US Election Voting Tracker

[Ladle Ghoulash 53,279]

43 minutes ago, Gardevoir said:

Slightly off topic, but I wonder. Since when is Florida such a red state? I always somehow portrayed Florida as being more liberal. Was it always like that? Or something happened in between? I know there’s a lot of migrants there. Is it that? I’m just curious, don’t eat me. Haha

FL was considered a swing state until 2016 (when Trump first won the state) and has been considered fairly conservative since (even though Biden only lost FL in 2020 by 3pts). 

[Bronco 25,210]

50 minutes ago, Moonlight on Water said:

so who else is drinking tomorrow night? what is your choice of poison?

Thanks to timezones I'm waking up at 2am for the east coast results coming in and then powering through until work is over at 3pm my time lol

So I'm gonna snort some of the preworkout i have 🤡😂

[Whigney Houstan 1,250]

54 minutes ago, Moonlight on Water said:

so who else is drinking tomorrow night? what is your choice of poison?

Vicodin!

[ROHKEUS 677]

1 hour ago, Moonlight on Water said:

so who else is drinking tomorrow night? what is your choice of poison?

Bianca del Rio will be here in my city, so I won’t be able to take nothing, but after getting home I’m surely taking some bromazepam, can’t drink or smoke anymore 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, LateToCult said:

Nebraska: Super Republican seat BUT the independent candidate is in a dead heat against the Republican. If he wins, he may caucus with Democrats. Unfortunately, this is looking like our best shot.

Do you think the candidate would eventually caucus with Democrats or rather stay independent and vote like Sinema? 

Also, thank you so much for your compact but detailed overview. It really helped!

[PartySick 172,546]

1 hour ago, Gardevoir said:

Slightly off topic, but I wonder. Since when is Florida such a red state? I always somehow portrayed Florida as being more liberal. Was it always like that? Or something happened in between? I know there’s a lot of migrants there. Is it that? I’m just curious, don’t eat me. Haha

It's been trending right since 2012 after Obama lost it. There's a few reasons that I can think of.

NASA used to be a draw for college educated people who wanted to work with the space program but now Blue Origin and Space X have basically taken over as private replacements for the federal space program. Now, college educated folks have to go elsewhere to find fulfilling work.

It's also a retirement state with a widening gap of older and younger people.

Cubans in South Florida have trended more conservative in the last few cycles as well, lots of theories for that. Unfortunately, there aren't enough moderate/liberal Puerto Ricans to offset that backslide in Florida's Hispanic vote.

Since DeSantis barely won, he's rigged the state to be more appealing to conservatives so you have a kind of migration from blue states to Florida. Hurts the margins here but it helps a bit with other states, like the Rust Belt states.

I honestly believe the 2022 election here was a fluke. There is no way DeSantis and Rubio are that popular here lol. The Florida Democratic party has the absolute worst ground game to the point that a lot of people here actually believe the heads of it are sabotaging it intentionally. I mean, our candidates for governor and senate were a former Republican and cop respectively  I knew we were losing that one.

Thankfully, good candidates like Debbie Mucarsell-Powell have their fingers on the pulse of what could swing Florida back to the Dems this year. Her work with the Hispanic community has been incredible and she's been representing them for years now.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if either Trump or Kamala won Florida. I think people write it off as a loss, and yeah her time was better spent on the blue wall for sure, but I could definitely see her and Debbie winning here.

[PartySick 172,546]

3 hours ago, LateToCult said:

Well, it’s a little trickier to show the math for the Senate because not every seat is up for grabs, but essentially these are the important states:

Michigan - we think we can win

Wisconsin - we think we can win

Arizona - we think we can win

Nevada - we think we can win, even if we lose the state.

Pennsylvania - we think we can win even if we lose the state

Ohio - we think we can win even though we are going to lose the state, but it could be close.

Those 6 competitive seats get to 49. To go 50/50 in the senate and have Walz break tie votes, we need 1 more seat and that where the math gets tricky. We need at least one of the four seats:

Nebraska: Super Republican seat BUT the independent candidate is in a dead heat against the Republican. If he wins, he may caucus with Democrats. Unfortunately, this is looking like our best shot.

Texas: Ted Cruz is VERY unpopular in the state but it may not be enough to finally flip the state blue. Texas is just a little too red still. It would be kind of surprising if the Democrat wins here. Not impossible, but I don’t like our chances.

Montana: The incumbent is actually a Democrat and has won in this Republican state before. Unfortunately he’s behind in the polls because this is a year when Trump is on the ballot and Republicans are going to be voting down the ballot. Extremely unlikely that he keeps his seat. Still, not impossible.

