BREAKING: Court rules Brexit must be voted on by Parliament

[Benji 20,113]

2 minutes ago, Luc said:

You're overestimating the UK's power and underestimating the EU's power and most of all the EU's unity. Remember that over 40% of the UK's trade is with the EU.

Especially in the light of the almost-failed Canadian trade deal, the failed refugee relocation scheme and such, the EU above all wants to show unity. All member states, from the most Euroskeptic (Poland, Denmark) to the most pro-EU (Germany) understand that. Especially Germany, France and Italy - the 'big three' right now - agree on that. And they have been unified in their response. Everyone with a major role in Brexit negotiations - from Verhofstadt to Merkel to Hollande to Renzi - has emphasised that for the UK to keep single market access it would have to accept the EU's four most fundamental principles, including Freedom of Movement.

And as for the negotating power on trade, remember that the EU, with 450 million people (excluding the UK), is more important for the UK, with 60 million people, than vice versa. Even the European countries most dependent on the Netherlands and Ireland, have a smaller portion of their export to the UK than the UK to the EU:

12% of the UK economy consists out of exports to the EU

3% of the Dutch economy, the economy that relies on the UK the most in the EU, consists out of export to the UK. Ireland actually has a negative account balance with the UK.

 

The EU obviously has the upper hand in negotiations. All parliaments in the EU (from Poland to Wallonia to Finland) have to accept the UK-EU agreement in the end (which for once is to the benefit of the EU). For the UK parliamentary involvement is a curse, but for the EU it's a blessing.

 

And finally the most important thing here is the political argument:

1. The EU leaders don't want the EU to break apart. They want visible negative repercussions for the UK, so that the Euroskeptic voices in the EU are no longer important. The fall of the pound and the general backlash back in June was already enough for 10% of Dutch people to change their minds about the EU from negative to positive. This is especially prevalent in countries like Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and France - exactly the countries that have some of the strongest ties with Britain.

2. There's a general feeling of revenge in the EU population. People want to see the British face the repercussions for their stupid choice. Compare it to Greece: it's the economically responsible decision to provide Greece debt relief, but EU politicians took advantage of the public's emotions and played bad guy towards Greece, leading for example to Schäuble's highest approval ratings in years. The same will, to a lesser extent, happen to the UK.

 

 

if you think this is interesting, read the following:

http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-should-be-offered-tough-brexit-terms-by-eu-survey-brits-eu/

 

meanwhile the EU will no longer be blocked by the UK in expanding its' geopolitical powers:

1. The UK has consistently blocked military integration of the EU

2. The UK has consistently blocked foreign policy integration of the EU

3. The UK has consistently pushed for expanding the EU in order to keep integration of the EU at a lower pace.

I'm not underestimating or overestimating anything. Like I said above, not many people in parliament want to really leave the EU. Parliament won't allow Theresa May to trigger Article 50 unless she agrees to approaching the EU with a soft break that keeps the trade deals and movement of people intact.

Every country seems to assume that the UK really would just jump and commit economical suicide but it knows what it's doing. We either delay Theresa May until someone else can come up and cancel Brexit or we agree to do it softly. There's no need to talk about a hard Brexit because no one would agree to it.

[Benji 20,113]

51 minutes ago, destinyofself said:

We voted to leave, this is bollocks! This will NEVER pass Parliament! I hate this country sometimes. 

Well, to assume it would have been simple is crazy. I know the Leave Campaign made it sound easy but it isn't.

Brexit can't be, won't be or even remotely resemble a complete cut of ties from the people across the channel. Why anyone believed it could have been that is beyond me.

[Luc 4,776]

7 minutes ago, Benji said:

I'm not underestimating or overestimating anything. Like I said above, not many people in parliament want to really leave the EU. Parliament won't allow Theresa May to trigger Article 50 unless she agrees to approaching the EU with a soft break that keeps the trade deals and movement of people intact.

Every country seems to assume that the UK really would just jump and commit economical suicide but it knows what it's doing. We either delay Theresa May until someone else can come up and cancel Brexit or we agree to do it softly. There's no need to talk about a hard Brexit because no one would agree to it.

There's a conservative majority in parliament and a large part of Labour MPs come from Brexit-majority areas (even >60% majority areas). A majority of parliament for article 50 is guaranteed, and so is a majority for a hard Brexit.

The conservatives could care less about the economics of the UK. Time and time again they have proven they only care about politics, which means that they'd rather reduce immigration to 0 and win the next elections than have durable economic growth. That's how they also put the country's future at stake by promising a referendum.

[Benji 20,113]

1 minute ago, Luc said:

There's a conservative majority in parliament and a large part of Labour MPs come from Brexit-majority areas (even >60% majority areas). A majority of parliament for article 50 is guaranteed, and so is a majority for a hard Brexit.

The conservatives could care less about the economics of the UK. Time and time again they have proven they only care about politics, which means that they'd rather reduce immigration to 0 and win the next elections than have durable economic growth. That's how they also put the country's future at stake by promising a referendum.

There may be a conservative majority, but a majority of the party did not want to leave the EU and seeing post-referendum backlash would have helped solidify their stance on what Brexit has to be and not be. A large majority of parliament was against Brexit and it's now in their hands. Can she get a majority vote with a hard Brexit when MPs know they can simply vote her down in favour of a softer one? Doubt it.

But yeah, your last point I 100% agree with. The referendum was a dumb move and just a cheap way to steal votes. It should have never happened or it should have been handled completely differently.