Canada Official Elections Thread (April 28th)

[Economy 52,844]

Livestream added:

 

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Thought with elections just a few days away on April 28th, its time to make a thread where we can discuss developments 

 

M. Carney^   P. Poilievre^  J. Singh^   Y. Blanchet^

 

For those who dont know much about it and want a crash course... Trudeau had one of the lowest approval ratings in Prime Minister history and pressure kept mounting that hed resign. 3 months ago the expectations where that Conservatives led By Pierre Poilievre would win majority, and the Centrist Liberals might perform so poorly they may not even win opposition status and the Left Wing NDP that usually comes 3rd might over take the Liberals

 

Fast Forward to now the New Liberal Leader (and current Prime Minister) Mark Carney (who was the head of both UKs and Canadas Central Bank and has background both in economics and private sector) has made the Liberals surge not only past the NDP but past the Conservatives as well and with a 42% polling they may win a majority government

 

It is the first time in history that a party in power for nearly a decade and polling so low managed such a strong turn around so quickly

[Economy 52,844]

Poll tracker:

 

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

As of April 24Th

 

1. Liberals: 42.2% (Centrists)

2. Conservatives 38.5% (Right Wing)

3. NDP 8.8% (Left Wing)

4. Bloc Quebecois 6.0% (Seperatists)

5. Green Party 2.3% (Far Left)

6. PPC 1.5% (Far-Right, Libertarian like)

[Gagaism 12,471]

Just hoping for the best and may Canada will keep on standing up for the country whilst the craziness going on in the USA right now.

[Lucas 31,110]

6 hours ago, Economy said:

It is the first time in history that a party in power for nearly a decade and polling so low managed such a strong turn around so quickly

Could that be "thanks" to Trump admin? Canadian people might've realised that going conservative (in this case like the USA) is actually not a good idea?

[Bronco 24,950]

6 hours ago, Economy said:

Poll tracker:

 

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

As of April 24Th

 

1. Liberals: 42.2% (Centrists)

2. Conservatives 38.5% (Right Wing)

3. NDP 8.8% (Left Wing)

4. Bloc Quebecois 6.0% (Seperatists)

5. Green Party 2.3% (Far Left)

6. PPC 1.5% (Far-Right, Libertarian like)

Honestly can not even think of another election like this one where a surging opposition party is heir apparent and throws away the lead so suddenly.

Its insane how the MAGA movement has kneecapped multiple western hemisphere conservative parties trying to replicate it.

[Bronco 24,950]

17 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Could that be "thanks" to Trump admin? Canadian people might've realised that going conservative (in this case like the USA) is actually not a good idea?

If you look at the opinion polling data the sharp swing lines up with 2 key events.

1)Trudeau resigning - led to a small poll bump that showed signs of sustainability.

2)Trump's inauguration, tariff war and 51st state narrative - when the real shot in the arm effect emerged on polling and actually started dragging the Conservative vote down from its peak. 

[Lucas 31,110]

5 minutes ago, Bronco said:

2)Trump's inauguration, tariff war and 51st state narrative - when the real shot in the arm effect emerged on polling and actually started dragging the Conservative vote down from its peak. 

Wow if only this could have the same effect on France where the extreme right party is most likely to win even though they've just lost a court case for stealing public european money and giving fake jobs to their family members 

[Economy 52,844]

4 hours ago, Lucas said:

Could that be "thanks" to Trump admin? Canadian people might've realised that going conservative (in this case like the USA) is actually not a good idea?

I think Trump and Maga definitely turned off a few moderates thinking of going conservative especially when Trump started attacking Canada not just with Tarrifs but worse when he kept going at it with the 51 State Comments and calling the PM a Governor which is insulting

 

Although Poilievre is no where near as extreme as Trump people can still see a few parallels if not at least the arragant tone he has when he speaks and criticizes which is typical of a lot of conservatives

 

I think Trump also helped by shifting the mood on what Canadians want... They want a serious leader and stability and predictability above all else with Americas threats

 

Carney has extensive experience both as a successful business man but also as the former Central Bank Chairman of both Canada during 2008 crisis and the UK during Brexit crisis. He also has a more serious and tempered personality

 

Ppl may have decided that predictability and seriousness at this uncertain time is preferable to taking big risks with a career politician (Poilievre) promising a lot of change that may or may not workout

 

