2026 Midterm Discussions (Polls, updates, and more)

[PartySick 173,726]

3 minutes ago, pucihendzap said:

When the election is, what's the democrats chances, how it will impact on Europe and if they will make ab orange monkey impeachment?

It really depends on how thoroughly Dems wanna be a check on Trump's power.

If we win just the house that means, aside from opening sweeping congressional investigations into anyone who's even said the name "Trump", Dems will basically control the nation's money and they can torpedo most of Trump/Republicans' initiatives, leaving both in a lame duck status.

If Dems win both the house and the senate (with 51, preferably 52 seats) then it really is wraps for Trump. Not sure if they'll try impeachments again but every breath he takes will be challenged, the mess in Iran will start to come to an end (if Dems get 52 seats, Fetterman may defect to Republicans' side on Israel and Iran issues) 'cause Dems will limit his war powers and revoke the budget for it, it really depends on what you're asking about specifically I guess.

Currently, I'd say Democrats taking back the house is nearly a 90% chance and the senate is a tossup which is insane because the map itself should be VERY favorable for the Republicans. Just shows you how unpopular Trump and Republicans are right now.

[PartySick 173,726]

4 minutes ago, Economy said:

Who do u think the democratic nominee will be in 2028? (For President)

Probably someone on nobody's radar right now

[Bronco 26,870]

23 minutes ago, PartySick said:

I hope so. I have a feeling she's just pulling a Kamala and keeping the speculation alive so she has the media attention 'cause as soon as either says "I'm not running" they'll be ignored entirely.

This is about 2028 but I don't think Kamala's actually gonna run. Supposedly she just bought a house in Malibu which isn't the kind of thing someone does a year before they campaign to live in the White House for 4 or 8 years

I personally think Kamala is deliberately trying to make herself the kingmaker for 2028. 

[Bronco 26,870]

17 minutes ago, PartySick said:

Probably someone on nobody's radar right now

Forever praying for Sherrod Brown to grow a pair

[Samwilliam 89]

As someone who was very skeptical for months that democrats could take the Senate, things are looking pretty good for them.  I would not be surprised to see them squeak out even some of these states that people still have as lean republican.  I think Nate Silver increased his odds of democrats taking the Senate to around 60 percent. 

[PartySick 173,726]

1 hour ago, Bronco said:

I personally think Kamala is deliberately trying to make herself the kingmaker for 2028. 

That or biding (Bidening?) her time. She's only 61. She could wait until 2036 to run and still be younger than Trump and Biden were/are at the age they left/are leaving office  and by that time Biden and 2024 won't be such a noose around her neck.

But that's just me thinking out loud. I like her and would happily support her this time around if she ran for 2028  

[PartySick 173,726]

1 hour ago, Samwilliam said:

As someone who was very skeptical for months that democrats could take the Senate, things are looking pretty good for them.  I would not be surprised to see them squeak out even some of these states that people still have as lean republican.  I think Nate Silver increased his odds of democrats taking the Senate to around 60 percent. 

Swing states tend to break one way or the other. If we're getting across the finish line in places like Texas or Ohio then we've definitely won the states we need for a majority.

[PartySick 173,726]

1 hour ago, Bronco said:

Forever praying for Sherrod Brown to grow a pair

I've never looked into him other than him being the "god pick" for Ohio and basically the only Democrat that could win there.

Though, it's the same issue with Ossoff. Whether or not they'll want to go immediately from a senate campaign to a presidential campaign.

Personally, if I voted for a senator and they immediately turned around and chased office I'd be pissed, especially if Bottoms (GA) and Acton (OH) don't win their governor races. Then we're literally sacrificing a critical senate seat that tips the scales in a razor thin majority.

[PartySick 173,726]

@pucihendzap I did some more snooping around 'cause I'm bored and jobless (after I get off work, that is ).

The most major things a Democratic congress (both house and senate control) would do for Europe is reaffirm our loyalty to NATO (leaving NATO requires two-thirds of congress anyway, the president can't do it) and keeping American troops and bases in countries like Germany, Poland, the Baltics, etc for defense of both American interests and those countries and a reaffirmation of our alliances.

