So now that we know, lets talk chances

[andy232000 12,478]

1 minute ago, REALITY said:

Imo, the split difference between ROTY and SOTY isn't that much. Also, Abra's production is constantly emphasized whenever people talk about that particular song. The songwriting is good, but not SOTY worthy. I still think that it has a better shot at ROTY than SOTY. Honestly, I was surprised it was even nominated for SOTY

I might be wrong! I tend to go more by the numbers cause its a technique I have used when predicting in the past that hasn't failed me. Even retroactively, I have seen how the pop splits cause some "larger songs" to lose. Like when Harry beat out both Beyonce and Adele, and such. 

But if Abra wins, it still makes a ton of sense cause in the endvthere will always be voters who will prioritize production over everything else. 

[FameHookah 4,692]

40 minutes ago, Rahrahbitchson said:

If im being totally honest, as much as i want AOTY/ROTY/SOTY for her. I think she is only getting Best Pop Solo, Best Pop Album and Best Dance Song, i think those 3 are very on lock 

Grammy's always doing the total opposite of who people think should win those big categories i mentioned, i wont be surprised if they give it to someone we totally didnt expected to win. I feel that in ROTY either Luther, Apt or Manchild are winning and in AOTY i have a strong feeling with DtMF

SOTY is the category with the least chances IMO

This  i hate how political pop has become so we know the winners already

[andy232000 12,478]

Another REALLY important detail is that Bad Bunny CANNOT campaign at all. His world tour begins in late November and will spawn shows across latam all through December. On top of that, he has to prepare for the Superbowl, so no chance he will be doing appearances or interviews. 

In contrast, Kendrick and Gaga wrap their 2025 shows right at the beginning of the voting period, so they can campaign. Kendrick hasn't been doing **** since the superbowl, but given his worst-case scenario came true, I could anticipate him choosing to do something last minute. 

[VTV 12,977]

10 minutes ago, Blackout19 said:

you can call me crazy, but she will win at least 6

I hope she and Sabrina will be the big winners

[nodandsmile 11,024]

17 minutes ago, HeavyCapiLover said:

I heard that Brat was actually the second choice after Cowboy Carter for AOTY last year, and honestly it kinda makes sense. Brat had not only cultural and commercial success, but it was also an incredible work in terms of production, artistic creativity and even lyrics. Cowboy Carter was going to win anyway.

I dont think that the fact that Mayhem is a dance pop album is whats going to lesser its chance of winning. If anything, what will definitly settle the results, is the amount of votes that will go for Bad Bunny. 

I was talking about dance music's chances to win in the gf mainly for Abracadabra; but even Charli missed SOTY, maybe that's an advantage for Gaga  

[Levine 23,732]

It depends on how big were the Sabrina and Justin paychecks

[MountainMonster 971]

I predict a clean sweep. I said what I said.

[Killa 17,851]

15 minutes ago, Levine said:

It depends on how big were the Sabrina and Justin paychecks

You're not going tò agree with me nor anyone here but swag Is surprisingly really good album.. theres an atmosphere, sort of landscape It takes you in. Production was pretty neat. A very adult project. Very cohesive Also from what i Remember. 

[River 119,126]

1 hour ago, REALITY said:

Imo, the split difference between ROTY and SOTY isn't that much. Also, Abra's production is constantly emphasized whenever people talk about that particular song. The songwriting is good, but not SOTY worthy. I still think that it has a better shot at ROTY than SOTY. Honestly, I was surprised it was even nominated for SOTY

it's weird, lyrically, *we* think that it's not her best work, but outside of the fanbase, people are praising her about how she could make a word as simple as abracadabra, as catchy and unique as only she can do.

[andy232000 12,478]

6 minutes ago, River said:

it's weird, lyrically, *we* think that it's not her best work, but outside of the fanbase, people are praising her about how she could make a word as simple as abracadabra, as catchy and unique as only she can do.

Yeah the fans discredit Abras songwritting so quickly...like do you know how hard it is to make a quirky lyric like Abra-cadabra-amor-ooh-na-na not sound stupid? There is genius behind that composition. Its like comedy, it looks plain and simple but its one of the hardest things to land. 

[Anderson123 39,158]

Best chance: Abracadabra for Best Pop Dance Recording.

Great chance: Mayhem for Pop Vocal Album. 

Good chance: Disease for Pop Solo.

50/50 chance: Harlequin Traditional Pop Vocal Album.

Some chance: Record of the Year.

Low chance: Album of The Year, Song of the Year.

[REALITY 77,770]

18 minutes ago, River said:

it's weird, lyrically, *we* think that it's not her best work, but outside of the fanbase, people are praising her about how she could make a word as simple as abracadabra, as catchy and unique as only she can do.

That’s fair. Though, I have to be completely honest. I know this is gonna get me crucified (and before anyone comes for me, MAYHEM *is* my favorite Gaga album), but I think the overall lyricism and songwriting on MAYHEM is weaker than almost all of her other albums. Tbf, many of the songs aren’t meant to be super deep or introspective, but I think the songwriting on MAYHEM is far from the album’s strong point. 

[Tranquil 104]

I totally agree with Gaga having the highest chance at winning Album of the Year. I posted in a different thread but this is my opinion going into Album of the Year,

The Clipse nomination might be the biggest factor against Kendrick's chance at winning it. I did a bit of research (mostly checked the Kendrick Lamar subreddit) and there are vocal fans that believe Clipse has the better rap album. CHROMAKOPIA further dilutes Kendrick's chance at winning it.

I don't think Bad Bunny has it in the bag either. Based on my research, Bad Bunny has NEVER won the Latin Grammy for Album of the Year. I doubt the new Grammy voters have enough numbers to push it now. 

Only wildcard I see is Sabrina pulling some pop votes away from Gaga but Sabrina's album wasn't THAT huge.

This is all speculation but I think Gaga's chances are the highest ever. I hope I'm not proven wrong.

[HeavyCapiLover 3,938]

1 hour ago, nodandsmile said:

I was talking about dance music's chances to win in the gf mainly for Abracadabra; but even Charli missed SOTY, maybe that's an advantage for Gaga  

Charli wasnt nominated for SOTY, it was ROTY but I dont think that her loss in that category was a surprise. She was competing against Kendrick, Taylor, Billie, Sabrina and Beyonce lmao she would have never won that. I do agree that gaga has much more chances of winning in the dance categories than one of the big 4, but given the sucess of Abra + the fact that she has 7 noms (the most she's ever had) + the noms in the production categories, give her a much bigger chance of wining either SOTY, ROTY or AOTY. But she probably wont win all of them. I can see her wining ROTY tbh bc the production is a very important criteria for this category 

[Nagini 3,419]

I really don't understand why this fanbase is constantly discounting her chances for AOTY when the math seems to be more in our favor than ever before. She deserves it and the odds are increasingly in her favor. Bad Bunny still has a hill to climb with the vast majority of voters who do not speak Spanish and Kendrick's base splitting across 3-4 respectable albums. The only person peeling away Gaga's votes is Sabrina-- but be honest. Are you voting for an ok-received album that had controversy surrounding the cover, or an album from a powerhouse vet who has more talent in her pinky than Justin Bieber & Sabrina combined?

Can we please start supporting Gaga and stop assuming that she's #2 compared to everybody else when the work and math do not suggest that whatsoever...