Economy 53,135 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/06/04/bakken-bazhenov-shale-oil/#750dcc7c182f The largest shale formation in the world (Bazhenov) in Russia has been known about for years but now private companies have begun drilling for testing. The results show about 400 barrels per drilled well about the same recovery rate as in the US Bakken only this formation is 80X larger The recoverable oil reserves may be as high as 2 trillion barrels, which is more oil than the world has used since the industrial revolution, and more oil combined than the current top 5 Oil Nations by reserves (Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq) This gigantic discovery is even larger than the recent discovery of large shale formations found in Northern Canada, the Oil Carbonates under Canadas Oil Sands, and all the reserves found in Australia and Brazil via Deep Sea Drilling The world now has so much oil available that at current consumption oil supply problems may not occur for centuries Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nino 12 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Let's all say goodbye to the concept of oil scarcity Bye you drain on humanity Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AM98GJ 3,086 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Since the industrial revolution?!?! Jesus that's huge, but if it lowers the pressures on dwindling fossil fuels will it reduce the incentive to invest in renewables? I hope not Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jylee 66 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Does this mean I'll never be able to shop in the states with my crappy Canadian dollar anymore? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 53,135 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, jylee said: Does this mean I'll never be able to shop in the states with my crappy Canadian dollar anymore? It means Canada either needs to learn to lower production costs, or replace oil industry with something else u cant be the worlds marginal producer when theres oversupply. Canadas oil industry is f*cked if it cant compete if prices remain low, and new production comes from else where, Canada having the worlds largest peoduction costs will be the first country to see it go at least the investment anyway. Canadas oil Sand fields take a long time to depleate so any project already paid for and set up will stay running until the oil in that area is gone (which for some oil sands projects will be as long as 50 years) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 53,135 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 14 minutes ago, AM98GJ said: Since the industrial revolution?!?! Jesus that's huge, but if it lowers the pressures on dwindling fossil fuels will it reduce the incentive to invest in renewables? I hope not Umm the free market wont. But the government can still push it ur talking about EVs right? cause we dont use much oil for electricity. The fossil fuels we use more are Coal and Natural Gas Oil is more heavily consumed for transportation, oil products (like plastics, fertilizers, asphalt, pesticides, oil paints etc), and heating oil for the places that still use that. Oil prices and supply dont affect electricity much if thats what u were refering to. Electric cars is the only thing it may delay Also the reserves may be huge but shale and most new reserves weve discovered are more expensive to extract than liquid oil. We may not have expensive oil again like we did 2006-2013 but it wont be as cheap as it was before 2000s either but oil pressures even without this discovery would drop. US Shale alone and the Oil Sources in Canada were already adding a lot of new oil, hence the oil price crash Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 53,135 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 13 minutes ago, Nino said: Let's all say goodbye to the concept of oil scarcity Bye you drain on humanity They already have been talking about peak oil way less the past 5-7 years than when i was in school Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
i medici 1,746 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Oh god this means the price of oil will go even lower. C'Mon I need my penny's. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 53,135 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 1 minute ago, i medici said: Oh god this means the price of oil will go even lower. C'Mon I need my penny's. Lol no. Will take years for organized commercial drilling and the cost of production for shale and all the new sources weve found recently suggests prices will have to be at least $50/barrel or more long term if prices are too low, doesnt matter how much oil we find, no company will invest the money in drilling wells if it wont pay back costs Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katharine Hepburn 4,607 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Yay more pollution xoxo Joanne Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Temptation 11,209 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Why hasn't the oil price plummeted? Law of supply and demand says that the greater the supply the lower the price. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 53,135 Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 13 minutes ago, Lord Temptation said: Why hasn't the oil price plummeted? Law of supply and demand says that the greater the supply the lower the price. Theres no new supply from this tho assuming these estimates are correct which sometimes they arent (just look at the 96% reduction in reserves in California due to faulty studying innitially)... Still, it will be years before commercial drilling is set up a few companies for surveying purposes have drilled some wells to test the productivity of that formation but to set up new infrastructure in that area, transportation for whats produced, roads, power, pipelines/rail etc... Were looking at no meaningful supply from this for another 5-10 years even if they start plans immediately What MAY happen in 5-10 years wont have any major impact with bets traders make right at this moment and as such, oil did not plummet from these estimates Also these are industry estimates. It may be a while before these turn into recognized and widely accepted official "proven reserves" (assuming the hype is warranted) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Temptation 11,209 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 39 minutes ago, Economy said: Theres no new supply from this tho assuming these estimates are correct which sometimes they arent (just look at the 96% reduction in reserves in California due to faulty studying innitially)... Still, it will be years before commercial drilling is set up a few companies for surveying purposes have drilled some wells to test the productivity of that formation but to set up new infrastructure in that area, transportation for whats produced, roads, power, pipelines/rail etc... Were looking at no meaningful supply from this for another 5-10 years even if they start plans immediately What MAY happen in 5-10 years wont have any major impact with bets traders make right at this moment and as such, oil did not plummet from these estimates Also these are industry estimates. It may be a while before these turn into recognized and widely accepted official "proven reserves" (assuming the hype is warranted) No, not at all. I'm not talking about the cost of extraction. I'm talking about the efficient market hypothesis and price elasticity. Oil seems to be as plentiful as drinking water. The price of oil should plummet, but it hasn't. Which proves that the oil market is highly inefficient. But we all knew that anyway. OPEC, the global oil cartel, sets prices by excluding supply. Not the market. Economics is not a narrative. That is journalistic economics. It is statistical physics applied to strategic decision makers who have unequal access to grey, incomplete information. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rino 5,132 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 well that's truly rediculous 月にかわって、おしおきよ！🌙 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 53,135 Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 45 minutes ago, Lord Temptation said: No, not at all. I'm not talking about the cost of extraction. I'm talking about the efficient market hypothesis and price elasticity. Oil seems to be as plentiful as drinking water. The price of oil should plummet, but it hasn't. Which proves that the oil market is highly inefficient. But we all knew that anyway. OPEC, the global oil cartel, sets prices by excluding supply. Not the market. Economics is not a narrative. That is journalistic economics. It is statistical physics applied to strategic decision makers who have unequal access to grey, incomplete information. Its not that simple. Opec has hardly done anything this time around since the glut began in 2014 to cut supply to lift prices because they were fighting for market share. In fact only now they are finally talking about the possibility of a productiom freeze but not cut Oil is a traded comodity and its value is in part influenced by investors because u can buy and sell oil and futures contracts Oil investors know that the cost of extraction for most projects globaly is over $45 to $50 a barrel and so every expert knows these prices are not sustainable... With the current prices, there is not enough investment in new fields to meet future demand once existing operating fields dry up so investors know prices WILL go up and they know the oversupply WONT stay around so investors are already lricing in future price hikes today in their trades The cost of extraction DOES matter because it tells unwhether its sustainable or not. If oil prices are below average production costs, you know the comodity is under valued and the oversupply situation will not last the dynamics with supply and demand and its impact in prices are different with traded comodities vs everything else. For most things its about competition among businesses and what consumers are willing to pay. But with traded comodities, speculation plays a role too cause investors literally make bets buying and selling the comodity Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.99c40bc2a10ded8236a48b4fe15c6be8.jpg)
Featured Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.