While Trump has influence as executive on the delivery of aid, Democrats would ensure Ukraine defense and humanitarian aid is fully funded. If Trump delays or refuses to send the funds that congress has provided for a certain cause the Democrats can use the Impoundment Control Act (passed in 1974 when Nixon was being a bitch ) to FORCE him to approve what they've passed.

The big one is a Democratic congress could strike certain powers away from the executive branch to limit or remove entirely Trump's ability to start trade wars or impose tariffs via the "International Emergency Economic Powers Act" or Section 232. Democrats would not only have the power to do that, Trump's sh*t economy and how pissed off Americans are about it would behoove them to. Imagine the PR boon Democrats would be passing up if they didn't  beef is literally $40+ a pound because of that man.

Democrats would also have sanctions power and while Israel will likely never be a "victim" of that power, other bad actors, like Russia, definitely could and would be.

Democrats would have the power to approve or deny diplomats, ambassadors, and officials and anyone not willing to commit to traditional alliances and trade norms would be rejected or filibustered (assuming Dems can hold the line...again, post-stroke Fetterman is a real risk/spoiler and a few others might be swayed by seemingly "normal" nominees for certain seats).

The power I'm hoping they use the most is oversight and subpoena powers. While nothing will really get through Trump's crooked ass DOJ to an actual trial and conviction, Democratic gavels could start compiling evidence as soon as January of next year then the SECOND a Democratic president walks into office in 2029, that hits their desk and the American version of the Nuremberg trials begins  

[PartySick 173,726]

@Economy gathered some polling data  I'm using 270towin, they provide an average of polling data from late July and throughout August. It's the best way I know of to give us an idea of things  

Texas:
🔵 46% Talarico
🔴 43.2% Paxton

Georgia:
🔵 51% Ossoff
🔴 43% Collins 

North Carolina:
🔵 51.6% Cooper
🔴 42.6% Whatley

Ohio:
🔵 50.5% Brown
🔴 44.5% Husted

Michigan:
🔵 46.6% El-Sayed
🔴 44.4% Rogers

Alaska:
🔵 47% Peltola
🔴 41% Sullivan

Iowa:
🔴 46.5% Hinson
🔵 43% Turek

Arkansas:
🔵 47% Shoffner
🔴 44% Cotton

New Hampshire:
🔵 45.5% Pappas
🔴 43% Sununu

New Hampshire has me concerned now 'cause Pappas isn't very popular with the left and Sununu is well known and usually over performs. He's even leading in one of the polls  

Also, jk about Arkansas  that's an outlier poll, the real aggregate has the Republican up by 6 but that's abysmal for a state that Trump won by 30% just a year and a half ago.

Also also, Alaska polling is confusing 'cause they use rank choice voting there and idek if they're technically done with their primary yet but in a head to head, the leading Republican loses to Peltola who's already proven she can win statewide 'cause she beat Sarah Palin (John McCain's 2008 vice presidential pick) in 2022 for a congressional seat  

Also x3, Michigan is expected to get better for El-Sayed the further away from the primaries we get. He had a lot of mud thrown on him and the establishment Dems are still wary of backing him ('cause they're racist Israelphiles and he's a progressive Muslim that thinks funding the killing of innocents is wrong but hey you didn't hear that from me I just think it's weird that they're so comfortable lashing out at Arab candidates in their own party while they run against actual kiddie f*ckers, weird huh?). 

ANYWAY, Dems are the incumbent party in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire so they need to defend those seats (and they likely will). Any other race won from this list will be a pickup.

We need AT LEAST 4 pickups to win senate majority, 5 would be better so that dumbass in Pennsylvania doesn't become Manchin/Sinema 3.0 and vote with the Republicans because he's an ignorant half brain-dead bastard.

