104 Year Old Presidential Predictor Reveals Our Next President

[SISTERV 3,887]

The most accurate and oldest political scientific predictor has revealed who will win the 2016 Presidential Election, and it's shocking.

According to its data which has been wildly accurate for every election since its inception in 1912, it bases who will based on primary votes, who was president before and their party perception, specifically what swing states are being won, momentum statistics, and targets independent voters and their likeliness to swing towards candidates. (The model only failed by a slight margin of error ONE TIME in 1960, an election many believed at the time, was rigged).

The results: 

DEMOCRATS: Bernie Sanders will hold out very far until the Democratic convention, but finally cave into Hillary in his final moments, giving Hillary the nomination for the Democratic Party. This will create a division in the Democratic Party that many will see as establishment vs. antiestablishment within the Democratic Party, and will also leave many Bernie supporters feeling disenfranchised.

REPUBLICANS: Donald Trump is set to obtain the right amount of delegates of 1237 to get the nod to the White House, but an establishment GOP that is tied to big banks and Wall Street will try and push through a GOP establishment candidate like Jeb Bush or John Kasich at a Brokered Convention. Ultimately, though, this will backfire on the GOP because Ted Cruz (also considered somewhat of an outsider) is in second. The fact the party will dodge it's two top candidates will work as an advantage to Trump, who will be undoubtedly the nominee, and will give disenfranchised Ted Cruz supporters (who will pick Trump over Hillary) and (believe it or not) anti establishment Bernie supporters who don't necessarily agree with Trump but want to politically "flip off the system" a reason to come together behind Trump. 

FINAL ELECTION IN NOVEMBER: The numbers favor Hillary in about a million vote popular vote difference, but this actually works against Hillary. The states that so bombastically support Hillary are red states in primaries and in super blue states like California. In a general election, her big primary wins against Bernie in southern red states will overarchingly go to Trump in a general election. Hillary needs independent swing states like Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida to win. Quite simply, the numbers dramatically say she won't. It's literally, numerically, scientifically impossible at this point. Since Trump gains these states that 2008 and 2012 Obama won to secure his victory, the election will lead to a Trump win. 

Source: http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says

 

Mind you, something dramatic could change, socially. But numerically this is a Republican won election. And people aren't supporting Hillary enough and there is a massive worry Bernie supporters will just not vote for her, or not vote at all if she gets the nod. It also does help Trump because we have switched from Democrat to Republican consistently often, each President serving two terms, followed by the opposing party taking over. You must understand that Al Gore had over a million more votes than George W. Bush in 2000, but because he was weak in swing states like Florida, the Presidency was handed to Bush. It is not a popular vote. It is a representative vote. And Hillary doesn't spread her wings numerically the way Trump has over ALL the states, not just the big ones. 

 

[LebaneseDude 6,146]

Implying Donald Trump is going to get the nomination.

[President Biden 5,898]

Ew. Not if Bernie wins tho

[SISTERV 3,887]

2 minutes ago, Bernie Sanders said:

Ew. Not if Bernie wins tho

Get out and vote folks!

[PunkTheFunk 125,733]

Yikes. Praying for you America

[Emvee 8,858]

This is why Bernie needs to win the nomination. 

Hillary doesn't stand a chance against the message that Trump is spreading to republicans and the right leaning independents. 

[REALITY 80,246]

I have just enough faith in humanity and this country to believe that he's not going to become the president. 

Spoiler

But that faith is running short. 

 

[JustAnotherDay 8,402]

It really shows how far fear-mongering can get you 

[Seeka 12,372]

That's if Trump survives my knife.

Which is undoubtedly impossible.

[SISTERV 3,887]

5 minutes ago, Rising said:

This is why Bernie needs to win the nomination. 

Hillary doesn't stand a chance against the message that Trump is spreading to republicans and the right leaning independents. 

Ikr?

The Press just said today that over 212,000 democrats in Pennsylvania asked to switch their party to REPUBLICAN to vote for Trump in their state's upcoming primary. (Pennsylvania has alot of independent democrats that could swing towards Trump) 

This is a PRIME and MASSIVE reason Hillary cannot win the middle ground of factory workers, coal miners, manufacturing people who will trust a business person before a lifelong politician.

