Magoo 6 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 So CMA will have effect on both Applause & Venus? Yes; Complete My Album will however have a much bigger effect on Applause than on Venus, because Applause will have been out much longer when ARTPOP is released. The CMA effect is typically to negate the sales of the lead single by 15-20% of the opening week album sales and a second single by about 5%. So If ARTPOP sells 500K in its debut week the CMA effect for Applause will be around -75 to -100K and for Venus maybe -25K. The above however is before the apparent change in rule that when there is an album pre-order, then any singles are automatically delivered to the holder of that pre-order, and all those extra sales have to be negated also. So if there are 60K itunes preorders already when Venus is released, all those 60K will be subtracted off when the album is released together will any album completions made without the pre-order... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paper Gangsta 6,693 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 imagine this scenario: 27th Oct.: Venus release- due to pre-orders effect will rock at #10 and will give the song the top 10 exposure after that 28th Oct huge radio deal like whole week + video release on Vevo and then Audio video release for more streaming] + fans buying the song and the GP buying it = #1 on the HOT 100 is that possible if she could break Applause's views for 1 day and get like 8 to 10 m views per day through the whole week+ the radio deal giving like 40m Ai + 300+k sales could this be enough for Venus to top BB ? Um she has 50-60k preorders so far, it will probably skyrocket her to #1 on itunes, not only top10. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Americano 31,061 Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 They might not add Venus to people's pre-orders on day one. They didnt add DH's sales for over 2 weeks after. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dangerous Man 9,245 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Um she has 50-60k preorders so far, it will probably skyrocket her to #1 on itunes, not only top10. Depends on how much Lorde is selling daily. :hor: "A little less conversation and a little more touch my body." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foivos 64 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I think Gaga won't reach #1 with a single this era. Sorry. You are just pessimistic.. You have not heard the song yet.. ACCORDING TO YOUR THEORY NO SONG CAN GO NO1 BECAUSE ROYALS AND FOX ARE DOING WELL.. Sorry but you are so wrong. Depends on how much Lorde is selling daily. It sells 340k per week which is nearly 50k per day. So only with preorders it will go number 1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paper Gangsta 6,693 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 They might not add Venus to people's pre-orders on day one. They didnt add DH's sales for over 2 weeks after. cause that effect only started happening recently Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Lam 598 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Heard Applause 2 times this morning on my way to school ! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dangerous Man 9,245 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 You are just pessimistic.. You have not heard the song yet.. ACCORDING TO YOUR THEORY NO SONG CAN GO NO1 BECAUSE ROYALS AND FOX ARE DOING WELL.. Sorry but you are so wrong. It sells 340k per week which is nearly 50k per day. So only with preorders it will go number 1. Acc. to Magoo we just need 75K first day sales to hit number 1 if the #1 song is selling 50K daily so yeah! Inb4 haters call it iTunes Payola. :smh: "A little less conversation and a little more touch my body." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luc 4,775 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Um she has 50-60k preorders so far, it will probably skyrocket her to #1 on itunes, not only top10. Aren't Taylor, 1D and Justin releasing that week too? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Americano 31,061 Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Heard Applause 2 times this morning on my way to school ! Yup, Applause has done very well on Canadian radio. Top 10 on both pop and HAC. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luc 4,775 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 You are just pessimistic.. You have not heard the song yet.. ACCORDING TO YOUR THEORY NO SONG CAN GO NO1 BECAUSE ROYALS AND FOX ARE DOING WELL.. Sorry but you are so wrong. It sells 340k per week which is nearly 50k per day. So only with preorders it will go number 1. It's extremely hard for Gaga, look at Katy, she only managed to get #1 for one week with monstrous sales, streaming and airplay. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foivos 64 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 TO end the conversation. Venus CAN debute number 1. IF: 1. IS NOT RELEASED ON SUNDAY MORNING BUT NIGHT 2. DEBUTES WITH 260k sales + 65k from preorders 3. GETS LOT OF STREAMING (10 million first day and ~6m the other days) 4. GETS GREAT RADIO DEAL (~30m AI) 5. Unconditional sales starting to fall and rolling effect harming its AI 6. Royals has peaked on radio and sales. Aren't Taylor, 1D and Justin releasing that week too? Taylor's song is just a soundtrack and I predict hitting 3rd place on Itunes and starting falling 4th day. Justin is releasing every Monsay but do not expect a Heartbreaker alike performance as it will be the 4th song in a row. And 1D's sales are more froantloaded than anyone's else. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Americano 31,061 Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Royals has weeks to go IMO. And unless Venus is already being edited, it wont be out in time for Gaga to get that kind of streaming Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luc 4,775 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 TO end the conversation. Venus CAN debute number 1. IF: 1. IS NOT RELEASED ON SUNDAY MORNING BUT NIGHT 2. DEBUTES WITH 260k sales + 65k from preorders 3. GETS LOT OF STREAMING (10 million first day and ~6m the other days) 4. GETS GREAT RADIO DEAL (~30m AI) 5. Unconditional sales starting to fall and rolling effect harming its AI 6. Royals has peaked on radio and sales. 1. Agreed, it has a better chance when released at night. 2. Not very likely, Applause, the lead single, sold 218k in its first 6 days. I doubt the second single which is much less anticipated would sell 1,5x better first week. 3. 10 million US streams first day is nearly impossible, Applause got about 2~3 mil US streams first day. 4. Radio deal is almost certain, and even without a radio deal it would get more than 30 mil AI first week. I'd say 50~70 mil AI first week would be much better. 5. Dont worry about Unconditionally: it's not hitting #1 in its first weeks 6. Long time to go Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foivos 64 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Royals has weeks to go IMO. And unless Venus is already being edited, it wont be out in time for Gaga to get that kind of streaming I don't think she will risk again different time of single and video release. SHE MUST GET THAT NUMBER 1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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