AOTY: Mayhem and its realistic chances

[andy232000 10,807]

I’ve been following the Grammy voting process for several years now, and I have been able to predict the nominees and winners almost down to 100% for the past two years. So, I decided to take a look at our current landscape for next years Grammy’s and Mayhems chances in the biggest award: ALBUM OF THE YEAR:

To put it briefly: Mayhem is Gaga's album with the strongest chance of winning AOTY

 

This is the current state in my opinion: 

- Front runner: GNX Kendrick Lamar

- Runner Up: Mayhem Lady Gaga 

 

While I believe Kendrick Lamar is the frontrunner, his album was released very early in the eligibility period. Since then, at least three major hip-hop artists—Drake, Tyler The Creator, and Playboi Carti—have dropped albums.

If even one or two of them get nominated, the hip-hop vote will start to split among several contenders. This kind of vote-splitting already happened at this year’s Grammys, where 50% of the AOTY nominees came from pop: Billie Eilish, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, and Charli XCX. As a result, Beyoncé had better odds of winning. The same could happen this time, but with hip-hop instead.

That said, even if hip-hop voters consolidate behind Kendrick, history has shown that pop (or other genres) can still win over rap-heavy competition—especially against Kendrick himself. In 2016, “To Pimp a Butterfly” lost AOTY to Taylor Swift’s “1989”, despite being a critical favorite, and that was in a field of only five nominees (meaning the hip-hop votes were consolidated on Kendrick). Then, in 2018, “DAMN”, Jay-Z’s “4:44”, and Cardi B’s “Invasion of Privacy” were all nominated, yet Kacey Musgraves “Golden Hour” took home the award. That year proved that a three-way hip-hop split can significantly weaken rap’s chances of winning.

Even though there are still five months left in the eligibility period, it’s safe to expect at least one more hip-hop album to make it into the AOTY race alongside Kendrick. If it ends up being Drake’s album, his ongoing feud with Kendrick could further divide the rap vote, making it even harder for a hip-hop album to secure a win.

Also, an interesting dynamic to consider is that Kendrick already won big this year with his song “Not Like Us” from his competing album “GNX”. Grammy voters might feel they’ve already awarded him enough for this body of work, which could impact his chances in the AOTY race. Gaga could suffer from a similar situation, as “Die With A Smile” already won a Grammy, but this would be to a lesser extent as “DWAS” did not win any general field grammy. This phenomenon could push voters to look elsewhere for their AOTY pick.

On the other hand, there aren’t many strong pop albums in contention. The Weeknd might take some votes in the pop category, but historically, Grammy voters tend to consider him in R&B as well, which weakens his standing in the pop race. Plus, SZA is a strong competitor in R&B, further dividing that vote, and she qualifies with “SOS Deluxe LANA”.

The only real threats to Gaga from the pop side are potential late releases, but even most of them will have to put up a fight against “Mayhem”.

Chappell Roan has already confirmed that her album is still a long way off, so she’s out of the equation for now. Tate McRae will likely appear in the pop categories, but her album isn’t strong enough to break into the AOTY race. Lizzo is reportedly working on an album, but given the underwhelming performance of her last two singles, it’s unlikely to make a major impact. 

The artists who could shake things up are Harry Styles—IF he releases, his Grammy track record, commercial dominance, and industry support could make him a serious contender. Another potential spoiler for Gaga is Ed Sheeran, who has commented on his upcoming album “Play”. Depending on its release timing, it could be a serious contender too. 

Meanwhile, Gaga has the advantage of high-profile performances at Coachella, Copacabana, and several major global shows in May—closer to the end of the eligibility period (She should still campaign in late November regardless though). That recency bias will work in her favor.

Bad Bunny will almost certainly get a nomination, but the Grammys aren’t giving the top award to a Latin artist. If he didn’t win with “Un Verano Sin Ti”, it’s unlikely he will now.

What could give “Mayhem” an even stronger edge is that producers are already praising the album’s production quality. This could position it as a frontrunner for Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical, a category that often serves as a precursor to AOTY.

In the sane vein, in terms of critical reception, “Mayhem” is firmly in the high tier among potential nominees. It’s just three points shy of Kendrick's album (87) and one point shy of Tyler’s Chromakopia (85), with an impressive 11-point lead over The Weeknd (73). Bad Bunny's album holds the highest score at 95, but it has only a quarter of the reviews compared to the rest of albums mentioned, which could indicate there’s not a lot of critics checking Bad Bunny’s album out.

Ultimately, If no other massive pop artist emerges by late August who is able to challenge Gaga, then pop voters—the largest voting block—would likely rally behind Gaga. And if the hip-hop vote gets split… Mayhem for AOTY is not impossible. 

On another note, Gaga also has a real shot in several other categories, either because she is a strong contender, or because no major competition has appeared six and a half months into the eligibility period:

Best Pop Dance Recording for "Abracadabra"

Best Pop Solo Performance for "Disease" or "Happy Mistakes"

Best Pop Vocal Album for Mayhem

Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album for Harlequin

Unfortunately, Best Music Video for Abracadabra seems unlikely as of now. Usually this category looks for a big production or video with a political/social commentary. Although Gaga did previously won with Bad Romance, a similar dance hefty video.

While other potential contenders could appear, these categories seem open for Gaga, especially considering the lack of strong competition so far.

[GAGA IS GROOVY 256]

Interesting insight, thank you!

[anonnona 281]

Thanks for the insight! I also just posted on another forum that I honestly think the following nominations are possible: 

- Best Pop Vocal Album (MAYHEM)

- Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album (Harlequin)

- Best Dance Pop Recording (Abracadabra)

- Record Of The Year (Abracadabra)

- Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical (MAYHEM)

- AOTY (MAYHEM)

- Best Music Video (Abracadabra)

- Best Pop Solo Performance (Disease? Happy Mistake?)

