The A.I. Backlash Could Get Very Ugly

May 16

6 hours ago, RAMROD said:

In a worst-case scenario, the situation could get ugly. With its potential for sweeping social and economic transformation, “AI generates the structural conditions historically associated with the onset of political violence,” Yannick Veilleux-Lepage, a researcher who studies technology and terrorism, wrote in April.

I genuinely don't think this is the worst case scenario.

I think it is the realistic outcome when you look at the economic issues present in western nations present before AI stepped in. AI makes the standard solutions to those issues obsolete because it prevents them working..

May 16

1 hour ago, Economy said:

If we do get an economic collapse soon like 2008/2009 severity it will likely be triggered because of energy crisis and strait of hormuz not because of AI

The two aren't seperate though.

The AI resource consumption is a major factor in brewing energy crises and the industry is particularly under threat by the Strait of Hormuz blockade impacting global shipping which the US tech industry relies on for its supply chains.

So if the situation continues without change, the trigger point will be the energy crisis forming as a result of the Hormuz blockade. But the economic collapse will be the losses on the stockmarket for companies like OpenAI which has billions in debt and Nvidia which is the most valuable country in the world.

Like if Nvidia loses 1%, that's a loss of 50 billion dollars. A crash is seen as a sudden loss of 10% or more - so in Nvidia's case a sudden loss of 500 billion US dollars. And as we all know - a sudden crash in 1 stock scares the market leading to runs on similar shares.

May 16

23 minutes ago, Bronco said:

The two aren't seperate though.

The AI resource consumption is a major factor in brewing energy crises and the industry is particularly under threat by the Strait of Hormuz blockade impacting global shipping which the US tech industry relies on for its supply chains.

So if the situation continues without change, the trigger point will be the energy crisis forming as a result of the Hormuz blockade. But the economic collapse will be the losses on the stockmarket for companies like OpenAI which has billions in debt and Nvidia which is the most valuable country in the world.

Like if Nvidia loses 1%, that's a loss of 50 billion dollars. A crash is seen as a sudden loss of 10% or more - so in Nvidia's case a sudden loss of 500 billion US dollars. And as we all know - a sudden crash in 1 stock scares the market leading to runs on similar shares.

Agreed they correlate, I dont disagree with anything u said but the context of my response I think was in a bit of a different angle. Tho they interconnect it wouldnt be AI bubble self collapsing under the scenario I was discussion. Strait of hormuz and energy crisis would still be the trigger (along with other non energy shortages as well like fertilizer and hellium)

I was speaking in terms of a pretty major economic downturn caused because of AI specifically as they were talking about jobs being lost because of AI. In that context I dont think AI would have cause a major downturn on its own because its not a sudden shift, it would happen over a few years and hurt specific individuals but not necessairily cause 10% level unemployment like 2008 financial crisis on its one. On the otherhand this energy crisis if it continues I think could on its own trigger a global recession even if AI had never become a thing.

I think the world economy is in fact at risk but imo only because a lot of other imbalances are existing simultaneously along side any fragilities AI might have introduced so they all add up and compound

Were short a massive amount of energy all of a sudden from this disruption. Thats a sudden bottle that dwarfs any strain cause by AI on the grid (at least in the short term)

Edited May 16 by Economy

May 16

I absolutely hate Generative AI and the people who use it, I hate people posting their ai "artwork" acting like they did something by writing a prompt lol. Even more ridiculous when they get mad because someone "stole" their prompt... so ironic.

It gives low intelligence and no talent to me. Using ai as a way to make up for their lack of skill. That goes for generating text and image/video.

I can't even search something online anymore without being bombarded by dozens of fake images before I get to a real one.

May 16

1 hour ago, Economy said:

Agreed they correlate, I dont disagree with anything u said but the context of my response I think was in a bit of a different angle. Tho they interconnect it wouldnt be AI bubble self collapsing under the scenario I was discussion. Strait of hormuz and energy crisis would still be the trigger (along with other non energy shortages as well like fertilizer and hellium)

I was speaking in terms of a pretty major economic downturn caused because of AI specifically as they were talking about jobs being lost because of AI. In that context I dont think AI would have cause a major downturn on its own because its not a sudden shift, it would happen over a few years and hurt specific individuals but not necessairily cause 10% level unemployment like 2008 financial crisis on its one. On the otherhand this energy crisis if it continues I think could on its own trigger a global recession even if AI had never become a thing.

I think the world economy is in fact at risk but imo only because a lot of other imbalances are existing simultaneously along side any fragilities AI might have introduced so they all add up and compound

Were short a massive amount of energy all of a sudden from this disruption. Thats a sudden bottle that dwarfs any strain cause by AI on the grid (at least in the short term)

I still think an independent AI bubble burst is likely within the next 3 to 4 years. But its obviously dependent on the current conflict and associated crises.

But for the independent bubble burst - within the next 12 to 24 months most companies that heavily invested in AI efficiencies will be hitting that point where project post-mortems and return rate analysis will be happening. And I fully expect a lot of companies to walk back their AI usage as its just realistically not led to the promised efficiencies because of artificially forced expansion into areas it just isnt proven or well designed for yet. It won't be a dramatic bubble burst, but definitely expect a market correction.

In tech circles, I'm already seeing talk of companies rehiring/expanding junior roles that were cut for AI efficiencies being reopened because c-suites have realised that the current cost of using AI (which is often per request token based if developed via platforms like salesforce) for these low level/junior tasks is more expensive and less efficient than it is to have the junior employee. And there's a growing consensus that replacing junior levels with AI has increased workload in some roles for middle and senior levels to a point where its just not possible to actually manage without increasing middle/senior staff populations which then erases the economic gains of letting juniors go.