Joker FAD opening weekend: min $77 million expecting by The Quorum

[joannethenight 4,559]

This week, The Quorum began tracking its  follow-up, JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX. DEUX certainly has big shoes to fill. And given that Warner Bros. has already been sneaking out still images a year before release, it’s clear the studio considers the film a top priority.

While Warner Bros. has struggled with its DC properties, this superhero-adjacent property should be immune to the current superhero malaise. In fact, at The Quorum, we assigned DEUX to the Tentpole group rather than the DC/MCU group. That means DEUX sits alongside titles like TOP GUN: MAVERICK, BARBIE, and NO TIME TO DIE.

Can the sequel, which is scheduled on the same date as the first film, top the original and break the October record? Let’s look at the numbers.

 

The average opening for Tentpoles is $77M, roughly $20M less than the opening for the first JOKER. That means DEUX will have to overperform against the group average. Early tracking suggests that DEUX is well positioned to do that.

Let’s start with interest. Currently, interest in DEUX sits at 57% versus 50% for the group average at the same distance from release. Remarkably, DEUX ranks third among all films being tracked by The Quorum, behind DEADPOOL 3 and BEETLEJUICE 2. That’s quite an impressive start.

DEUX is also easily outpacing the group averages for the theater and fee metrics. These three metrics suggest that DEUX should easily top the average $77M opening for the group. Things go slightly sideways when we look at awareness. At 35%, awareness for DEUX is quite a bit lower than the group average of 41%.

How can that be? It seems strange, given that the studio has been aggressively dropping set photos over the past few months. In all likelihood, the title is suppressing awareness. Had the film been called JOKER 2, the score would likely have been higher. That shouldn’t be a problem as the campaign kicks in its first trailer. Over time, people will become accustomed to the title. That’s why we don’t see the low awareness as being a problem.

Also, low awareness and high interest is not a bad place to be. That means the people who know about the film want to see it. As awareness grows, the film should be well positioned to rival the first film’s opening.

 

https://thequorum.com/new-to-the-quorum-joker-folie-a-deux/

Edited January 5 by joannethenight

[joannethenight 4,559]

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Edited January 5 by joannethenight

[StarstruckIllusion 49,782]

Coming to be her next ASIB Moment ohhh I’m gagged 

[weed 71,249]

I'm so excited for the numbers lmao I am a numbers girly! Cannot wait. 

I know it is going to SLAY and SUCCEED and DOMINATE the box office and the awards <3 music AND the bling

[Modern Ecstasy2 2,182]

Gargar coming for world domination once again

Edited January 5 by Modern Ecstasy2

[ConnorFilm 7,013]

6 minutes ago, joannethenight said:

The first movie has $96M opening 

This will definitely get near or surpass that. I'm expecting at least $90M. 

[PMM 3,161]

thank god this movie is not handled by Gagas team

oop 

[pachinko 9,981]

It will pass $100M opening weekend. People are hungry to watch films like this. 

Edited January 5 by pachinko

[Reality 72,116]

For context, the first movie made $96 million domestic opening weekend. 

$77 million right now is great, especially considering there's been absolutely no marketing. I know many people still don't even know this movie exists, so once the marketing gets underway, this'll be a juggernaut. It also helps that besides this and Deadpool 3, no other major comic book movies are coming out this year. 

[Roughhouse Dandy 8,604]

That's more than I'm expecting tbh but I'm hopeful! Whatever kind of money it makes, I'm just THRILLED it exists. 

[androiduser 7,438]

the movie will due great, no doubt about it... BUT, their number one priority should be convincing the moviegoers that it's not a full-blown musical, and even downplay the musical elements as much as they can (unless the musical element is such a huge part of the whole production)

[Ladle Ghoulash 16,457]

5 minutes ago, androiduser said:

the movie will due great, no doubt about it... BUT, their number one priority should be convincing the moviegoers that it's not a full-blown musical, and even downplay the musical elements as much as they can (unless the musical element is such a huge part of the whole production)

Nah

[Starmie25 13,560]

15 minutes ago, androiduser said:

the movie will due great, no doubt about it... BUT, their number one priority should be convincing the moviegoers that it's not a full-blown musical, and even downplay the musical elements as much as they can (unless the musical element is such a huge part of the whole production)

Hard disagree. Embrace it!

 

Side note: many have stated its technically not a musical, but contains musical inspired moments.

[TEETHTEETH 1,519]

19 minutes ago, androiduser said:

the movie will due great, no doubt about it... BUT, their number one priority should be convincing the moviegoers that it's not a full-blown musical, and even downplay the musical elements as much as they can (unless the musical element is such a huge part of the whole production)

Much like what Mean Girls is doing with the new reboot

[Reality 72,116]

19 minutes ago, androiduser said:

the movie will due great, no doubt about it... BUT, their number one priority should be convincing the moviegoers that it's not a full-blown musical, and even downplay the musical elements as much as they can (unless the musical element is such a huge part of the whole production)

I can't tell if you're being serious or not  

If you are, I couldn't disagree more. First of all, I don't think the movie is a full-blown musical. There will be musical elements, but it's not going to be a High School Musical or Grease where people are just gonna bust out singing and dancing in ensembles. There will be musical moments throughout the film that will most likely emphasize and highlight Joker and Harley's delusions. 

Honestly, I'm hoping that they do market the musical elements more. It's a big part of what makes the movie's premise interesting in the first place. Now more than ever people want more than standard comic book fanfare. Many comic book films have become formulaic and generic and Joker 2 is really pushing the envelope in almost all aspects. It's best to market that and highlight what makes the movie different from other comic book movie properties. Plus, when you cast Lady Gaga in a musical, how are you not going to market that?