Economy 52,844 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/ Some economists are sounding the alarms that Canada could be about to enter a recession by the end of 2015 due to a terrible combination of bad factors Canada actually has an inverted yield curve in which Government borrowing costs have fallen lower than the Central Banks rate of 0.75%. When Bond market rates fall this sharply and below the Central Banks rate it often signals panic and pessimism among investors seeking safe-heavens and recessions shortly after are not rare First of all oil prices continue to remain low and oil is a huge industry in Canada. While the oil companies themselves can survive a long time with low prices, their investments are way down resulting in job losses in companies that support oil sands development Household debt is extremely high and the over-heated housing market appears to be slowing suggesting the bubble may be about to peak. Price appreciation is slowing and so is construction. Could the house of cards be about to fall? A weaker currency and improving US should be helping manufacturing and exports but it isnt. The likely explanation is that the manufacturing sector took so much damage between 2010 and 2012 when the currency was high at the same time foreign demand weak that now there will be a long delay before they recover enough to be able to invest in expansion The Federal Government seems to be trying to force a budget surplus at all costs for next year to keep election promises. Austerity may add to economic pressure even further If oil prices rebound, and manufacturing finally picks up... a downward spiral may be avoided. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsterdreams 1,529 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh dear, how bad exactly would this be Haters gonna need more than a flashlight for my shade Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh dear, how bad exactly would this bevery hard to say. Depends on a number of factors Its also possible nothing bad will happen and that enery and manufacturing will gradually improve and provide a foundation for a gradual correction in housing and consumer debt rather than a bubble burst like in 2007-2008 in the US. The point is Canadians have overspent big time, real-estate is super over valued etc and these imbalances COULD lead to a crash and downward spiral if something sets it off cause the economy becames so fragile when you have that many imbalances and such large bubbles The Government cutting soending to try to force a surplus, and the slowdown from the energy sector could be the trigger that sets it off especially if the struggling manufacturing continues to struggle to recover as fast as they hope despite cheaper energy, lower currency and improving US Quite possibly nothing bad will happen. Canadas financial system and banks are highly resilient and low interest rates will help keep real-estate and consumer spending from collapsing as imbalanced as it may be But there is a real possibility stuff could go seriously wrong. Canada is like a ginga bulding full of missing blocks right now. Its super fragile with all these imbalances. Hopefully nothig sets off a chain reaction :shrug: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingOfSpain 10,010 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 http://gagadaily.com/forums/topic/227246-ceremony-gagas-videography-megarate/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
UrethraFranklin 434 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wish me luck... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ByeBye49 161 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiphEret 1,320 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh...and I am supposed to move to Canada soon I never understand economy anyways... Sur le sable sur la neige, Sur les images dorées,Sur le front de mes amis, J’écris ton nom Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh...and I am supposed to move to Canada soon I never understand economy anyways... which part of the Country? And for what reason? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig 680 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 They've been predicting a drop in housing prices for 5 years, yet prices have risen. The oil sector will drag us down, but aside from Target Canada lol, our stores won't have empty shelves like oil-dependent Venezuela. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiphEret 1,320 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 which part of the Country? And for what reason? In Québec, Montréal, to study and hopefully stay there and work afterwards Sur le sable sur la neige, Sur les images dorées,Sur le front de mes amis, J’écris ton nom Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 They've been predicting a drop in housing prices for 5 years, yet prices have risen. The oil sector will drag us down, but aside from Target Canada lol, our stores won't have empty shelves like oil-dependent Venezuela.but hats cause interest rates didnt go up like they thought it would. But prices have gotten to the point where even if rates dont rise, prices cannot appreciate much more cuz in relation to incomes its too unaffordable Also home ownership rates are at a record high of 70% making the pool of potential first time home buyers smaller so construction must slow Lastly these imbalances often need something to trigger a downturn like the low oil prices And empty shelves or no empty shelves are irrelevant. That has to do with other stuff Hopefully nothing will happen tho. This is a risk not a certainty Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 In Québec, Montréal, to study and hopefully stay there and work afterwardsoh Ok. Central Canada (Ontario and Quebec) wont be as affected by the oil and comodity slump since they are more industrial/manufacturing based. Hopefully lower energy prices, weaker currency and improving US will finally kickstart our manufacturing growth again but there may be a delay Also Quebec has a less over-heated real-estate than the rest of Canada. Prices there and construction is more sustainable The odds of a downturn in Ontario and Quebec are lower than in Canada as a whole. However Central Canada does have a weaker economy to begin with in relation to the rest of Canada especially Quebec sooo... I dunno I guess ull be fine :yes: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joumana 463 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 In Québec, Montréal, to study and hopefully stay there and work afterwards Same omg guess whos up in this bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiphEret 1,320 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Same omg yeah? which university and what do you want to study? Sur le sable sur la neige, Sur les images dorées,Sur le front de mes amis, J’écris ton nom Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miker 5,683 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 There goes the spending habits that Canadians have. They will be holding on to their money now. It will be great for U.S. spenders though. Mars..........or bust! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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