- Best Pop Duo/ Group Performance (Killah?)

 

And I think she has a good chance at a win for the first 3 categories tbh

[Anderson123 37,463]

29 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

Then, in 2018, “DAMN”, Jay-Z’s “4:44”, and Cardi B’s “Invasion of Privacy” were all nominated, yet Kacey Musgraves “Golden Hour” took home the award. That year proved that a three-way hip-hop split can significantly weaken rap’s chances of winning.

 

Just wanted to clarify that 2018 winner was Bruno’s 24k Magic over Kendrick’s Damn, Jay Z, Childish Gambino and my winner Melodrama by Lorde. Next year was Kacey’s when they expanded the number to like 8-10. 

Very interesting analysis! we have yet to see many more albums this year but Mayhem truly deserves it. 
 

[Gagaism 10,983]

Well, in between both Kendrick and Gaga he’s gonna take the shot for AOTY for sure, it’s not even a question. Unless something happens out of nowhere and Mayhem gets on another level of more success and cultural impact in a long run up to submissions deadline. 
 

on the other hand she’s got some other possibilities for dance, EDM and pop fields for sure. I’d say she could easily get at least 3 wins for Mayhem tbh. 

[Gagaism 10,983]

6 minutes ago, anonnona said:

Thanks for the insight! I also just posted on another forum that I honestly think the following nominations are possible: 

- Best Pop Vocal Album (MAYHEM)

- Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album (Harlequin)

- Best Dance Pop Recording (Abracadabra)

- Record Of The Year (Abracadabra)

- Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical (MAYHEM)

- AOTY (MAYHEM)

- Best Music Video (Abracadabra)

- Best Pop Solo Performance (Disease? Happy Mistake?)

- Best Pop Duo/ Group Performance (Killah?)

 

And I think she has a good chance at a win for the first 3 categories tbh

Talking about Killah, would be a song with a non singer feature eligible for Duo Group nominations?

I personally don’t think Harlequin would get noms I could be wrong tho.

[anonnona 281]

7 minutes ago, Gagaism said:

Talking about Killah, would be a song with a non singer feature eligible for Duo Group nominations?

I personally don’t think Harlequin would get noms I could be wrong tho.

Yup! I think Uptown Funk and Get Lucky both were nominated/ won in this category too. Though tbh the frontrunner for this category is likely APT at this point in time

Edited March 16 by anonnona

[River 111,985]

when the grammy's are not influenced or threatened by someone, there can be some surprises, like when Joanne Piano won, so honestly, anything can happen.

[AVeryGagaHolyDick 23,286]

The way Abracadabra is 100% winning Best Pop Dance Recording 

[gumzy3000 7,118]

I feel like it’s too early to predict anything for the Grammys next year. It’s only March and there will for sure be many releases and surprises coming from various artists soon.

[Killa 16,963]

Mayhem has no chance of getting aoty. Sorry...

But your analysis Is interesting. 

[thetorturedlovers 57]

Mayhem won’t be a serious AOTY contender. There’s no way she’s winning AOTY. I don’t even see her as a serious contender if I’m being honest. She’s not even a lock for an AOTY nomination, she could get the Eternal Sunshine treatment if Mayhem collapses a few months after its release like Chromatica. She needs longevity if she wants to get an AOTY nomination. I’m kinda worried about that, I don’t see her staying relevan throughout the whole year and that will hurt her chances.

[LilyLark 10,059]

8 minutes ago, thetorturedlovers said:

Mayhem won’t be a serious AOTY contender. There’s no way she’s winning AOTY. I don’t even see her as a serious contender if I’m being honest. She’s not even a lock for an AOTY nomination, she could get the Eternal Sunshine treatment if Mayhem collapses a few months after its release like Chromatica. She needs longevity if she wants to get an AOTY nomination. I’m kinda worried about that, I don’t see her staying relevan throughout the whole year and that will hurt her chances.

Huh?  I don't think she'll win either-it'll be Kendrick-but she definitely has a very good chance at a nom.

It's at 84 on Metacritic and it had a strong opening week. Little monsters compare everything to Gaga's past success, but Mayhem opened around the same as Eternal Sunshine and 50-60k more than Tate (who for all the jokes, it genuinely successful and considered a major player in the new generation). The Grammys don't mess with Ariana for some reason, but Gaga is well liked by the voting committee when you look at her past history.

There's also simply very little competition. Billie, Olivia, Sabrina, etc. aren't releasing this year. Beyonce "may" release part III, but it seems unlikely as she'll be doing the Cowboy Carter tour. Playboi Carti's album isn't getting good reviews last I heard. SZA isn't dropping either.

There are eight slots. One will go to Kendrick, 2-3 are bound to go to country/hip-hop/etc., one will likely go to Chappell's new album, one to Lana (if she drops), and one will go to Gaga imo.

[LilyLark 10,059]

She definitely has a shot due to the Metacritic score and the solid opening week, but Kendrick is absolutely winning imo.

I believe she has pop vocal more or less on lock and Killah could definitely win Dance.

[thetorturedlovers 57]

2 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

She definitely has a shot due to the Metacritic score and the solid opening week, but Kendrick is absolutely winning imo.

I believe she has pop vocal more or less on lock and Killah could definitely win Dance.

No, Mayhem doesn’t stand a chance of winning, there’s no way they would give their most prestigious award to an album like Mayhem. There is nothing AOTY worthy about Mayhem. It’s a solid Gaga pop album that has some interesting moments but it’s not memorable enough to be considered as a serious AOTY contender.