Reminder: Tickets for Joker Folie à Deux go on sale today!

[Reality 70,362]

5 hours ago, Future Lovers said:

It isn’t going well. 

Pre-sales aren’t everything but it’s first day sales have been pretty abysmal. Lagging behind both The Marvels’ and The Flash’s first days.

Empire City wants to wait a few days to see if they’re changing the OW prediction but if things hold like they did today, a $100 million DOM OW is off the table.   

I'm not familiar with pre-sales numbers for many movies, but I have no doubts that this movie will do far better than both The Marvels and The Flash opening weekend. IIRC, the estimates were ~$115-$145 million domestic. I can definitely see it hitting that mark. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice got $110 million for its opening weekend and I think Joker 2 is of a similar notoriety, if not more. 

I think it's because the movie, for as high-profile as it is, still flies under the radar for a lot of people. Even amongst comic book fans, they're constantly talking about the MCU or the DCU. And if they're talking about an Elseworlds movie, they're usually talking about Matt Reeves' The Batman and not Joker. For many comic book film fans, it's always like "Oh yeah, and Joker 2's coming out too."

I think what'll make or break the film is going to be the audience response. Critics are one thing—many of them didn't like the first Joker movie either and the film was still immensely successful. Audiences were also divided on Joker, but I think more people liked it than not. Regardless, word of mouth will be tremendously important for this movie's box office.

[Future Lovers 6,223]

35 minutes ago, Reality said:

I'm not familiar with pre-sales numbers for many movies, but I have no doubts that this movie will do far better than both The Marvels and The Flash opening weekend. IIRC, the estimates were ~$115-$145 million domestic. I can definitely see it hitting that mark. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice got $110 million for its opening weekend and I think Joker 2 is of a similar notoriety, if not more. 

I think it's because the movie, for as high-profile as it is, still flies under the radar for a lot of people. Even amongst comic book fans, they're constantly talking about the MCU or the DCU. And if they're talking about an Elseworlds movie, they're usually talking about Matt Reeves' The Batman and not Joker. For many comic book film fans, it's always like "Oh yeah, and Joker 2's coming out too."

I think what'll make or break the film is going to be the audience response. Critics are one thing—many of them didn't like the first Joker movie either and the film was still immensely successful. Audiences were also divided on Joker, but I think more people liked it than not. Regardless, word of mouth will be tremendously important for this movie's box office.

I have to say, at least from my perspective, there is very, very little chance that the film's going to open to $115-$145 million domestic, at least at this juncture. I'd love to be wrong though. I have been before! But there's a lot of red flags at the moment that go even beyond just this abysmal first day of sales.

It may cross that $100 million mark domestically opening weekend. It may, But there's gotta be some face saving between now and then. 

Pre-sales are a good indication of what the core audience is going to do with a film. Those that are a built in fan of a franchise or brand will show up for pre-sales unless they've been turned off from it which is what we saw happening with The Marvels.

Now to be clear, I don't think it's opening weekend is going to be as small as The Marvels or The Flash's, but this first day of pre-sales is a big, big sign that the hype for the movie online is not translating outside of the bubbles it's coming from. As I said earlier, pre-sales aren't everything, but it's a sign of a problem when a sequel to a billion dollar film is performing this poorly in ticket sales when they go live. 

The first film's reputation has shifted quite a bit since 2019, and the shift hasn't been an overall positive one. The more time passes, the less overwhelming praise people throw toward it. It's not entirely the film's fault; it being latched onto by incel culture is not it's doing. But more people are also becoming aware of just how derivative a film it is (with scenes literally pulled almost beat for beat from other films) and how weak it's screenplay is which didn't commented on much outside of critics at the time. As such, WB already had a bit of an uphill climb on their hands reigniting audience enthusiasm. 

But they haven't. The press campaign so far has not turned in good results. The metrics and feedback it's been getting suggests a lot of outright confusion over what the film is, and everyone involved's refusal to call it a musical when we know it most definitely is way more of a musical than they've been leading on is not going to help that. 

You are correct about word of mouth. It's going to make or break the film. And if the film really ends the way I've read that it ends from those who were present or heard about it at Venice...I think we all need to buckle up. 

I don't think the movie is going to be a flop, but I also think that it is not going to come anywhere even close to hitting $1 billion. I think it's gonna be a sharp decline in total earnings when it's all said and done. 

I'll make a more specific estimate when I see opening weekend numbers, but I think the film's really gonna have a ceiling somewhere in the $700 millions, and even that I'm not so sure of right now. 

As for OW predictions on my end, I need to see more pre-sale data than just one day and then will need to see what it's true Friday take is. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-$100 million domestic. It very well could be more. I hope it's more. I hope it hits the current estimates. But also prepare for that estimate to start to lower across the next few days. It's gonna have to pick some positive steam back up between now and then. 

