CNN poll shows dismal numbers for Biden

[Nemo 4,414]

1 hour ago, gemein3 said:

I don’t even know a single soul who’s been polled. I’ve been active and engaged in politics since 2008 and I have never met anyone who has — my point? 

Who are they polling to get these results? 

I've been polled sometimes in previous election cycles, but not for a while. It doesn't help that I keep a list of allowed incoming numbers, and block everything else. (That used to be how I was polled -- random phone calls.)

[Bronco 28,136]

All I'll say is, polling never gets volatile elections right. 

And there is no doubt in my mind that Nov 2024 will be a volatile electorate. It's very hard to predict how an electorate, especially low activity voters and new voters, will behave in years like this where there is so many competing agenda items. 

There's a case in the Supreme Court atm that could potentially ban the most common abortion drug in the USA, if that were to happen we could expect a very strong showing for the Democrats - as we know that the Roe repeal killed off a Red wave in 2022 & continues to impact the GOP when pro-choice activists get abortion onto the ballot at a state level. Trump's final positioning on a federal ban will also play into this. - for many voters, we know this will be a major decider in voting based on available data.
 
We have no idea how the Gaza conflict will impact voters, and we have no idea what position the Gaza conflict will be at by the time the postal ballots start in October. In tight races, this will absolutely be an important factor in who wins. 

We don't really know how the court cases for Trump will impact the important votes in this election - the swing voters. The MAGA muppets are very unlikely to abandon him, loyal Dem voters will already be convinced he's guilty (he is). What matters is what the ordinary voter trapped in the middle feels about any potential convictions. 

I genuinely think this is going to be much like the Brexit referendum, the 2015 UK election, the 2016 US election, the 2022 Midterms etc where pollsters just have no way of accurately predicting the on the day makeup of voters.

[Spartacus 4,485]

49 minutes ago, Nemo said:

Under current law, no, he would not. Nor ever again.

I could easily see Trump trying to change that law (nearly impossible, it would require a constitutional amendment), and I could also see him trying to just ignore it, like he did with the results of the 2020 election.

Well that's comforting tbh.

[PartySick 174,737]

1 hour ago, Bronco said:

We have no idea how the Gaza conflict will impact voters, and we have no idea what position the Gaza conflict will be at by the time the postal ballots start in October. In tight races, this will absolutely be an important factor in who wins. 

I don't think this issue is as big as some people think. When they polled for electorate stances (which tend to be way more accurate than candidate vs candidate), the Israel/Gaza issue was only "incredibly important" to less than 5% of voters

There was a Democratic congresswoman that just won her primary over a pro-Israel Democrat in Pennsylvania. She was the first to call for a ceasefire, for some reason I can't recall her name  she'll easily coast to reelection against any Republican though, her seat is safe.

More mixed or moderate areas might see criticism of Israel as antisemitism, which could sway a handful of people one way or the other but I doubt it'd sway people SO FAR they'd flip flop from Biden to Trump. That's a drastic difference for a small issue like that.

Tl;dr - anyone who is already considering Biden won't be turned off by his Gaza stance, especially when he's doing a good job of playing both sides ("Israel has a right to defend itself but not a right to do all the sh*t they're doing" basically)

[StarstruckIllusion 53,773]

“Biden’s deficit with voters in that group is driven largely by those who did not vote in 2020. With that group excluded, voters between the ages of 18 and 34 in this poll divide 46% for Biden to 47% for Trump.”

Okay this gives me hope…

But I wonder why people who liked Trump didn’t vote in 2020. Like obv the Bernie or bust movement but why would those people say Trump is better when he’s obviously not? Did they think he was going to win or dont care about voting in general? Can we count on them to stay home again 

[Economy 53,161]

3 hours ago, Concertaholic said:

Hence the word somewhere, that’s the beauty of EU citizenship, I have so many options. And at the end of the day, the idea of being able to go to the grocery store without the real and constant fear of someone with a machine gun coming in and killing you as would be the case in most of the EU countries vs the US sounds pretty nice.

Id still be more afraid of living in EU closer to Russia than getting shot randomly at the store for no reason

 

I feel the former is much more likely to really negatively affect u in some way

[bionic 50,112]

at this point i think the only purrson who could beat trump is taylor swift

[Bronco 28,136]

2 hours ago, PartySick said:

I don't think this issue is as big as some people think. When they polled for electorate stances (which tend to be way more accurate than candidate vs candidate), the Israel/Gaza issue was only "incredibly important" to less than 5% of voters

There was a Democratic congresswoman that just won her primary over a pro-Israel Democrat in Pennsylvania. She was the first to call for a ceasefire, for some reason I can't recall her name  she'll easily coast to reelection against any Republican though, her seat is safe.