Florida: There was a glimmer of hope that Democrats could take the seat because Rick Scott is unpopular. Early voting data is showing that Republicans are showing up to vote, so very unlikely that the Dems can flip the seat. Again, not impossible but highly unlikely.

Tester's rebounded in the polls and if that Iowa Selzer poll is any indication, Kamala could end up dragging him up across the finish line. I wouldn't write him off so quickly  

Osborn (Nebraska's independent) has said he wouldn't caucus with the Democrats though unfortunately. He's a pure independent. But maybe they could change his mind if he wins. It's certainly better than the Republican winning.

[Ladle Ghoulash 53,279]

3 minutes ago, PartySick said:

It's been trending right since 2012 after Obama lost it. There's a few reasons that I can think of.

NASA used to be a draw for college educated people who wanted to work with the space program but now Blue Origin and Space X have basically taken over as private replacements for the federal space program. Now, college educated folks have to go elsewhere to find fulfilling work.

It's also a retirement state with a widening gap of older and younger people.

Cubans in South Florida have trended more conservative in the last few cycles as well, lots of theories for that. Unfortunately, there aren't enough moderate/liberal Puerto Ricans to offset that backslide in Florida's Hispanic vote.

Since DeSantis barely won, he's rigged the state to be more appealing to conservatives so you have a kind of migration from blue states to Florida. Hurts the margins here but it helps a bit with other states, like the Rust Belt states.

I honestly believe the 2022 election here was a fluke. There is no way DeSantis and Rubio are that popular here lol. The Florida Democratic party has the absolute worst ground game to the point that a lot of people here actually believe the heads of it are sabotaging it intentionally. I mean, our candidates for governor and senate were a former Republican and cop respectively  I knew we were losing that one.

Thankfully, good candidates like Debbie Mucarsell-Powell have their fingers on the pulse of what could swing Florida back to the Dems this year. Her work with the Hispanic community has been incredible and she's been representing them for years now.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if either Trump or Kamala won Florida. I think people write it off as a loss, and yeah her time was better spent on the blue wall for sure, but I could definitely see her and Debbie winning here.

Not to be this person, but Obama won FL in 2012. 

[PartySick 172,546]

3 hours ago, Bronco said:

Slight detour because wtf America.

The dude who shot Osama out here saying if it weren't for social media he'd **** twinks?

https://x.com/mchooyah/status/1853247567456325956?t=wCrmnb7N7qTa5fREXMpWag&s=19

 

2 hours ago, ALGAYDO said:

One of the twinks responded 

https://twitter.com/itsdeaann/status/1853513971111985348?s=46
 

I- 

I absolutely f*cking adore American politics. We are a stupid, stupid people.

[PartySick 172,546]

2 minutes ago, Ladle Ghoulash said:

Not to be this person, but Obama won FL in 2012. 

I know, he won by less than 1% when he carried it by 3% in 2008  

It was Obama's second term and the rise of Trump that pushed this state to the right and DeSantis has been trying to nail it into place since 2018

[Togekiss 3,125]

I just voted! And will be getting no sleep for god knows how long!

[PartySick 172,546]

4 hours ago, Morphine Prince said:

I’m really hating the leftists on Twitter saying they want Harris to lose. These people are insufferable and it’s a reason I don’t want to be associated with them even though I have a lot of leftist views tbh. 

That's why I went back to labeling myself as a liberal  

They call us "blue MAGA" when they're the ones out here acting just as delusional, privileged, and detached from reality as any red hatted freak

[PartySick 172,546]

3 hours ago, LateToCult said:

Oh, well that actually could be a bit of a spoiler because it’s a story that targets young  men. The group we’re hoping stays home. The last thing we need is a Harambe moment tied to government overreach. 

Us sitting in the smoldering remains of America as a crumbling statue of Donald Trump, the 45th, 47th, 48th, and 49th president looks behind us

Some random orphan child: "how did this all happen? What went wrong?"

Us: "It all started with this f*cking gorilla"

[sarahb 17,188]

ATLAS POLL - U.S. ELECTIONS

In the final Atlas poll before the election, the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to just 1.1 percentage point.

🔴 Trump: 49.2%

🔵 Harris: 48.1%

⚪ Others/Undecided: 2.7%

https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1853588228982317064

[PartySick 172,546]

1 minute ago, sarahb said:

ATLAS POLL - U.S. ELECTIONS

In the final Atlas poll before the election, the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to just 1.1 percentage point.

🔴 Trump: 49.2%

🔵 Harris: 48.1%

⚪ Others/Undecided: 2.7%

https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1853588228982317064

Do me a favor and write "Atlas" and "intel" right next to each other with no space