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AOTY: Mayhem and its realistic chances


andy232000
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andy232000
57 minutes ago, Ladle Ghoulash said:

To Pimp a Butterfly - Kendrick Lamar 

Harry Style won over Renaissance and Midnights over SOS. Pop records can still win despite recent changes. 

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lastpopicon
3 hours ago, andy232000 said:

A new small update! 

Golderby’s combined odds were recently updated, and while Kendrick is still the front runner, his vantage point has decreased. Elton John’s & Brandi Carlile’s album also decreased.

Gaga, on the other hand, went up after her Coachella weekends!

Current odds of winning AOTY:

1.) Kendrick Lamar’s:  13.3%
2.) Lady Gaga: 10.00%
3.) Elton & Brandi: 8.70%

Lil wayne is releasing The Carter VI on junes 6. Could that potentially be eligible for a AOTY and skew the odds towards gaga? Because I heard it could split the rap vote, not sure how truth that is.

The melody that you choose can rescue you
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andy232000
9 minutes ago, lastpopicon said:

Lil wayne is releasing The Carter VI on junes 6. Could that potentially be eligible for a AOTY and skew the odds towards gaga? Because I heard it could split the rap vote, not sure how truth that is.

Yes! Any rap album could split votes, if nominated. Right now Tyler the Creator could be a second potential nominee. He’s not in the top 8 (only 8 nominees), but Lana Del Rey’s album which has not been released is #5 💀, and Samara Joy who is not well known #6. 
 

Lil Wayne has a lot of career history and if it’s a critically acclaimed album then definitely. Playboy Carti also made a decent splash. We should all be rooting for rap albums to be nominated, cause it’s the only way Gaga is wining this 

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Ladle Ghoulash
34 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

Harry Style won over Renaissance and Midnights over SOS. Pop records can still win despite recent changes. 

Yeah and what I’m saying is that 1989, Midnights, and Harry’s House didn’t deserve to win. 

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andy232000
2 hours ago, Ladle Ghoulash said:

Yeah and what I’m saying is that 1989, Midnights, and Harry’s House didn’t deserve to win. 

But they did 🤷🏼‍♂️. Personal opinion on an album doesn’t necessarily negate its chances 

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Ladle Ghoulash
13 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

But they did 🤷🏼‍♂️. Personal opinion on an album doesn’t necessarily negate its chances 

Never said they didn’t nor did I say this had anything to do with MAYHEM’s chances of winning. Please consider reading the context within which a comment was posted before soapboxing, thank you. 

Edited by Ladle Ghoulash
We have forgotten our public MANNERS
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andy232000
3 minutes ago, Ladle Ghoulash said:

Never said they didn’t nor did I say this had anything to do with MAYHEM’s chances of winning. Please consider reading the context within which a comment was posted before soapboxing, thank you. 

I just realized my initial comment wasn’t supposed to reply to you :ladyhaha::brat:

I was replying to the user above who said that Grammy voting pool has changed drastically since 1989 won. I’m sorry! No wonder it made no sense to you lol

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Ladle Ghoulash
1 minute ago, andy232000 said:

I just realized my initial comment wasn’t supposed to reply to you :ladyhaha::brat:

I was replying to the user above who said that Grammy voting pool has changed drastically since 1989 won. I’m sorry! No wonder it made no sense to you lol

All good! 

We have forgotten our public MANNERS
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lastpopicon
3 hours ago, andy232000 said:

Yes! Any rap album could split votes, if nominated. Right now Tyler the Creator could be a second potential nominee. He’s not in the top 8 (only 8 nominees), but Lana Del Rey’s album which has not been released is #5 💀, and Samara Joy who is not well known #6. 

Lil Wayne has a lot of career history and if it’s a critically acclaimed album then definitely. Playboy Carti also made a decent splash. We should all be rooting for rap albums to be nominated, cause it’s the only way Gaga is wining this 

Hope lil wayne breaks all the records this year:Cautious: And the playboi carti commercial success isn't seeming to bad right now :ladyhaha:  I love Kendrick but this is gaga's year and opportunity, sorry. :messga:

Plus, he can win the best rap album, that's pretty good. :Cautious:

The melody that you choose can rescue you
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Ronk

Imo Mayhem deserves AOTY.   Sales, streams, and radio aren't what counts for me. What counts to me is the quality of the songs.  I hope whoever awards AOTY actually listens to the album and doesn't just look at numbers.

I live outside the space time continuum.
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andy232000

Es Sheeran just announced his new album “Play”, out September 12th. He opted to release after this years eligibility period. Sheeran will compete at the 2027 Grammys instead.

This knocks him down as a potential threat to Mayhem. Only artist that poses a threat now in the Pop categories is Harry Styles, who has not teased an upcoming album. Miley’s underwhelming performance also pre-disqualifies her, making Best Pop Dance Recording and Best Pop Vocal Album basically locked categories for Gaga to win! 
 

Best Pop Solo is still up for grabs! But with only 4 months left of the eligibility period, these are my -sort of- final predictions (In the order I think they’ll win):

Pop Solo Performance:

1. Wildflower (Billie Eilish)

2. Disease (Lady Gaga)

3. Messy (Lola Young)

4. Sports Car (Tate McRae)

5. That’s So True (Gracy Abrams)

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monstertoronto

This feels like it’s finally her year. Universal acclaim for her album, one record breaking smash hit, several viral hits, massive sell out tour, rapturously received Coachella and international performances, and general goodwill and love by the public finally.  It’s all coming together this year, and with an album that’s truly deserving. I think the Grammys clearly do like her, as she’s won so many (including for Joanne piano version!), and if they’ve been waiting for the right moment to reward her I think this year is it!

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Maybe I’m being too optimistic but I feel like the chances of winning AOTY and other main categories is pretty strong. This era is going so well and she’s receiving so much praise from both fans and the gp. Mayhem really has everything, it’s a well written and produced album that is acclaimed, and it also happens to be doing great number wise. Just give it to her already :giveup:

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42 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

Es Sheeran just announced his new album “Play”, out September 12th. He opted to release after this years eligibility period. Sheeran will compete at the 2027 Grammys instead.

This knocks him down as a potential threat to Mayhem. Only artist that poses a threat now in the Pop categories is Harry Styles, who has not teased an upcoming album. Miley’s underwhelming performance also pre-disqualifies her, making Best Pop Dance Recording and Best Pop Vocal Album basically locked categories for Gaga to win! 
 

Best Pop Solo is still up for grabs! But with only 4 months left of the eligibility period, these are my -sort of- final predictions (In the order I think they’ll win):

Pop Solo Performance:

1. Wildflower (Billie Eilish)

2. Disease (Lady Gaga)

3. Messy (Lola Young)

4. Sports Car (Tate McRae)

5. That’s So True (Gracy Abrams)

Or maybe she could submit Happy Mistake/ Vanish Into You in Best Pop Solo. Hoping she also submits Killah for Best Pop Duo - imagine the potential sweep in the pop categories :messga: but right now I think the most “locked” Pop categories are Best Dance Pop Recording and Best Pop Vocal Album like what you said

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1 hour ago, andy232000 said:

Pop Solo Performance:

1. Wildflower (Billie Eilish)

2. Disease (Lady Gaga)

3. Messy (Lola Young)

4. Sports Car (Tate McRae)

5. That’s So True (Gracy Abrams)

Wildflower and Messy were technically released prior to September 2024 so I don’t think they’d be eligible. 

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