More mixed or moderate areas might see criticism of Israel as antisemitism, which could sway a handful of people one way or the other but I doubt it'd sway people SO FAR they'd flip flop from Biden to Trump. That's a drastic difference for a small issue like that.

Tl;dr - anyone who is already considering Biden won't be turned off by his Gaza stance, especially when he's doing a good job of playing both sides ("Israel has a right to defend itself but not a right to do all the sh*t they're doing" basically)

I tend to agree. 

When I say it can potentially be important, I'm only really talking about House elections where there will be some districts that will be decided by 1% or less. 

That said, who knows what may happen next with Israel - the war in Gaza hasn't exactly been predictable. 
 

2 hours ago, Economy said:

Id still be more afraid of living in EU closer to Russia than getting shot randomly at the store for no reason

 

I feel the former is much more likely to really negatively affect u in some way

Honestly, I think how safe you feel in Europe right now depends entirely on your geographic position. Don't get me wrong, I'm a Brit and very much concerned about what a Trump victory means for Russian aggression in the region. But I'm also very very aware that the direct risk to where I live would still be small if the war brings Nato in fully. 

[Economy 53,161]

18 minutes ago, Bronco said:

I tend to agree. 

When I say it can potentially be important, I'm only really talking about House elections where there will be some districts that will be decided by 1% or less. 

That said, who knows what may happen next with Israel - the war in Gaza hasn't exactly been predictable. 
 

Honestly, I think how safe you feel in Europe right now depends entirely on your geographic position. Don't get me wrong, I'm a Brit and very much concerned about what a Trump victory means for Russian aggression in the region. But I'm also very very aware that the direct risk to where I live would still be small if the war brings Nato in fully. 

Guess it depends what ur talking about. I did not just mean direct military attacks. Unless ur near the border like Poland I wouldnt worry either.

 

I mean really unpleasent war effects. For example Germany and Netherlands experienced a spike in energy costs and inflation from the war and they werent even directly involved in the war

 

Imagine every day impacts if the war went full out. Europe would face a more direct brunt than North America

 

Not saying US is a paradise for safety or peace of mind but im not so sure EU is exactly much of a better alternative either.

 

Theres alao been some rather violent protests in France and Italy for different economic and political reasons. 

 

Tbh if I had to leave Canada, I think rn id pick Oceania (NZ or Australia) over Europe

[AsleepOnTheCeiling 7,025]

3 hours ago, StarstruckIllusion said:

“Biden’s deficit with voters in that group is driven largely by those who did not vote in 2020. With that group excluded, voters between the ages of 18 and 34 in this poll divide 46% for Biden to 47% for Trump.”

Okay this gives me hope…

But I wonder why people who liked Trump didn’t vote in 2020. Like obv the Bernie or bust movement but why would those people say Trump is better when he’s obviously not? Did they think he was going to win or dont care about voting in general? Can we count on them to stay home again 

It doesn't specify why they didn't vote in 2020 and I have a strong feeling they're talking about 18-21 year old group that weren't old enough to vote then. 

[r4therupbeat 1,587]

that's what you get when you don't use a POC WOMAN that can lead and is not 89 years old as the main candidate

[Nemo 4,414]

16 hours ago, PartySick said:

Tl;dr - anyone who is already considering Biden won't be turned off by his Gaza stance, especially when he's doing a good job of playing both sides ("Israel has a right to defend itself but not a right to do all the sh*t they're doing" basically)

Not to sound too conspiratorial, but I feel like Gaza is almost a perfect wedge issue, designed to split the Democrats. It probably plays strongest with the people who are (usually) the most likely to vote.

[Shakmasda 258]

Cheez, why they don't just call Biden the devil and Trump the savior?

The world upside down, but then again, this is America.

[GAYHEMikey 8,240]

It’s so sad for the Americans. One candidate is an evil orange that will destroy the country but somehow has a huge fanbase and the other option is an oldie who can’t walk straight anymore and often speaks some mumbo jumbo (don’t get me wrong but this doesn’t look that good when you’re in the position of the worlds mightiest man) 

please go vote when the time has come. This is really serious and will inevitably affect us all.

[Ayesha Erotica 1,964]

On 4/28/2024 at 4:22 PM, DopeEnigma said:

I really do wonder why people focus on certain polls 6 months before an election. How about vote and let’s see what happens. 

yes, its too early to tell

before August anything can change