US Election Voting Tracker

[PartySick 172,545]

Oh, and keep in mind the NYT underestimated Obama in 2012 by 4%, Hillary in 2016 by 2%, and Trump in 2020 by 11%

I don't trust their numbers 👏 

I like their article about the "red wave" though

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

"The virtual “bazaar of polls,” as a top Republican strategist called it, was largely kept humming by right-leaning pollsters using opaque methodology, in some cases relying on financial support from hyperpartisan groups and benefiting from vociferous cheerleading by Mr. Trump."

Or in other words, EXACTLY WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW.

80+ GOP skewed pollsters, most with ridiculous and unreliable methodology, pouring over 100 skewed polls into the averages while legitimate pollsters cook their numbers in an effort to over correct for errors they made in 2016 and 2020.

Polling ain't sh*t and will never be sh*t to me again

[LateToCult 41,861]

1 minute ago, PartySick said:

Oh, and keep in mind the NYT underestimated Obama in 2012 by 4%, Hillary in 2016 by 2%, and Trump in 2020 by 11%

I don't trust their numbers 👏 

I like their article about the "red wave" though

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

"The virtual “bazaar of polls,” as a top Republican strategist called it, was largely kept humming by right-leaning pollsters using opaque methodology, in some cases relying on financial support from hyperpartisan groups and benefiting from vociferous cheerleading by Mr. Trump."

Or in other words, EXACTLY WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW.

80+ GOP skewed pollsters, most with ridiculous and unreliable methodology, pouring over 100 skewed polls into the averages while legitimate pollsters cook their numbers in an effort to over correct for errors they made in 2016 and 2020.

Polling ain't sh*t and will never be sh*t to me again

Polling that isn’t internal this late in the game should always be ignored tbh. It’s just noise. One thing I did just see that kind of quelled my nerves for the night is that NV Republican gains in EV FINALLY slowed down just a bit. Hopefully this means they really are gonna hit a ceiling with rural voters because my god, they built up an impressive firewall.

[DopeEnigma 1,782]

1 hour ago, LateToCult said:

But we’re seeing counties that were heavily Democratic lose their share of the early vote by 5+% compared with 2020 and 2022. Republicans have also been steadily holding their numbers in the PA early drops. 
 

I don’t like that we’re putting so much weight on Election Day turnout and this fantasy that Republicans are gonna turn out for Harris. The idea just doesn’t make sense to me. And I don’t even want to get started on how many people believe Harris can easily bag a 5, 6, even 10 point winning margin with Indy voters in Nevada to dig herself out of the hole Dems are currently in there. It’s really feeling like 2016 where there were signs but Dems were too cocky to read them.  

Early voting and looking at it as indicating the result is meaningless. 

[LateToCult 41,861]

9 minutes ago, DopeEnigma said:

Early voting and looking at it as indicating the result is meaningless. 

Highly disagree. It’s real data.

[DopeEnigma 1,782]

43 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

Highly disagree. It’s real data.

It’s meaningless, doesn’t account for the entirety of in person voting on the day. It’s pure guessing and worrying for no reason. 

[LateToCult 41,861]

1 minute ago, DopeEnigma said:

It’s meaningless, doesn’t account for the entirety of in person voting on the day. It’s pure guessing and worrying for no reason. 

I disagree. Once this election is over, we’re not gonna look back and say, “wow the early voting was so random and didn’t tell us anything about the outcome.” It’s gonna tell a story. It could be, “wow Trump convinced republicans to mobilize early and it canabilized his base.” It could also be, “wow from the jump there were signs that Democrats couldn’t convince their base to turn out.” Just because it’s not finished, doesn’t mean we can’t start reading it. 

[Guest]

My prediction: She's winning Michigan, Georgia and NC. 

PA, WI too close to call. But both go to Harris later.

Trump's winning AZ and NV. 

Dems win the Senate race in Texas and in Nebraska (even though the candidate is independent) and can hold their tie-breaking vote majority. 

Dems win back the House.

Source: gut feeling. 

[DopeEnigma 1,782]

6 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

I disagree. Once this election is over, we’re not gonna look back and say, “wow the early voting was so random and didn’t tell us anything about the outcome.” It’s gonna tell a story. It could be, “wow Trump convinced republicans to mobilize early and it canabilized his base.” It could also be, “wow from the jump there were signs that Democrats couldn’t convince their base to turn out.” Just because it’s not finished, doesn’t mean we can’t start reading it. 

The whole story when everyone has voted will be far more informative, it’s getting a bit tiring seeing everyone lose their mind way beforehand. Let’s just make sure we tell everyone we know to get out and vote and then we can breakdown the patterns and what it means when the final results are declared. 

[LateToCult 41,861]

3 minutes ago, DopeEnigma said:

The whole story when everyone has voted will be far more informative, it’s getting a bit tiring seeing everyone lose their mind way beforehand. Let’s just make sure we tell everyone we know to get out and vote and then we can breakdown the patterns and what it means when the final results are declared. 

Well, you’re in the early voting thread, so I bet a little part of you wants to see how things are going and doesn’t want to wait until Election Day. 

[GagaTheExplorer 3,053]

Why you guys so worried when all of the US presidents act the same once they arrive to the white house

[DopeEnigma 1,782]

1 hour ago, LateToCult said:

Well, you’re in the early voting thread, so I bet a little part of you wants to see how things are going and doesn’t want to wait until Election Day. 

I’m more so intrigued people want to get worried and worked up with several days to go. 

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

1 hour ago, GagaTheExplorer said:

Why you guys so worried when all of the US presidents act the same once they arrive to the white house

This is absolutely not true. 

Tell that to the 6M people who got student loans forgiven by the Biden administration, the people who can now afford insulin capped at $35 a month, the people (including in my family) who saw significant reduction in their pharmaceutical costs due to the Biden administration’s rules on price negotiation, the people who got guaranteed overtime protections, the banks who now need to reduce junk fees.. and so much more. 

Trump would have done NONE of this.

Tired of the ignorant takes from people who are incapable of seeing a night and day difference. 

 

[DopeEnigma 1,782]

10 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

This is absolutely not true. 

Tell that to the 6M people who got student loans forgiven by the Biden administration, the people who can now afford insulin capped at $35 a month, the people (including in my family) who saw significant reduction in their pharmaceutical costs due to the Biden administration’s rules on price negotiation, the people who got guaranteed overtime protections, the banks who now need to reduce junk fees.. and so much more. 

Trump would have done NONE of this.

Tired of the ignorant takes from people who are incapable of seeing a night and day difference. 

 

You’re absolutely right about this, Biden has actually had some great achievements in office and I find it pretty shocking how they have been disregarded.

[sarahb 17,188]

Georgia is now ahead of its 2020 voting pace

[Bronco 25,131]

6 hours ago, LateToCult said:

Polling that isn’t internal this late in the game should always be ignored tbh. It’s just noise. One thing I did just see that kind of quelled my nerves for the night is that NV Republican gains in EV FINALLY slowed down just a bit. Hopefully this means they really are gonna hit a ceiling with rural voters because my god, they built up an impressive firewall.

Yeah now we're over the first week of EV, we can see what motivation actually exists by how the numbers change. 

I fully expect GOP to keep dropping & Dems to remain slow but steady.