WA primary first bellwether for November

[LateToCult 42,098]

Spoiler

Our August primary is often like this, equal parts bizarre and boring. But according to some election experts, it has become, at the same time, the most telling bellwether primary vote in the nation.

“As goes Washington state, so goes the rest of the country,” says Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst for Real Clear Politics in Washington, D.C.

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Blue wave, or red? Most of the big shifts going back three decades have been forecast first by what happened in Washington’s quirky primary.

“You’ve got a unique thing going on, where all the candidates appear on the same ballot, no matter the party, and voters are free to choose from any of them,” Trende said. “It’s better than the polls.”

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It works like this: You add up all the votes cast in the federal races, for Democrats and Republicans, and compare them. This broad metric has been a fairly reliable forecast for which party will have an edge nationally going back to 1992.

We’re hardly a battleground state, so the results have to be judged on a curve. Trende has found that if Democrats get more than 60% of the total primary vote here, it signals a blue wave may be coming.

That’s what happened in 2018 — the party totaled 62% of the vote in our primary. Then Democrats nationally rode a “Trump resistance” vote that November to retake both the U.S. House and Senate.

If Republicans can keep Democrats down closer to 50% here, it’s red wave on the horizon. That’s what happened in the Tea Party “shellacking” of 2010. (Democrats got only 50.1% of the total Washington primary vote.) In the famed Republican revolution year of 1994, Democrats’ share here was only 45.2% — one of the only times the blue party hasn’t won a majority.

An in-between primary vote — with Democrats winning around 55% — signals probably no big change. That’s what happened in 2022, as Democrats won 56% here in August, the first sign that the much-hyped GOP red wave that year wasn’t going to roll in.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/was-bloody-mess-of-a-primary-is-something-else-a-bellwether/

70% of the vote is counted. Washington is only mail-in so we can’t really say that the remaining ballots will swing to the left. They could actually be right leaning. 
 

From the numbers we’re seeing so far I wouldn’t say they’re terrible for Dems but a blue wave in the House probably isn’t coming. Looks more like a tight race with slim Dem advantage. We’ll have to wait for all ballots to be counted to get a clearer picture.

Voter turnout seems to be low. Especially young voters. Republican turnout also low. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/06/us/elections/results-washington-primary.html

[Cameltoe Chariot 15,310]

5 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Our August primary is often like this, equal parts bizarre and boring. But according to some election experts, it has become, at the same time, the most telling bellwether primary vote in the nation.

“As goes Washington state, so goes the rest of the country,” says Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst for Real Clear Politics in Washington, D.C.

-

Blue wave, or red? Most of the big shifts going back three decades have been forecast first by what happened in Washington’s quirky primary.

“You’ve got a unique thing going on, where all the candidates appear on the same ballot, no matter the party, and voters are free to choose from any of them,” Trende said. “It’s better than the polls.”

-

It works like this: You add up all the votes cast in the federal races, for Democrats and Republicans, and compare them. This broad metric has been a fairly reliable forecast for which party will have an edge nationally going back to 1992.

We’re hardly a battleground state, so the results have to be judged on a curve. Trende has found that if Democrats get more than 60% of the total primary vote here, it signals a blue wave may be coming.

That’s what happened in 2018 — the party totaled 62% of the vote in our primary. Then Democrats nationally rode a “Trump resistance” vote that November to retake both the U.S. House and Senate.

If Republicans can keep Democrats down closer to 50% here, it’s red wave on the horizon. That’s what happened in the Tea Party “shellacking” of 2010. (Democrats got only 50.1% of the total Washington primary vote.) In the famed Republican revolution year of 1994, Democrats’ share here was only 45.2% — one of the only times the blue party hasn’t won a majority.

An in-between primary vote — with Democrats winning around 55% — signals probably no big change. That’s what happened in 2022, as Democrats won 56% here in August, the first sign that the much-hyped GOP red wave that year wasn’t going to roll in.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/was-bloody-mess-of-a-primary-is-something-else-a-bellwether/

70% of the vote is counted. Washington is only mail-in so we can’t really say that the remaining ballots will swing to the left. They could actually be right leaning. 
 

From the numbers we’re seeing so far I wouldn’t say they’re terrible for Dems but a blue wave in the House probably isn’t coming. Looks more like a tight race with slim Dem advantage. We’ll have to wait for all ballots to be counted to get a clearer picture.

Voter turnout seems to be low. Especially young voters. Republican turnout also low. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/06/us/elections/results-washington-primary.html

I really don't think a lot of young voters are gonna submit their ballots early/by mail. This election is likely gonna be a "moment" much like Obama's first run, where the left is going to be hyper-activated in the last couple of weeks and election day turnout will be insane.

