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AOTY: Mayhem and its realistic chances


andy232000
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James Gibson
2 hours ago, Anderson123 said:

They've added Kanye's Donda and Taylor's Evermore to Album of the Year just for ratings when those 2 albums didn't have enough votes to be there so there's some manipulation. Not sure about ASIB, I think it just went by voters' head and didn't make it for real but it was a surprise.

Those were different years. In Donda's year there was no committee so they just added the 9th and 10th most voted to the lineup in addition to the top 8.

In ASIB's year the panel could change the nominees entirely based on the pool of 15 most voted. I highly doubt ASIB didn't make top 15 when ARUTW got SOTY. It felt like a conscious decision to leave veterans like Gaga (and Taylor with Lover who also got a SOTY nod) out of AOTY to leave room for newer artists like Billie, Lizzo, Lil Nas X who got more proeminence that ceremony.

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James Gibson
1 hour ago, andy232000 said:

This year is shaping up to be incredibly weak in Pop fields. If they can replicate a similar LFS Campaign we should be golden. Its almost impossible that no Pop records are nominated for aoty, and even with Miley Cyruses and Ed Sheeran imminent releases, out of sheer name Gaga is still pulling up ahead in Pop, 

I agree, the only major artist I can see now being a threat to Gaga in Pop Album specifically is Harry. Unless there's a breakthrough artist this year like Sabrina.

In AOTY however truly think Kendrick has the upper hand with his amount of hype, success and acclaim specially post halftime show. But Gaga should have no problem being nomd atm.

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Tony31511

She will win something next year. It may not be AOTY but she has a strong chance of winning in other categories. I think all the huge performances in the next few months will be her way of campaigning the album and getting the attention of Grammy voters.

But if there continues to not be any major pop competition this year, she will definitely sweep at the 2026 Grammys. It will finally be her time to shine.

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tlittlemonster
15 minutes ago, Tony31511 said:

She will win something next year. It may not be AOTY but she has a strong chance of winning in other categories. I think all the huge performances in the next few months will be her way of campaigning the album and getting the attention of Grammy voters.

But if there continues to not be any major pop competition this year, she will definitely sweep at the 2026 Grammys. It will finally be her time to shine.

I think so far the strongest competition pop wise is Harry Styles

Hoping his new album flops 👀

When is the official Grammy's cut off date?

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andy232000
1 minute ago, tlittlemonster said:

I think so far the strongest competition pop wise is Harry Styles

Hoping his new album flops 👀

When is the official Grammy's cut off date?

August 30, 2024. Little over 5 months to go…

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  • 2 weeks later...
andy232000

Golderby published their initial early AOTY predictions for both nominations and win

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/grammy-nominations-2026-predictions/

Exactly like I predicted: GNX front runner, Mayhem Runner up. 10 month to go for voting process to finalize.

Already at #2, Gaga has enough time to pull off this aoty win if she plays the cards right with the Era. 

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gagzus

It still annoys me that if it wasn’t for Slant we could’ve had Mayhem be nearly 90 on Metacritic and it’d be a shoe-in for AOTY. The fact that PITCHFORK gave it a higher score than Kendrick too bodes well to me.

Edited by gagzus
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Nagini

All she needs is one smash to seriously put her on the map. Hope Kendrick's album/singles fizzle by the time December comes around with Gaga picking up momentum. Luther may continue to stick around with TV Off being another cute hit for him, though I can't stand that awful Not Like Us song. She deserves this so much, way more than Kendrick's overpraised and overrated work. 

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Nagini

I hope the entire pop wing and production body carries her through the finish line, but the Grammys did add a ton more POC/hip-hop voters as of last year... so maybe some of this cancels out. 

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andy232000
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Nagini said:

I hope the entire pop wing and production body carries her through the finish line, but the Grammys did add a ton more POC/hip-hop voters as of last year... so maybe some of this cancels out. 

While POC have incremented, that doesn't necessarily mean that they will vote hip hop. I also think they’ve made efforts to increase DEI voters. Queer POC could still vote Gaga. But I agree that even if Pop is still the larger voter pool, they made a big change last year. 
 

Gaga really needs to keep this era alive all the way through December to make sure she can get the pop voters to rally behind her and campaign to get as much people from other voting pulls to cancel out Kendrick. Really hoping she pulls its. 

Edited by andy232000
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