But beyond Trumps influence theres Trudeau himself vs Carney. Trudeau was clearly more left and especially after they formed coalition with Left Wing NDP, the lines became even more blurred between the 2 parties splitting a lot of voters intentions. When people got tired of Trudeau the NDP presented an alternative for people of the same ideology. Meanwhile genuine Centrists who were tired of Trudeau started flocking Conservative even though they didnt necessessairily love Poilievre or usually vote Conservative because there was no Centrist option to choose from

 

Carney is more of a traditional Liberal Centrist and the impacts of that on polling may prove thats an even bigger factor than Trump because most of the Liberals recovery were actually losses for the NDP, the Conservatives took some hit to polling too as discussed but not as much as NDP did. The NDP were looking at being official opposition for the first time in decades and now they have been decimated to single digit polling numbers which is worse than last election. Usually they get at the very least low double digits

[Economy 52,844]

Poll updated. Not much changed

 

Liberals - up 0.1%

Conservatives - up 0.1%

NDP - Down 0.2%

Bloc Quebecois - flat

Green - flat

PPC - down 0.1%

 

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

[Economy 52,844]

@GagaSine @Torontomonster @JustinTrudeau @juicyjuicy @VANTABLACK @StarstruckIllusion and all other Canadians I keep forgetting. Are the liberals gonna win by majority or minority?

 

non Canadians who may be interested in our politics:

@Morphine Prince @PartySick @River @littlepotter

[Bronco 24,950]

@Economy what day is the election? 
And are you expecting a majority or a minority with likely confidence & supply for the Liberals? 

[Economy 52,844]

1 minute ago, Bronco said:

@Economy what day is the election? 
And are you expecting a majority or a minority with likely confidence & supply for the Liberals? 

Unclear!

 

It seems almost certain Liberals will win. Although a 4% lead may not seem like a huge lead and practically within the 2% to 3% margin of error, it is considered the Liberals are near certain to win because of the way the votes are divided by riding (unless the polls are way off). Basically at the Federal level, the Liberals have more efficient votes spread out than the Conservatives and the Conservatives need a bigger lead to win more seats (the opposite of USA with Republicans vs Democrats)

 

That said whether they will win by minority or majority seems to be a close call. More experts lean towards majority than minority but a minority is still a real possobility

 

Theres also concern that some strategic Left Wing voters that nornally go NDP but were gonna vote for Centrist Carney in order to keep out the Conservatives are now getting confident Poilievre wont win and they may go back to voting NDP giving up some recent support for the Liberal to give their NDP party more seats tho its unclear how much impact exactly this will have

[chromatic puzea 10,653]

i've also been so shocked by the turn around
i also thought conservatives and NDP would have more seats than liberal

i agree that its gonna be a liberal win but i think it'll be a minority, but idk
all my friends my age obviously hate pp but my parents and aunts & uncles are riding the pp train hard
and then on my grandparent's street in rural niagara with a much older population, every house has either a PPC or christian party of canada sign 

i feel like the f*ck trudeau train ppl are really gonna want to turn out for PP and mark carney was giving joe biden glitching during the debate right after PP actually gave a good response on harsher sentences for dangerous criminals

also i thought for SURE ford was losing the provincial. i HATE the ford family. but they won with such a huge majority so idek anymore. like his win was announced within minutes of polls closing

[PartySick 172,486]

Why bother with the elections? Trump is gonna be your president after we liberate Canada 🇺🇸

[Economy 52,844]

19 hours ago, chromatic puzea said:

i've also been so shocked by the turn around
i also thought conservatives and NDP would have more seats than liberal

i agree that its gonna be a liberal win but i think it'll be a minority, but idk
all my friends my age obviously hate pp but my parents and aunts & uncles are riding the pp train hard
and then on my grandparent's street in rural niagara with a much older population, every house has either a PPC or christian party of canada sign 

i feel like the f*ck trudeau train ppl are really gonna want to turn out for PP and mark carney was giving joe biden glitching during the debate right after PP actually gave a good response on harsher sentences for dangerous criminals

also i thought for SURE ford was losing the provincial. i HATE the ford family. but they won with such a huge majority so idek anymore. like his win was announced within minutes of polls closing

Looooool hell no. Ford has good ratings. Thats literally why he called an election early, cuz he knew hed win majority again now and secure himself for another 5 years

 

No one bought his mandate excuse for early election but he has enough support ge was bound to win regardless of that stunt