[LateToCult 42,098]

2 minutes ago, Cameltoe Chariot said:

I really don't think a lot of young voters are gonna submit their ballots early/by mail. This election is likely gonna be a "moment" much like Obama's first run, where the left is going to be hyper-activated in the last couple of weeks and election day turnout will be insane.

WA is only mail and it’s pretty easy to vote. Literally just drop it off at a voting box at any time of the day or night. Not necessarily a good sign that even then young voters didn’t turn up. 
 

Dems have a lot of work to do. The good thing is we still have the convention to look forward to. 

[Snorlax 6,387]

Well it's over  we need a blue wave, if kamala wins by a slight margin i just know that orange bitch and his cronies will stop at nothing to prevent election certification in swing states won by Kamala

[SpadesToStart 3,851]

10 minutes ago, Snorlax said:

Well it's over  we need a blue wave, if kamala wins by a slight margin i just know that orange bitch and his cronies will stop at nothing to prevent election certification in swing states won by Kamala

This is more about Congressional races than what the margins for the Presidential election will be.

Bear in mind, this is also a very unconventional election year with the way things played out with Biden. The top of the ticket does have a trickle down effect, so provided Kamala’s campaign continues to build, the ultimate results could easily improve upon the primary.

[Bronco 27,528]

23 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

WA is only mail and it’s pretty easy to vote. Literally just drop it off at a voting box at any time of the day or night. Not necessarily a good sign that even then young voters didn’t turn up. 
 

Dems have a lot of work to do. The good thing is we still have the convention to look forward to. 

Does WA have early voting though? 
Could we be seeing a hybrid result of a Biden v Trump match up hypothetically & a Harris v Trump match up?

[LateToCult 42,098]

7 minutes ago, Bronco said:

Does WA have early voting though? 
Could we be seeing a hybrid result of a Biden v Trump match up hypothetically & a Harris v Trump match up?

I think I got my ballot like 20 or 25 days ago? Not sure but you get a pretty generous amount of time and you can drop it off at anytime until the night of Election Day when it officially closes. If you choose to mail your ballot at a post office they accept them up until the last second. That’s why we still get votes coming in days after. 

[Nemo 4,414]

I make it about 58% Democratic votes, for whatever that's worth.

[gemein3 1,474]

Not trying to sound rude, but using this to declare a “blue wave probably isn’t coming” is a bit misguided. You can point to several bell weather elections that proved to be nothing. 

Treating any aspect of the 2024 election as normal, and using previous metrics to give us any guidance is literally just that — a suggestion. It is not fortune telling as this post is sort of suggesting.

Post-Trump, the old rules are increasingly irrelevant. Go out, galvanize, and vote. 

[DopeEnigma 1,815]

Honestly this means nothing, all that matters is the results on election day, go and vote if you’re concerned and make sure the idiot doesn’t get in again. That’s all there is to discuss until after the election.

[LateToCult 42,098]

48 minutes ago, gemein3 said:

Not trying to sound rude, but using this to declare a “blue wave probably isn’t coming” is a bit misguided. You can point to several bell weather elections that proved to be nothing. 

Treating any aspect of the 2024 election as normal, and using previous metrics to give us any guidance is literally just that — a suggestion. It is not fortune telling as this post is sort of suggesting.

Post-Trump, the old rules are increasingly irrelevant. Go out, galvanize, and vote. 

I don’t agree that it’s misguided. In fact, I think it’s a very reasonable statement. I have yet to see solid information that shows we’re going to see a blue wave from any source. Kamala is just barely starting to get out of the moe in a lot of polls. The House usually falls a little to the right of the presidential race. As of right now, perfectly reasonable to think we’ll end up winning the House by only a few seats. Plus this has withstood all Trump era elections so far.

That being said, I do have hope that Dems will end up having a better showing because they have the tools at their disposal.

I can definitely see why it may seem like I’m using it as a crystal ball. I certainly wasn’t very descriptive about my thoughts. 

34 minutes ago, DopeEnigma said:

Honestly this means nothing, all that matters is the results on election day, go and vote if you’re concerned and make sure the idiot doesn’t get in again. That’s all there is to discuss until after the election.

Again, I disagree. If these results stand until all votes are counted then it should be a bit of a wake up call that Dems still have a lot of work to do. Fortunately, they have the time, money, and shiny new nominee to make some strides.

[thefamebitch 834]

Everyone, go vote on Election Day and stop reading into all of this crap.  Will any of this change who you’re voting for in November?  No?  Didn’t think so. 

[Petie Estie 5,736]

IDK how you can live in the current day and think votes from before Harris was the nominee indicate anything about what is going to happen in November

[LateToCult 42,098]

31 minutes ago, SEANGT said:

IDK how you can live in the current day and think votes from before Harris was the nominee indicate anything about what is going to happen in November

Harris was the presumptive nominee for a majority of the voting period. I think some of you are just upset that the title of this thread isn’t “landslide for Dems incoming.”