sarahb 17,188 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 Nevada update https://xcancel.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1851840119742840945#m Daily Early in-person - Clark County, NV 10/30/2024 (SOS) Dem 10,252 (30.9%) Rep 12,289 (37.1%) +2,037 Other 10,546 (31.9%) Total 33,087 Reps get another 2k on the margin. Dems and Others gain and Reps drop on Wednesday early in-person. Down to R+6 for the day. Reps now majorly underperforming the same day in 2022. Dems now hitting their 2022 line and the Others are way up. Reps now 2.3% behind their cumulative same-day 2022 EIP percentage. Dems are 3.5% behind their 2022 percentage. Dems have two more days to make those two equal to tie their 2022 performance in EIP in Clark County Reps dropped 0.9% in the cumulative graph just from today's numbers. Dems increased 0.2% today (total 1.1% shift to Dems). So, if a similar day happens on Thursday, Dems could tie it. Friday would be an opportunity for Dems to outperform 2022 EIP. Halloween tends to be a low turnout day, so it would be tough to get that done on Halloween (Thursday). Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahb 17,188 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 ^ TL;DR - R's are underperforming and D's have a chance to catch up. Others is overperforming. Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahb 17,188 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 Btw Trump has cancelled his only announced Pennsylvania event, a Penn State vs. Ohio State game. Nothing else is currently planned for that state. If he's really tied there with Harris it's an odd choice His path to victory is difficult without it. Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctherainbow 3,162 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 Well this is certainly a great time for me to come back to GGD over half a decade later! So, in the time I've been away, I've trained to be a political data analyst, and elections analysis is now my day job! I did not go through every page to check, but just in case nobody's posted it, here is a good Early Vote tracker from the University of Florida's Elections Lab: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/ The race is tight, but there's a lot of really good signs in the Early Vote: Georgia is one of the few states that reports gender breakdowns of its early voters, and women are out-voting men by more than 10% in Georgia so far, which is a fantastic sign for Dems. Here in my home state of Pennsylvania, Republicans have been ramping up efforts to get their voters to vote early, so I'm not super worried about the smaller Early Vote gap here than there was in 2020. I have many gripes with the PA Dems, but so far this cycle they have been organizing quite well; for instance, last weekend, in just two days, they knocked on half a million voter doors. Honestly the only swing state I'm particularly worried about is Nevada, as the blue areas in and around Vegas have been building far less of an Early Vote firewall than they usually do, but it only has 6 electoral college votes, so Harris has many paths to victory without it. I do believe that Dems will lose the Senate, probably 51R-49D or 52R-48D, BUT if Colin Allred pulls through in Texas, we might keep it 50D-50R with Walz as the tiebreaker, so Pretty sure we flip the House; there are far too many Republican House members in Biden-won seats for them to defend all of them successfully, and we're not on defense in that many districts, plus we're picking up one nearly guaranteed flip each in Louisiana and Mississippi after unconstitutional racially gerrymandered districts were redrawn. Anyway, yes hello, I am back, and these are my thoughts on the Early Vote. And re: the election anxiety a lot of folks are expressing, stressing won't change the outcome of the election, but action will. Not saying that I might be able to offer connections to voter outreach opportunities in my DMS, but I'm also not NOT saying that. I'm talkin' 'bout forever, baby. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastNight 5,943 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 I have nothing to add, just wanted to say that as a Brit the GGD thread during the last US election was genuinely one of the most useful resources I came across for keeping up to date, so thank you to everyone who contributes! Its really helpful for those of us looking in from the outside and it’s much appreciated Hope it all goes well next week and everyone is safe and well during this time! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahb 17,188 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFXSoul91 1,100 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 8 minutes ago, sarahb said: He clearly thinks he’s going to lose. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lastpopicon 37,264 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 9 minutes ago, sarahb said: the way he talks in caps lock all the time louder is always better for people like him, especially when it's all nonsense The melody that you choose can rescue you Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarstruckIllusion 53,566 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 21 minutes ago, sarahb said: ugh facist trash. thank god it’s probably his last election Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOT 3,608 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 59 minutes ago, FFXSoul91 said: He clearly thinks he’s going to lose. He's adopting a twin track approach. If he wins he wins. If he loses he's laid the groundwork to cry fraud and blah, Mike Johnson blah, Supreme Court blah. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 172,545 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 Trump's campaign is sending him to Virginia and New Mexico 'cause every time he's in a swing state he says something stupid and loses more support Also, polls are showing a rebound for Tester and Allred is still looking pretty good. Nebraska's race continues to be extremely tight as well. Republicans are really facing a losing bid for the House, a precarious fight for a 1-seat majority in the senate, and a flailing senile Hitler-type candidate for president. We Democrats have an opportunity to really pull it out this week and next week and Idk...I'm optimistic that not only will Kamala win, she'll have a trifecta... Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LateToCult 41,861 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 Detroit City clerk is expecting a higher turnout in the city than in 2020. Also, convinced Joe Spiteful Biden is trying to spoil this for Kamala. She was right to clock his tea back in the primaries all those years ago. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 172,545 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, LateToCult said: Detroit City clerk is expecting a higher turnout in the city than in 2020. The numbers are actually looking pretty good for us Heard it in a podcast this morning that Republicans are bragging about their registration game but something like 90% of the Republicans who've voted so far are people who voted in 2020. So they registered "all those voters" between 2020 and now just for them to potentially not show up Definitely double check that stat before repeating it but still, I think that's hilarious. They didn't give a percentage but apparently waves of new Democrats and unaffiliated voters have been voting at pretty good rates All this is an early signal that Trump really is just cannibalizing his election day vote Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahb 17,188 Posted October 31, 2024 Share Posted October 31, 2024 Georgia becomes the first swing state in 2024 to surpass the number of votes cast at this point in 2020 https://xcancel.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1852023188613456182 Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morphine Prince 109,683 Posted October 31, 2024 Author Share Posted October 31, 2024 So interestingly, AtlasIntel which was the most accurate pollster in 2020 has Trump up in most swing states. We’ll see if that actually holds up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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