[SISTERV 3,887]

19 minutes ago, LebaneseDude said:

Implying Donald Trump is going to get the nomination.

I doubt very seriously he won't.

It would be one thing if the candidate in second place were one of the GOP's prized golden boys like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush or even John Kasich. Then they could maybe swing it at Trump that the second place guy "represents the party better" or the swing delegates "feel they'd have a better chance".

Unfortunately their 2nd place guy (who still is incredibly far behind Trump) is another outsider they hate. 

90% of the states went for Trump and Cruz. 10% went for Rubio or Carson. They'd immediately disenfranchise 90% of the voters. They'd never do that. There would be utter bedlum.

That would be like the democrats pushing through Martin O'Malley. 

[LebaneseDude 6,146]

1 hour ago, SISTERV said:

I doubt very seriously he won't.

It would be one thing if the candidate in second place were one of the GOP's prized golden boys like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush or even John Kasich. Then they could maybe swing it at Trump that the second place guy "represents the party better" or the swing delegates "feel they'd have a better chance".

Unfortunately their 2nd place guy (who still is incredibly far behind Trump) is another outsider they hate. 

90% of the states went for Trump and Cruz. 10% went for Rubio or Carson. They'd immediately disenfranchise 90% of the voters. They'd never do that. There would be utter bedlum.

That would be like the democrats pushing through Martin O'Malley. 

I expect the nominee to be Cruz.

He's worse than Trump, but he won't win vs Hillary or Bernie.

[JbGaga 2,261]

I dont see the section where he or she says _____________ is going to win tho

[Lion Heart 15,041]

The Press just said today that over 212,000 democrats in Pennsylvania asked to switch their party to REPUBLICAN..

 

Yes, this is something known as 'strategic voting.' Here's a really good piece that summarizes what this is: 

https://www.indianagazette.com/news/reg-national-world/pennsylvania-voters-swap-political-parties-in-record-numbers,23938788/

The latest statistics this week from Pennsylvania’s elections bureau show about 245,000 registered voters have switched this year, or 3 percent of the state’s 8.2 million registered voters.

This is the first year voter registration in the state can be done online, making it easier than getting the paperwork, filling it out and submitting it. But many of those switching parties reported wanting to vote in Pennsylvania’s April 26 primary, and the switching accelerated in the weeks before Monday’s deadline to register to vote or change registration.

..

Among those making a switch, about half became Republicans, according to state statistics as of Monday. One-third became Democrats and the rest joined a minor party or registered as unaffiliated.

..

Some party switchers have been positioning themselves to help a candidate they supported, Madonna said.

“But as we’ve gotten close to the deadline, a lot of Democrats have changed to do what political scientists call ‘strategic voting.’” Madonna said. That could include people voting for Trump because they think Clinton can beat him more easily, or voting against Trump out of dislike or fear, Madonna said.

The movement also could be helping one of Trump’s GOP rivals, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Madonna said.

Those who switched their registration and were interviewed by The Associated Press or other news organizations gave a variety of reasons for their decision.

Some like Jason Arnold, of Harrisburg, reported becoming a Democrat to vote for Sanders. “Bernie was the only one who was dealing with the income issue,” said Arnold, who had been registered as a Libertarian.

Valerie Bonacci, of Scranton, switched her registration from Democrat to Republican to support Kasich, whom she views as the most experienced GOP candidate for the job, although if Kasich and Clinton win their party nominations, she will be torn over whom to support.

“I’m playing a strategic game,” Bonacci said. “I think Hillary has (the Democratic primary election) pretty wrapped up here in Pennsylvania, so for my vote during the primary to have any kind of effect, it could be best used by voting for Kasich.”

While most party switchers joined the Republican Party, the news wasn’t all good for the GOP.

More unaffiliated or third-party voters joined the Democratic Party this year — 52,200 became a Democrat while 42,600 switched to the GOP — and Democrats signed up more new voters this year, 70,000 to 55,500, according to state data. Pennsylvania has supported a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988 and Democrats headed into the primary with a significant advantage, slightly above 4 million voters to nearly 3.1 million GOP voters.

 

[Lion Heart 15,041]

(double post)