US Election Voting Tracker

[PartySick 172,535]

1 minute ago, Emvee said:

And it only took us a decade to get here. All it takes is one guy with enough charisma. 

Terrifying ain't it

[PartySick 172,535]

2 minutes ago, Gabe said:

Definitely, I volunteer for the Libs and have a seat in my local policy chair. I try my best

That's so cool

I'm just a low level volunteer for Dems in Florida but clearly this place is a bottomless MAGA pit and it's only getting deeper

I'd love to actively work on politics some day

[Morphine Prince 109,656]

I know this is dark but Florida’s only chance at going blue again is when Boomers start dying in masse.

Probably in a decade or so. 

[Gabe 2,587]

3 minutes ago, PartySick said:

That's so cool

I'm just a low level volunteer for Dems in Florida but clearly this place is a bottomless MAGA pit and it's only getting deeper

I'd love to actively work on politics some day

Thats EQUALLY cool haha

I interned at the US (In Canada) embassy for my masters, and that opened many doors. I'm obsessed with politics esp US-CDN relations. Hence me gawking the polls incessantly. 

[PartySick 172,535]

1 minute ago, Gabe said:

Thats EQUALLY cool haha

I interned at the US-CDN embassy for my masters, and that opened many doors. I'm obsessed with politics esp US-CDN relations. Hence me gawking the polls incessantly. 

Why is education so expensive here you're living my dream and I can't afford the degree 

Of course I'm just interested in domestic US politics really. We kinda have our hands full here

[Gabe 2,587]

Just now, PartySick said:

Why is education so expensive here you're living my dream and I can't afford the degree 

Of course I'm just interested in domestic US politics really. We kinda have our hands full here

It'll probably be shocking but i did an extra semester in my masters and it was $0 for tuition bc I reached the maximum allowable charge for a Masters. It was like $8000-9000CDN (6-7k USD). 
 

Canada is very tied you y'all down south, so we have a special obsession. <3 

[sarahb 17,188]

Very reputable poll just came out, time to doom again 

https://imgur.com/a/6IL7ACn

[sarahb 17,188]

This guy is explaining what's going on in Nevada

https://nitter.poast.org/SwannMarcus89/status/1849581193005568501?t=UKV5dimnuuEPRIHs8MbRJg&s=19

"Let me explain what's going to happen in early voting so that when it happens I can brag about it

Heavily Republican rural counties don't do mail voting because of conspiracy theories, but they get out incredibly early for early in person voting because the voters in those areas are abnormally old. This is why there is a huge discrepancy between early voting partisanship in Pennsylvania and Arizona: Arizona has much broader early in person voting and Pennsylvania early voting is entirely mail ballots. Therefore, rural Republican Arizonans vote early in person but rural Republican Pennsylvanians do not vote early because they don't trust mail voting

Because of this rural counties in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona got out to vote insanely early and rapidly got a massive turnout lead on more Democratic urban counties. This has led Republicans to believe they're running away with the election because early voters in these states are abnormally white, Republican, and rural so far.

The problem is the rural counties are going to hit their limit simply because there aren't enough voters there to maintain their leads forever. In Nevada, heavily Republican Nye County has already had 26% of its 2020 voters turn in their ballots, while Clark County is only at 17%. This is not a real turnout advantage: It's a demographic artifact caused by old Republicans showing up right at the beginning of the early voting period while younger urban Democrats haven't voted yet. Right now, only 5% of voters in Nevada have been 18-29 while 48% of voters are over 65. For perspective, only 26% of the Nevada electorate in 2020 was over 65, so they are currently almost double their share of the electorate 4 years ago. The final demographics of Nevada voters will look nothing like this.

What's going to happen over the next two weeks is this: Nevada will run out of 73 year old rural Republicans and the Republican percentage of early voters will begin to decline. The electorate will get younger, more urban, and less Republican and the advantage the GOP delusionally believes they currently have will erode before election day. Since Nevada's automatic registration registers people as independents by default - and younger voters are therefore being registered as independent at an abnormal rate - the independent vote in Nevada this year will also break to the Democrats at an abnormally high rate

If Trump loses Nevada, this will be the source of insane Republican conspiracy theories because they won't be smart enough to understand how they had such a big "lead" in Nevada's early voting and still lost, just like they couldn't understand how they had such big "leads" in 2020 and lost then, either"

[PartySick 172,535]

5 minutes ago, sarahb said:

Very reputable poll just came out, time to doom again 

https://imgur.com/a/6IL7ACn

BITCH YOU GOT ME

I read your post, went back to the Disease thread, then thought "nah lemme go quote sarahb and say 'FAKE NEWS' or something for the lols"

1 minute ago, sarahb said:

