Will Gaga win the album of the year?

[zzbrandon 94]

Not this time, i guess maybe in her late era, grammy maybe be kind to her

 

[zzbrandon 94]

i think next year grammy aoty winner will be a dark horse, samara joy might winning if she nomineed 

[zzbrandon 94]

jon batiste and samara joy might surprise winning again, i doubt kendrick winning,or bad bunny, or gaga, 

[zzbrandon 94]

Sabrina might winning at record or song of the year, or sweep at general field i won't surprise

[pachinko 10,429]

Yes pls! 

[julz 7,279]

I want a Joanne Grammy surprise win moment for her. I am certain that Abra will win something. I hope and pray MAYHEM will win something too. A General field win will be a cherry on top, and i hope she performs!

[lavender blonde 678]

Tbh if she won’t, it’s on her and her team . Mayhem is an incredible album and one of her best. It’s a shame they only released two singles  I think she should’ve made Garden of Eden a third single and then followed by Vanish Into You. A music video made of a tour footage with fans would suit VIY and promote the stadium tour I much believe will be happening next year.

[julz 7,279]

Guys.... HARLEQUIN is also still here 

[Nagini 2,632]

Yes. I know because I said so. 

[andy232000 11,732]

4 hours ago, Skyana Rava said:

Debi Tirar más Fotos (DTmF) will win, I hope. I think MAYHEM deserves it, but I have said before that DtmF is an extremely important development in global music, and a Latin Music popular breakthrough unlike anything since 2000's Shakira. Indeed, Puerto Rican culture and stories are being spread across the globe, allowing people to recognize the cultural power and beauty of the tiny territory. Not only that, but the music itself is a unique almagamation of indigenous music, latin music, carribean music, and pop music.

Plus people be dancing to that sh*t. 

It's about time a Latin Music artist won, and DTmF is the ideal candidate.

MAYHEM deserves, yet I think DTmF is the more "of the moment" of the two. Gaga will have another chance. 

While I agree with this, less than 5% of the voting pool are Latino music experts. Bad Bunny doesn’t have the voting muscle to pull of a win. And much less so when Kendrick and Gaga are also in the running 

[andy232000 11,732]

I will be making a very detailed and extensive thread once nominations are out. I have all the updated data regarding the demographics of the recording academy’s voting members and I have been keeping tabs on all potential AOTY nominees to narrow down who will win. There are three major contenders: Kendrick, Gaga and Bad Bunny

Out of those three, realistically and mathematically speaking, only Kendrick and Gaga have the voting muscles to win. Bad Bunny’s success is much more global than it is local, and while he deserves the win for such a politically charged and relevant project, I do not see him converting enough pop, rap, RnB and American voters to surpass local acts. 
 

Gaga does have a chance at winning, most fans think she doesn’t. But the truth is that Mayhem is a critically acclaimed album and has the advantage of having the support of the biggest voting pool. I won’t bore you all with the numbers, but almost 1/3 of the academy leans towards pop. This means that, if there is no vote split within pop records inside the AOTY category, the chances of Gaga having 1/3 of the votes are massive, and that alone could be enough to pull off the win. Her biggest issue arises with that pop split. If someone like Sabrina Carpenter, or Lorde get nominated in AOTY, she could lose force. Likewise, Kendrick would also be affected by a vote split of more RnB and Hip Hop albums are nominated -actually- he would be 100% screwed, because hip hop is a much MUCH smaller voting pool, so he NEEDS to “steal votes” from all other genres. Kendrick’s path to AOTY is much more volatile because one little deviation and he’s very affected. Gaga’s path can withstand losing support. At the end of the day, Gaga has the mathematical advantage, but it will all come down with how many Pop voters stay loyal to her and how many votes in other fields Kendrick can capture. 
 

I personally think Gaga’s team are really fumbling the bag with the AOTY narrative because they lost all momentum from Copacabana to now (hopefully about to be revived with The Dead Dance). They still have time to push it. The REAL period to make the campaign is now (September), because nominees are chosen on October 3rd-6th. Then after that, throughout all October there is no need to campaign as much because it’s all chosen by then. Nominations are announced on November 7th. Once we know if Mayhem gets nominated, from November all the way to January is the second campaigning period were they HAVE TO GO HARD. Gaga still has chance, but they have to campaign.

As of now, the optics lean towards an “overdue win” for Kendrick. Which is ironic because Gaga has also lost AOTY the same amount of times and arguably is a bigger act than Kendrick this year. They need to also lean into that.

Edited Saturday at 03:14 PM by andy232000

[Nagini 2,632]

20 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

I will be making a very detailed and extensive thread once nominations are out. I have all the updated data regarding the demographics of the recording academy’s voting members and I have been keeping tabs on all potential AOTY nominees to narrow down who will win. There are three major contenders: Kendrick, Gaga and Bad Bunny

I love your stat on the Jazz base. Once the Scammys stopped fudging the final nominations, we saw AOTY/ROTY nominations for Love For Sale. The review committee probably removed ASIB from the final AOTY nominations as well. I hope the Jazz base shows out for Gaga.

Edited Saturday at 03:34 PM by Nagini

[elegidadedios 2,152]

It is her most deserving project to win AOTY, but I don't think it'll happen. I think Gaga is condemned to win AOTY when it gets ridiculously ridiculous not to (even more so), ala Beyoncé this year. She'll definitely sweep in lots of GRAMMYs though. For example, Best Pop Vocal Album is on lock for me

Edited Saturday at 04:24 PM by elegidadedios

[elijahfan 26,315]

If she hasn’t won it with BTW, she won’t win it with Mayhem. Let’s be real for a second.

[elsamars 1,343]

Men’s Best Friend will