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Americano

Applause is a month and a half old. It's still soon to be killing a song that's nearing 100M AI.

 

That's like killing Summertime Sadness 4 weeks ago.

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Americano

we want new single now. ARTPOP must return on the top 10 iTunes US :(

 

No. We don't.

 

WHO is going to PRE-ORDER a DIGITAL album other than fans? It's going to freefall regardless

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Please note that Kworb predictions atm are incorrect because:

1. It has only been up for about 3 days: the system isn't working good and the computer-coded system will probably handle things better time by time.

2. Lorde has been rising a lot and it doesn't seem like Kworb includes that in the predictions for Applause, Roar and other songs. Applause will probably sell at least 10% more because Lorde is rising much faster than any other song and is at number 1. All the information comes from % off the total, so if Applause sells 40% of Royals, it just uses Royals' previous statistics while Applause was selling 50% of Royals this week.

3. They are a 7-day projection not taking into account weekend rise, promo appearances, day/night fall, etc.

 

Probably;

 

Estimating absolute digital sales from itunes figures is difficult because they only give relative sales versus the #1 song.  When I do the calibration I start with assuming the song at #30 is the selling the same as the #30 song last week - but to do that sometimes a lot of songs that are temporary residents have to be omitted before working out the effective #30 - for example a rush of Voice or Glee songs have to be ignored.  For this week it is all the extra album tracks of Drake that have to be ignored in the calibration.  All those tracks add up to quite a lot of sales and if included in the calculation then established tracks will be given too low an estimate in the balancing.  There is no way to fully automate it.  As the week goes on the Drake album tracks should start to disappear which makes the calibration easier.

 

Another way to do the calibration is to assume that the total sales in the week of the songs from #5 - #25 as (selected at the beginning of the week before new entries come in) add up to the same.  So in my calibration last week these added up to 1891K and this week to 1875K.

 

Of course one week might have higher or lower sales across the board than the previous week and there is no solution for that.

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Americano

 

We don't need another single till like October 20th.

 

 

Agreed. Unless Applause suddenly peaks on radio before we're expecting.

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We don't need another single till like October 20th.

 

 

 

Or probably a week or two after that - but whenever it is, it should not be announced much in advance, else other artists' teams will be able to work out how to undermine it by timing their own releases to better effect.

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Agreed. Unless Applause suddenly peaks on radio before we're expecting.

Honestly, even if it's dropping, it's still not time to release a new single. As long as she's still above 70 mil AI it's not time for a new single unless 70 mil AI is something easy for you (read: unless you're Katy Perry).

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Americano

Well you wanna release the next single when Applause is beginning to fall so stations replace Applause's spins with the next single's spins. (I agree they should wait a bit, not while its still at 100M or w/e. Thatd be insane)

 

It usually works. Only issue is that during the BTW era, Interscope kept getting excited and announcing singles etc before we even got to that point. It got a lil crazy

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