This guy is explaining what's going on in Nevada

https://nitter.poast.org/SwannMarcus89/status/1849581193005568501?t=UKV5dimnuuEPRIHs8MbRJg&s=19

"Let me explain what's going to happen in early voting so that when it happens I can brag about it

Heavily Republican rural counties don't do mail voting because of conspiracy theories, but they get out incredibly early for early in person voting because the voters in those areas are abnormally old. This is why there is a huge discrepancy between early voting partisanship in Pennsylvania and Arizona: Arizona has much broader early in person voting and Pennsylvania early voting is entirely mail ballots. Therefore, rural Republican Arizonans vote early in person but rural Republican Pennsylvanians do not vote early because they don't trust mail voting

Because of this rural counties in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona got out to vote insanely early and rapidly got a massive turnout lead on more Democratic urban counties. This has led Republicans to believe they're running away with the election because early voters in these states are abnormally white, Republican, and rural so far.

The problem is the rural counties are going to hit their limit simply because there aren't enough voters there to maintain their leads forever. In Nevada, heavily Republican Nye County has already had 26% of its 2020 voters turn in their ballots, while Clark County is only at 17%. This is not a real turnout advantage: It's a demographic artifact caused by old Republicans showing up right at the beginning of the early voting period while younger urban Democrats haven't voted yet. Right now, only 5% of voters in Nevada have been 18-29 while 48% of voters are over 65. For perspective, only 26% of the Nevada electorate in 2020 was over 65, so they are currently almost double their share of the electorate 4 years ago. The final demographics of Nevada voters will look nothing like this.

What's going to happen over the next two weeks is this: Nevada will run out of 73 year old rural Republicans and the Republican percentage of early voters will begin to decline. The electorate will get younger, more urban, and less Republican and the advantage the GOP delusionally believes they currently have will erode before election day. Since Nevada's automatic registration registers people as independents by default - and younger voters are therefore being registered as independent at an abnormal rate - the independent vote in Nevada this year will also break to the Democrats at an abnormally high rate

If Trump loses Nevada, this will be the source of insane Republican conspiracy theories because they won't be smart enough to understand how they had such a big "lead" in Nevada's early voting and still lost, just like they couldn't understand how they had such big "leads" in 2020 and lost then, either"

I mean, yeah. This was even kind of a thing in 2020 just 'cause they counted the absentee ballots after in person ballots. Trump's own people told him he'd be in the lead but it could be a mirage.

That's why I'm not gonna be even remotely upset until Nov 6th if things don't go our way 'cause I really believe we've got this

[sarahb 17,188]

3 minutes ago, PartySick said:

BITCH YOU GOT ME

I read your post, went back to the Disease thread, then thought "nah lemme go quote sarahb and say 'FAKE NEWS' or something for the lols"

I mean, yeah. This was even kind of a thing in 2020 just 'cause they counted the absentee ballots after in person ballots. Trump's own people told him he'd be in the lead but it could be a mirage.

That's why I'm not gonna be even remotely upset until Nov 6th if things don't go our way 'cause I really believe we've got this

Someone got me with it so I had to pass it along 

I figure the election is gonna come and go whether I'm confident or not so may as well not be completely miserable lol. But I am genuinely confident, there's just that but what if and memories of 2016 that keeps sneaking in sometimes 

[Morphine Prince 109,656]

Yeah…. she’s taking NC…. she just has to get more independents than Trump to win if it continues like this. 

[sarahb 17,188]

2 hours ago, Morphine Prince said:

Yeah…. she’s taking NC…. she just has to get more independents than Trump to win if it continues like this. 

Also some of those Republicans are voting for her. Moreso than Dems voting for Trump

[PartySick 172,535]

The timestamp isn't working  it's around 24 minutes, they have is sectioned off as "Elon's ads"

I can't find the ads themselves but they played them in my current favorite podcast and I just....the BLATANT racism and antisemitism

"Hey, Arab Americans, don't vote for Kamala! She likes Israel and married a Jew! Look at this Star of David and be scared!"

"Hey, Jewish Americans! Don't vote for 'Ka-mah-la'! She likes Palestine and doesn't want Gazans to die! Listen to this Arab music and be scared!"

But also like Will said, the absolute stupidity to air both ads under the same name so people can easily see how manipulative Elon and Trump are trying to be.

[PartySick 172,535]

Also some of these ads are genuinely chilling. This sh*t needs to be on air 24/7 in certain states *coughTexasandFloridacough*

 

[Bronco 25,122]

So Lancaster County, PA has just foiled a voter fraud scheme. News Conf on it coming at 11.30am local time for PA. 

Not entirely sure how strong the sources are for the following tweets. But they are suggesting it was a Republican scam - appears to have targeted Amish voters.