US Election Voting Tracker

[PartySick 172,545]

1 minute ago, Morphine Prince said:

Honestly don’t know how I’m supposed to sleep and go to work the next day. 

Manifesting a Kamala win by the time the polls close on the west coast

[PartySick 172,545]

I have election day and the day after off work

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

The Nevada numbers are extremely worrying so far. 

[sarahb 17,188]

11 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

The Nevada numbers are extremely worrying so far. 

Nevada is weird

https://nitter.poast.org/SwannMarcus89/status/1849581193005568501?t=UKV5dimnuuEPRIHs8MbRJg&s=19

TL;DR: They're probably gonna run out of old republicans to vote by election day

[River 127,526]

are we flopping?

[LateToCult 41,861]

Ugh. My gut is telling me this is gonna be an election with low Dem turn out. “Democrats are gonna show up on Election Day” is just sounding like copeium. Early voting on the west coast is abysmal. Nevada hinges on high Election Day turnout + massive Indy margins. Florida is completely lost. Pennsylvania has gained about the same amount of registered republicans as the Democrats lost in the last few years. There’s just more pointing to a higher Republican showing. 

[PartySick 172,545]

1 minute ago, LateToCult said:

Pennsylvania has gained about the same amount of registered republicans as the Democrats lost in the last few years. There’s just more pointing to a higher Republican showing. 

Not sure if this is really indicative of anything since Pennsylvania implemented automatic voter registration in 2023

People don't need to go out of their way to register to vote there so any gains for either side don't necessarily translate to enthusiasm imo

[PartySick 172,545]

9 minutes ago, River said:

are we flopping?

Nah, Dems are just panicking like they do every October in an election year

[River 127,526]

1 minute ago, PartySick said:

Nah, Dems are just panicking like they do every October in an election year

so like LM after 24 hours of a single release. got it

[PartySick 172,545]

Just now, River said:

so like LM after 24 hours of a single release. got it

Exactly

 

[LateToCult 41,861]

14 minutes ago, PartySick said:

Not sure if this is really indicative of anything since Pennsylvania implemented automatic voter registration in 2023

People don't need to go out of their way to register to vote there so any gains for either side don't necessarily translate to enthusiasm imo

But we’re seeing counties that were heavily Democratic lose their share of the early vote by 5+% compared with 2020 and 2022. Republicans have also been steadily holding their numbers in the PA early drops. 
 

I don’t like that we’re putting so much weight on Election Day turnout and this fantasy that Republicans are gonna turn out for Harris. The idea just doesn’t make sense to me. And I don’t even want to get started on how many people believe Harris can easily bag a 5, 6, even 10 point winning margin with Indy voters in Nevada to dig herself out of the hole Dems are currently in there. It’s really feeling like 2016 where there were signs but Dems were too cocky to read them.  

[PartySick 172,545]

1 minute ago, LateToCult said:

But we’re seeing counties that were heavily Democratic lose their share of the early vote by 5+% compared with 2020 and 2022. Republicans have also been steadily holding their numbers in the PA early drops. 
 

I don’t like that we’re putting so much weight on Election Day turnout and this fantasy that Republicans are gonna turn out for Harris. The idea just doesn’t make sense to me. And I don’t even want to get started on how many people believe Harris can easily bag a 5, 6, even 10 point winning margin with Indy voters in Nevada to dig herself out of the hole Dems are currently in there. It’s really feeling like 2016 where there were signs but Dems were too cocky to read them.  

I don't think there's a single complacent Dem anywhere in this country  

I'm not ready to panic yet tbh. 

You can't compare this election to 2020 and I'd argue 2022 as well. The electorate is increasingly volatile, impossible to poll or predict, some voters are falling back into pre-covid voting patterns and others are keeping their new ones.

It's far too early to consider lower early vote rates for Dems to be erosion of support in the same way it's too early to call higher GOP turnout enthusiasm.

We just have to wait and see

I'm just not convinced things are going Trump's way tbh.

[LateToCult 41,861]

1 minute ago, PartySick said:

I don't think there's a single complacent Dem anywhere in this country  

I'm not ready to panic yet tbh. 

You can't compare this election to 2020 and I'd argue 2022 as well. The electorate is increasingly volatile, impossible to poll or predict, some voters are falling back into pre-covid voting patterns and others are keeping their new ones.

It's far too early to consider lower early vote rates for Dems to be erosion of support in the same way it's too early to call higher GOP turnout enthusiasm.

We just have to wait and see

I'm just not convinced things are going Trump's way tbh.

I think fear is healthy for the Dems. They’re more likely to win when they’re scared. 
 

They got cocky with Gore and lost. They got scared with Obama vs Romney and won. They got cocky with Hillary and lost. They got scared with Biden and won. 
 

I want more fear. 

[PartySick 172,545]

20 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

I think fear is healthy for the Dems. They’re more likely to win when they’re scared. 
 

They got cocky with Gore and lost. They got scared with Obama vs Romney and won. They got cocky with Hillary and lost. They got scared with Biden and won. 
 

I want more fear. 

Well Gore won in 2000, I'll accept no notes  

But yeah, Dems are squirming which means they're voting

I FINALLY looked at the latest NYT poll and while I disregard their final number (they literally said it's part of their methodology to skew the results to compensate for non-colleged educated voters aka Trump's base) I did find one bit interesting

"The poll found that the 9 percent of Americans who said they already had voted leaned heavily toward Ms. Harris, 59 percent to 40 percent."

Which is consistent with leads in previous elections.

They also quote a few of their undecided voters and as usual, the answer is "I don't like either of them but if I had to pick one it'll be Harris. Trump should be held accountable for Jan 6th"

Trump's lead on the economy has also halved in size since the last poll they took and Kamala's gained on immigration as well.

Their respondents largely said they trust her more, they like her more, and "double haters" will break for her over him.

So like I said, I'm not ready to panic yet

[Bronco 25,131]

I beg of y'all stop comparing to the 2020 presidential election and even the 2022 midterm elections. 

Please look at any country that voted around the same time and have voted since. 

Pandemic elections were anomalous. Exclude them from the data set you mentally work off like you would with any other anomalous result.  The COVID elections were the exception not the rule.