JPMorgan: US will enter recession in 2025

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

JPMorgan believes the US economy will enter a recession in the back half of 2025 as the impact of President Trump tariffs takes hold in the economy.

The firm's chief US economist Michael Feroli sees a two-quarter recession occurring in the back half of 2025 as GDP contracts by 1% in the third quarter of the year and by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2025, Feroli's team projects GDP will fall by 0.3%.

"We now expect real GDP [gross domestic product] to contract under the weight of the tariffs," Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday night.

Feroli added that a "recession in economic activity" will push the unemployment rate up to 5.3%. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday showed the unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in March. While other economists have noted the risks to recession are rising, JPMorgan marks the first major Wall Street research team to forecast a recession as Trump's tariffs weigh on economic growth.

"The pinch from higher prices that we expect in coming months may hit harder than in the post-pandemic inflation spike, as nominal income growth has been moderating recently, as opposed to accelerating in the earlier episode," Feroli wrote. "Moreover, in an environment of heightened uncertainty consumers may be reluctant to dip too far into savings to finance spending growth."

Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/jpmorgan-becomes-the-first-wall-street-bank-to-forecast-a-us-recession-following-trumps-tariffs-222019272.html

 

[RAMROD 117,118]

And this is not just a prediction either. It will happen 

[hamartia 3,029]

Spoiler

(this is like my third time advocating for a certain somebody to get shot lmao pls don't give me a warning point)

[MACATL 2,128]

Gee, It’s almost as if the economy is being purposely wrecked and government is being purposely dismantled.  Wow - just shocking and totally not predicted.  

[iAstroLeo 14,452]

Are the Americans tired of winning yet?

[sarahb 17,188]

If there's one thing, one thing that wakes voters up it's not having as much money in their pockets as they did before, just saying

[SpadesToStart 3,808]

As an American who stands to personally take a financial hit from the next few years, if recession is what it takes to finally get rid of MAGA, then so be it. 

This country is sick and the cancer has metastasized. It’s time for chemo.

[BornAsUnic0rn 2,247]

6 minutes ago, sarahb said:

If there's one thing, one thing that wakes voters up it's not having as much money in their pockets as they did before, just saying

But they are wrecking the economy at the beginning of the term, hoping for the numbers to improve again at the end of the term. Blame Dems for how it started and make people believe you turned things around, easy.  Most voters vote on the vibe in last 6 months and their memory only goes so far back, the whole 4 years don’t matter sh*t, just saying.

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

40 minutes ago, BornAsUnic0rn said:

But they are wrecking the economy at the beginning of the term, hoping for the numbers to improve again at the end of the term. Blame Dems for how it started and make people believe you turned things around, easy.  Most voters vote on the vibe in last 6 months and their memory only goes so far back, the whole 4 years don’t matter sh*t, just saying.

Midterms are next year. They will remember especially as the recession is coming at the end of 2025. 

[Pennywise 36,080]

My favorite chocolate already went from $3.5 to $5 

[Lucas 31,131]

1 hour ago, sarahb said:

If there's one thing, one thing that wakes voters up it's not having as much money in their pockets as they did before, just saying

republicans don't think rationally. Trump says something and they swallow every word

[Neroneau 1,017]

Its so funny cuz like for example : AA, Delta and United were expecting to have one their best years ever . Daily flights to Sicily , thrice daily to Naples, 7 daily to Athens , new destinations across secondary European cities . They were talking of expanding into Africa again . All those butts filling those seats were doing so because the economy was doing well and outlook was good . Economic canaries will always be spending on art and travel . And those down down down 

[Economy 52,861]

In Canada the contraction could be 3% since our economy is more reliant on trade (both imports and exports are a higher percentage of our GDP than the US and both have tarrifs now due to retaliation)

[Rahrahbitchson 23,267]

Looks like America is falling off from the coconut tree IJBOL 💅🏻

[27monster27 15,869]

MAGA is literally on the cusp of doing more damage to the economy in 2025 than COVID-19 in 2020. Insane.