65% Chance Of W.W Recession in 2015

[Economy 52,861]

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-10/predictors-of-29-crash-see-65-chance-of-2015-recession.html

The same company that forecasted the 1929 crash that led to the great depression, and also predicted the 2008 financial crisis is sounding the alarms again giving a 65% chance of a recession next year

They say although there is positive fundamentals in the US... All other major economies remain highly imbalanced, unstable, and weak

Europe has virtually no room left to cut rates to improve stimulus, its debt crisis remains an issue and their economic growth is stalling again

China has a major real-estate bubble, and banks are highly leveraged. It is unclear at this time if their bubble will pop and cause a crash, or merely deflate

Japan... Well they are the lost case of the past 20 years. But recent increased stimulus that is failing to work puts more pressure on their financial problems

Stockmarkts are also over-valued because investors were expecting economic growth that is failing to take traction and we could be in for a painful pullback

The company says any of these issues getting worse could lead to a chain reaction, and the US economy alone cant save the world. In fact there is a chance the US could be pulled with it

There is a 35% chance they say, that none of the major issues will worsen

[HANZ 4,380]

China has a major real-estate bubble, and banks are highly leveraged. It is unclear at this time if their bubble will pop and cause a crash, or merely deflate

 

I didn't know this

 

[True Blue 47]

the last one aint even over yet

[Economy 52,861]

the last one aint even over yet

last what?

[Yves 1,891]

This is quite depressing :noparty:

[Economy 52,861]

I didn't know this

yes. Exports didnt perform as well last 6-7 years and they have been trying to get growth in other areas

One thing they are doing is encouraging growth in the service and consumer soending area. Thats good. Purchasing power is rising for the average Chineese as their economy matures and they need to build a domestic economy

But the Government also encouraged a lot of lending between banks and u sustainable spending in infrastructure. They even built some gosht cities where nobody lives in them. They built them for the sake of building them becauses they needed the stimulus and to keep economic growth going

They have major imbalances there now... Not all bubbles pop. U can have a gradual correction without a crash if conditions allow. But it all depends on a number of different things and its hard to say

Also if they chose to sell some of their currency fund to tap into money reserves to help stimulate the economy during the correction, it could cause major debasing in other currencies and cause financial instability

[Luc 4,776]

Should I tell my parents to sell all their shares and investments besides the US ones?

[HANZ 4,380]

yes. Exports didnt perform as well last 6-7 years and they have been trying to get growth in other areas

One thing they are doing is encouraging growth in the service and consumer soending area. Thats good. Purchasing power is rising for the average Chineese as their economy matures and they need to build a domestic economy

But the Government also encouraged a lot of lending between banks and u sustainable spending in infrastructure. They even built some gosht cities where nobody lives in them. They built them for the sake of building them becauses they needed the stimulus and to keep economic growth going

They have major imbalances there now... Not all bubbles pop. U can have a gradual correction without a crash if conditions allow. But it all depends on a number of different things and its hard to say

Also if they chose to sell some of their currency fund to tap into money reserves to help stimulate the economy during the correction, it could cause major debasing in other currencies and cause financial instability

OMG MESS

 

I just searched it on google and it's true China does have ghost cities

 

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/marketplace-25/chinas-economic-boom-leaves-trail-ghost-cities

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-ghost-cities-in-2014-2014-6

 

 

look at this empty mall, it's empty because it is localed in a city where nobody lives in :air:  

 

Chernobyl who?

 

meanwhile the poor sis Japan lacks of land

 

[Altair 2,003]

your threads scare me :/

[Economy 52,861]

Should I tell my parents to sell all their shares and investments besides the US ones?

well if the world destabalized... US stocks would drop even if the economy resisted

But its hard to say. Its possible nothing bad will happen. This is also just 1 forecast companies opinion.

Ive been cautious lately with investments. Thats what my advice is. Caution

[MonsterOfSpain 8,331]

But the Government also encouraged a lot of lending between banks and u sustainable spending in infrastructure. They even built some gosht cities where nobody lives in them. They built them for the sake of building them becauses they needed the stimulus and to keep economic growth going

 

Spain teas.  :air:

[Economy 52,861]

OMG MESS

I just searched it on google and it's true China does have ghost cities

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/marketplace-25/chinas-economic-boom-leaves-trail-ghost-cities

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-ghost-cities-in-2014-2014-6

look at this empty mall, it's empty because it is localed in a city where nobody lives in :air:

Chernobyl who?

meanwhile the poor sis Japan lacks of land

yeah they did this for stimulus

They also have an oversupply of residence and laws of supply and demand dont justify overvalud prices

And banks there have major leverage in that realestate market