP. That's why they won the election 2 terms in a row. We voted overwhelmingly to remain part of the EU and its only fair that our leader seeks the best way possible for us to remain part of the E.U. The SNP is far from an extreme party, the Torries made Scotland worse off when Maggie Thracther was PM, and Mrs. May aint any better. The Torries are becoming more and more right winged, which is not good on the whole of the UK. 

Scotland deserves its chance to be free, to control our own finances, have our own say on what happens in our country and not from a country that borders it, and be able to be part of the EU as that's what the people of Scotland wanted.

You are right, Scotland is f*cked if we left the E.U, and right now England is dragging us with it - so its only fair we take matters into our own hands and rejoin the E.U. Scotland WOULD MOST DEFINITELY BE BETTER OFF AS AN INDEPENDENT NATION. 

[Benji 20,113]

Just now, Luc said:

I think a world war three would have to happen before people accept a world government... no thanks. 

 

But I can definitely see more international cooperation kn tax evasion and climate change. Sadly the US system doesn't allow for this to happen with politicians dependent on donations.

I think there's a few ways a union like the one I proposed could form, one of them could technically become a world war with the goal of calming Russia if the time came. I can also see us uniting if Asia was to become more and more powerful. The Western world would try to become less dependent on Asian products and labour etc.

The next few years are going to be a bit of a step backwards but I think the world kind of needs it to make some significant steps forward. Almost all of our huge steps forward have been brought about by something going a little tits up so bring it on