Maybe a good promo tour can do that. We've seen Gaga hit that out of the park before. Maybe there's still a chance she wins back some audience favor (which could be a double edged sword considering how much of this she's actually in jnkhknl)

Edited September 10 by Future Lovers

[ALGAYDO 28,977]

I’m so sad that I couldn’t get the sept. 30 tickets  I got early access tickets for ASIB and HOG, so it sucks that I can’t do it with FAD, but at least I secured my Thursday tickets 

[Tinnitus15 50,005]

I hope the worldwide ticket sales will be open soon. I need to get a ticket 

[Reality 70,362]

8 hours ago, Future Lovers said:

I have to say, at least from my perspective, there is very, very little chance that the film's going to open to $115-$145 million domestic, at least at this juncture. I'd love to be wrong though. I have been before! But there's a lot of red flags at the moment that go even beyond just this abysmal first day of sales.

It may cross that $100 million mark domestically opening weekend. It may, But there's gotta be some face saving between now and then. 

Pre-sales are a good indication of what the core audience is going to do with a film. Those that are a built in fan of a franchise or brand will show up for pre-sales unless they've been turned off from it which is what we saw happening with The Marvels.

Now to be clear, I don't think it's opening weekend is going to be as small as The Marvels or The Flash's, but this first day of pre-sales is a big, big sign that the hype for the movie online is not translating outside of the bubbles it's coming from. As I said earlier, pre-sales aren't everything, but it's a sign of a problem when a sequel to a billion dollar film is performing this poorly in ticket sales when they go live. 

The first film's reputation has shifted quite a bit since 2019, and the shift hasn't been an overall positive one. The more time passes, the less overwhelming praise people throw toward it. It's not entirely the film's fault; it being latched onto by incel culture is not it's doing. But more people are also becoming aware of just how derivative a film it is (with scenes literally pulled almost beat for beat from other films) and how weak it's screenplay is which didn't commented on much outside of critics at the time. As such, WB already had a bit of an uphill climb on their hands reigniting audience enthusiasm. 

But they haven't. The press campaign so far has not turned in good results. The metrics and feedback it's been getting suggests a lot of outright confusion over what the film is, and everyone involved's refusal to call it a musical when we know it most definitely is way more of a musical than they've been leading on is not going to help that. 

You are correct about word of mouth. It's going to make or break the film. And if the film really ends the way I've read that it ends from those who were present or heard about it at Venice...I think we all need to buckle up. 

I don't think the movie is going to be a flop, but I also think that it is not going to come anywhere even close to hitting $1 billion. I think it's gonna be a sharp decline in total earnings when it's all said and done. 

I'll make a more specific estimate when I see opening weekend numbers, but I think the film's really gonna have a ceiling somewhere in the $700 millions, and even that I'm not so sure of right now. 

As for OW predictions on my end, I need to see more pre-sale data than just one day and then will need to see what it's true Friday take is. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-$100 million domestic. It very well could be more. I hope it's more. I hope it hits the current estimates. But also prepare for that estimate to start to lower across the next few days. It's gonna have to pick some positive steam back up between now and then. 

Maybe a good promo tour can do that. We've seen Gaga hit that out of the park before. Maybe there's still a chance she wins back some audience favor (which could be a double edged sword considering how much of this she's actually in jnkhknl)

I will say, I do not expect Joker 2 to make over a billion dollars. I think the first movie truly captured lightning in a bottle and I don't think the sequel is going to be able to replicate its success. 

You mentioned a lot of things that I don't disagree with. I think the conversation surrounding the quality of the first movie largely continues to call it "derivative" and a movie that promotes incel culture. Both of which I actually vehemently disagree with, but that's beside the point. The point is that those conversations are taking place, and you're right, their changed perceptions of the first film could impact whether or not they see the second. 

I also agree that the campaign for the film has been less than stellar. The trailers and the marketing for the film have been great, but when it comes to some of the statements that Phillips, Gaga, or Phoenix put out, it's garnered some not-so-great press. I think the largest "controversy" surrounding the press for the movie so far is the refusal to call it a musical. And to be honest, I find it disappointing that this is the route they decided to take. I think that leaning into the musical aspects of the film would've differentiated it from many comic book movies in recent years. Joker is objectively doing something very interesting and different, but they're not marketing that, which is frustrating. 

All Joker 2 needs to do opening weekend is beat its predecessor—$96 million domestic. I think that is possible, and I think it will do that. We'll see though. The first day's ticket sales may not have been good, but I still have faith that this film will do well financially. 

[Stephen 30,175]

10 hours ago, PunkTheFunk said:

Got my ticket for Oct 4th! Don't care if it ends up with a 20% Rotten Tomatoes score and a $5 opening weekend. I just can't wait to see Gaga on a big IMAX screen!

SAME. and as a DC fan I'm used to being disappointed at the movies

it's exciting to see this simultaneous addition to DC lore + Gaga lore

[Trigger 227]

I just got my ticket for Oct 4th! But I'm sad I couldn't get an early fan screening. Are they just not happening in the UK at all?

[Ashley 8,340]

All of the early showings in my city are sold out. I haven’t been to a packed movie theater in a long time since I usually prefer to go during the day. So excited! 

[Future Lovers 6,223]

Pre-sales unfortunately continuing to decline from an already weak first day. Expecting adjustments to the OW predictions from the box office analysts here soon.