We're currently leading in all races except Iowa  

And Arkansas  

[PartySick 173,726]

13 minutes ago, PartySick said:

@Economy gathered some polling data  I'm using 270towin, they provide an average of polling data from late July and throughout August. It's the best way I know of to give us an idea of things  

Texas:
🔵 46% Talarico
🔴 43.2% Paxton

Georgia:
🔵 51% Ossoff
🔴 43% Collins 

North Carolina:
🔵 51.6% Cooper
🔴 42.6% Whatley

Ohio:
🔵 50.5% Brown
🔴 44.5% Husted

Michigan:
🔵 46.6% El-Sayed
🔴 44.4% Rogers

Alaska:
🔵 47% Peltola
🔴 41% Sullivan

Iowa:
🔴 46.5% Hinson
🔵 43% Turek

Arkansas:
🔵 47% Shoffner
🔴 44% Cotton

New Hampshire:
🔵 45.5% Pappas
🔴 43% Sununu

New Hampshire has me concerned now 'cause Pappas isn't very popular with the left and Sununu is well known and usually over performs. He's even leading in one of the polls  

Also, jk about Arkansas  that's an outlier poll, the real aggregate has the Republican up by 6 but that's abysmal for a state that Trump won by 30% just a year and a half ago.

Also also, Alaska polling is confusing 'cause they use rank choice voting there and idek if they're technically done with their primary yet but in a head to head, the leading Republican loses to Peltola who's already proven she can win statewide 'cause she beat Sarah Palin (John McCain's 2008 vice presidential pick) in 2022 for a congressional seat  

Also x3, Michigan is expected to get better for El-Sayed the further away from the primaries we get. He had a lot of mud thrown on him and the establishment Dems are still wary of backing him ('cause they're racist Israelphiles and he's a progressive Muslim that thinks funding the killing of innocents is wrong but hey you didn't hear that from me I just think it's weird that they're so comfortable lashing out at Arab candidates in their own party while they run against actual kiddie f*ckers, weird huh?). 

ANYWAY, Dems are the incumbent party in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire so they need to defend those seats (and they likely will). Any other race won from this list will be a pickup.

We need AT LEAST 4 pickups to win senate majority, 5 would be better so that dumbass in Pennsylvania doesn't become Manchin/Sinema 3.0 and vote with the Republicans because he's an ignorant half brain-dead bastard.

We're currently leading in all races except Iowa  

And Arkansas  

I forgot something  

In Kansas, the Democrat is only trailing by ~4% in the latest polls but almost certainly won't win.

In Nebraska, the Independent candidate is tied with the Republican. He hasn't signaled which party he'd caucus with if he wins (he actually lowkey said he wouldn't caucus with either party) but he has the unofficial, non-financial backing of the Dem party to hopefully unseat another Republican.

There isn't any good polling I can find for Florida other than one having my girl Nixon down by 10%  I can dream but I don't think we're competitive here

[PartySick 173,726]

This is fun  

It's like football or soccer but for drastically more dire stakes

[Economy 53,002]

11 minutes ago, PartySick said:

I forgot something  

In Kansas, the Democrat is only trailing by ~4% in the latest polls but almost certainly won't win.

In Nebraska, the Independent candidate is tied with the Republican. He hasn't signaled which party he'd caucus with if he wins (he actually lowkey said he wouldn't caucus with either party) but he has the unofficial, non-financial backing of the Dem party to hopefully unseat another Republican.

There isn't any good polling I can find for Florida other than one having my girl Nixon down by 10%  I can dream but I don't think we're competitive here

Well good luck (to all of us)

 

America is one of the few countries we gwnuinely have a stake in as outsiders cuz its large size affects everyone (especially when your Country borders no one else but them)

[PartySick 173,726]

18 minutes ago, Economy said:

Well good luck (to all of us)

 

America is one of the few countries we gwnuinely have a stake in as outsiders cuz its large size affects everyone (especially when your Country borders no one else but them)

Canada technically borders Denmark though if we snatch up Greenland we'll be your only neighbor  

Pray we make the right choices, I have a feeling most/all of these races will be decided by ~2% margins

[ALonelyNight 681]

38 minutes ago, PartySick said:

And Arkansas  

I literally have no earthly clue where that poll came from haha. Arkansas elected a Democratic governor in 2010, Mike Beebe, who won by an enormous margin. Since then Republicans have dominated everything.