US Election Voting Tracker

[doraemon 1,145]

i wish i can faint

[TeaHaus 158]

38 minutes ago, RAMROD said:

WTF it's insane how republicans almost half the state in CA?! Who are these people?!!

Journey outside LA and San Fran lol it’s a bit like NY - outside of the 5 boroughs the state leans more right.

but a Californian or New York republican is basically equivalent to a democrat from 15-20 years ago 

[RAMROD 117,964]

12 minutes ago, 27monster27 said:

California is a huge state. While it is stereotyped as being democrat (understandably), it has a lot of conservative parts. Some of the areas around San Diego are a good example.

Simi Valley & Bakersfield can't be that big (joking ofc) 

[PartySick 174,197]

8 minutes ago, chromaticainmyhead said:

He didn't give the incumbency keys to her though

I know but he still considers it a bonus when voters increasingly want new people

Literally the only reason Tammy Baldwin is having trouble is 'cause she's been in office since 2012. The voters constantly say things like "yeah she's good but she's been in there for a while, huh?" when asked why they're voting for her opponent

Also, this is the second president in a row that's leaving after one term

[PartySick 174,197]

20 minutes ago, Hennycomb said:

The fact that each state or county can choose different methods makes it WEIRDER. Here in Brazil we have a neutral national agency that overlooks the whole process in the entire country, with state-level agencies and city-level agencies. All 5.570 Brazilian cities use the same machine provided by this agency, we have extensive measures to avoid fraud, like printing the count of zero votes at the beginning of the day to prove the machines aren't pre-programmed and everything, then at the end of the day another receipt is printed out and sent to this agency to count. EVERYONE 18+ and -60 is OBLIGATED to vote (with a blank option) and we find out the results in the same day. I always follow the U.S presidential elections and I'm always baffled. It never feels right, idk 

US elections are intentionally messy and difficult. I can't be convinced otherwise

19 minutes ago, HelloHangoverz said:

Are polls still neck and neck?

edit: just checked, a 1.7 lead in national polls? (My knowledge of current US politics is what I get from surface level googling)....that's good I suppose but still mind boggling given who she's up against.

Don't even pay attention to the polls tbh. They're meaningless for us now that people are actually voting.

Besides, Republican pollsters are still saturating the averages that's why you see Trump's number going up but Kamala remaining around 48% or higher.

[Guest]

Early voting records being shattered everywhere. 
 

[HelloHangoverz 17,452]

Just now, PartySick said:

US elections are intentionally messy and difficult. I can't be convinced otherwise

Don't even pay attention to the polls tbh. They're meaningless for us now that people are actually voting.

Besides, Republican pollsters are still saturating the averages that's why you see Trump's number going up but Kamala remaining around 48% or higher.

Lmao! Trump leading the way with 99% of the vote! Also look over there!

[PartySick 174,197]

Just now, HelloHangoverz said:

Lmao! Trump leading the way with 99% of the vote! Also look over there!

One of them literally had him winning 48% of black voters in Pennsylvania like

Absolutely ridiculous lmao

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, PartySick said:

I know but he still considers it a bonus when voters increasingly want new people

Literally the only reason Tammy Baldwin is having trouble is 'cause she's been in office since 2012. The voters constantly say things like "yeah she's good but she's been in there for a while, huh?" when asked why they're voting for her opponent

Also, this is the second president in a row that's leaving after one term

On the other hand though, Lichtman has been right about elections since the 80s and he sounds legit talking about his arguments

[Morphine Prince 109,925]

25 minutes ago, Hennycomb said:

The fact that each state or county can choose different methods makes it WEIRDER. Here in Brazil we have a neutral national agency that overlooks the whole process in the entire country, with state-level agencies and city-level agencies. All 5.570 Brazilian cities use the same machine provided by this agency, we have extensive measures to avoid fraud, like printing the count of zero votes at the beginning of the day to prove the machines aren't pre-programmed and everything, then at the end of the day another receipt is printed out and sent to this agency to count. EVERYONE 18+ and -60 is OBLIGATED to vote (with a blank option) and we find out the results in the same day. I always follow the U.S presidential elections and I'm always baffled. It never feels right, idk 

Well, that makes a lot of sense. 

So of course that’s NOT how it is done in the US  

Especially with close elections like this one is predicted to be, we probably won’t know results until days later. 

[HelloHangoverz 17,452]

Just now, PartySick said:

One of them literally had him winning 48% of black voters in Pennsylvania like

Absolutely ridiculous lmao

That's too domestic for my overseas ass but I'm sure I would agree with you if I was familiar haha

[Morphine Prince 109,925]

1 minute ago, HelloHangoverz said:

That's too domestic for my overseas ass but I'm sure I would agree with you if I was familiar haha

80-90% of Black Americans vote for Democrats. 

Some of these polls are ridiculous. 

[PartySick 174,197]

@HelloHangoverz omg I just remembered one of the polls was literally opt-in through an online ad and you could join from anywhere. A dude living in Vietnam with a VPN could pose as a voter in Michigan in that poll and yes it counts towards 538's average

Just now, HelloHangoverz said:

That's too domestic for my overseas ass but I'm sure I would agree with you if I was familiar haha

Kamala's easily getting 80%+ of the black vote. Closer to 90% honestly. So that poll was crazy 

2 minutes ago, chromaticainmyhead said:

On the other hand though, Lichtman has been right about elections since the 80s and he sounds legit talking about his arguments

Yeaaaah but elections have changed dramatically, even since 2016. 40 year old prediction metrics don't apply.

I don't deny that he's got a good grasp on the situation and he's very politically aware, I just don't like his stupid voting keys model

[Concertaholic 6,652]

1 hour ago, GregJA said:

Just remember - this is early voting - Dems are always ahead - but 2024 they are vastly/moderately behind versus previous elections and Republicans are vastly/moderately ahead verses their position in early voting in previous elections. 
 

just a reminder 

Can you share your source of where you saw this? I’d be interested to look at it

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Concertaholic said:

Can you share your source of where you saw this? I’d be interested to look at it

I've been following this guy breaking down the early voting stats from official sources and analyzing them. He sounds pretty legit if u ask me