US Election Voting Tracker

[sarahb 17,185]

8 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

Honestly I can’t stand that idiot and don’t need her to go on there. 

Unfortunately lots of people listen to that idiot and their votes count 

Never a bad idea to try to win over the young male group

[Bronco 24,765]

3 hours ago, LateToCult said:

Kamala is heading to Houston for a rally on Friday. The first time in 30 years that a Democrat candidate heads to Texas with only a couple weeks left until Election Day. @Morphine Prince

Is this a bid to boost Allred? Is this a bid to boost herself? WHAT DO THE INTERNALS SHOW? 

The internals show Allred is in firing distance of Cruz.

Harris wasn't really close to Trump based on the leaked Gop internals recently.

My best guess is the Dems are trying to play off the GOP leak. Boost Allred & force the GOP into diverting funds to Texas over another battleground. 

The GOP may panic switch funds purely because of the psychology of Texas flipping at Senate or Presidential level. Flipping once makes it way easier to repeat it in future cycles because voters are more receptive to the idea its possible

[PhantomOfTheDance 13,795]

dude i honestly feel my heart skip a beat at the idea of us having our first female president. i seriously hope it happens

[Max 22,002]

What are the swing states this time or which ones are the important ones to win? (And do they even change I have no clue) 

[PartySick 172,392]

1 hour ago, Max said:

What are the swing states this time or which ones are the important ones to win? (And do they even change I have no clue) 

They do change but with increasing polarization we're looking at the same states more often now. Those are:

Michigan

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

Nebraska's 2nd district

Arizona

Nevada

Georgia

North Carolina

If Kamala wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd then she wins the election. She's got Nebraska's 2nd on lock pretty much and she's leading in both the polls and voting in the three states, usually grouped together as "the Rust Belt" or "Blue Wall" states.

She's likely winning Nevada as well but it'll be tighter than usual it seems.

I'm still confident she'll eek out a victory in Arizona too. A Democrat is winning their senate race and there's an abortion referendum on the ballot. Republican voters lead Democrats so far but anywhere from 5% to 10% of Republicans are defecting to Kamala and due to Trump's strategy this time, these early votes could just be a sign of him cannibalizing his election day votes. In other words, Republican votes may be front loaded more now than they were in 2020 or 2022.

Things are looking ok in North Carolina but I'll be surprised if Kamala takes that one.

Georgia may be a lost cause but we won't know until it's over.

Classically, Republicans used to do better with early voting and Democrats did better on election day. That swapped in 2020 and now we have this weird amalgamation of the two. Nobody really knows what to expect as far as turnout but so far it's looking pretty good for Kamala

[PartySick 172,392]

Did y'all see this?

https://newrepublic.com/post/187389/donald-trump-elon-musk-plan-ground-game

Musk is gonna cost Trump bigly

[RAMROD 116,996]

19 hours ago, Morphine Prince said:

NBC News has an Early Voting Tracker where you can look at demographics for every state and follow along how many votes are cast: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

Note: Data might not completely up to date as data keeps coming in frequently. 

 

If anyone finds better sources for this data please feel free to share!

 

Kim Jong Don just finds new person to blame his failures on 

This is the original article where the video is at 

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/22/trump-ground-game-door-knock-hack-gps

[PartySick 172,392]

Just voted

Straight blue, yes on the weed and abortion referendums

Flipped off a Trump sign as we were leaving and a dude in a jacked up F150 truck saw me doing it, leaned out the window, and yelled "HELL YEAH BROTHER"

Then my grandma and I were walking by a Trump table on the way back to the car and she looked at their cutout of Trump standing there and said, far too loud, "wish I had a bb gun right now" MA'AM

[Ladle Ghoulash 52,469]

So I just saw this from the NYT and thought it was interesting:

So basically, if the polls are currently undercounting Dems like they did in 2022, Harris would be on track to win 303 EV and comfortably win the election.

But ofc, not of that happens w/o y’all mf’ers in the swing states showing up and voting!! Let’s do it bby 

[PartySick 172,392]

2 minutes ago, Ladle Ghoulash said:

So I just saw this from the NYT and thought it was interesting:

So basically, if the polls are currently undercounting Dems like they did in 2022, Harris would be on track to win 303 EV and comfortably win the election.

But ofc, not of that happens w/o y’all mf’ers in the swing states showing up and voting!! Let’s do it bby 

FiveThirtyEight...

I think we're more likely to see a 2022 styled error tbh. Lots and lots of new voters for Kamala

[PartySick 172,392]

My feeling right now is there are two possibilities:

1) Polling is accurate and Kamala's gonna win

2) Polling is wrong and Kamala's gonna win by a larger margin than expected

[MOT 3,605]

This is a good thread. Trying to read the tea leaves is difficult, with Trump encouraging his guys to vote early and covid not being a player this time, and God knows how many other wrinkles playing out at local levels ... and I'm not even American, so I've no chance whatsoever of working it out.

One thing I will say though. The betting markets have been moving slowly and relentlessly in Trump's favour for about three weeks now. I think that's a reflection of the fact that Harris is going to have to win two contests, i.e. she's going to have to win the electoral college, and then she's going to have to resist Trump's attempt to steal it (and my understanding is that he would have a realistic chance of doing that, without a shot being fired). Trump, on the other hand, only has to win either one of those contests.

[Morphine Prince 109,645]

16 minutes ago, Ladle Ghoulash said:

So I just saw this from the NYT and thought it was interesting:

So basically, if the polls are currently undercounting Dems like they did in 2022, Harris would be on track to win 303 EV and comfortably win the election.

But ofc, not of that happens w/o y’all mf’ers in the swing states showing up and voting!! Let’s do it bby 

2022 was a midterm but I think methodology changed form 16 and 20 so hmmmm…. 

[PartySick 172,392]

Democratic voters are catching up to Republicans in Arizona pretty quickly

Georgia's getting closer too but at a slower rate

Florida....got worse  but! Democrats always voted on election day here. Covid was an outlier. I won't give up on my sh*tty little state until then

[Bronco 24,765]

1 hour ago, PartySick said:

Things are looking ok in North Carolina but I'll be surprised if Kamala takes that one.

Georgia may be a lost cause but we won't know until it's over.

Based on what we're seeing so far my gut says North Carolina's going to be this cycle's Georgia (where it literally goes down to the final ballot box near enough) & that Georgia may flip back to Red. 
I feel like the Hurricane may have pushed some much needed swing voters over the blue line in NC.