Ukraine ammends 2017 education law amid concerns regarding faltering support

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

22 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

1) (I believe it's the same case in Russia, where people are generally pro-war but would rather see others fight on their behalf).

2) the more extremist/hardcore/alt right people in both Russia and Ukraine are more suspectible to enroll and fight willingly in the war.... after the war, both Ukraine and Russia will have more moderate populations ...would in turn make people even more extremist/ alt-right??

3) And I believe the idea that the US is actually using UA for its benefits would be painful to realize, so many segments of the public would continue to subcounciously lie to themselves even though deep down they will be asking question and having doubts.

4) I believe Russia will continue to strike western Ukraine once in a while, so Ukraine will not be able to rebuild or become a functional state

5) but one of the movations of the US for its involvement is the drive to increase its weapons sells, and support for Ukraine is crucial in showing the world the weapons are good. There is a direct marketing facet of the war

6) In the meantime, I actually found an article by an international relations experts which 100% aligns with my opinion that the EU is attempting to sell Ukraine false hope - basically my thoughts from December, but I had no prior knowledge of this opinion piece 

1) I assume that the war will come to an end soon in 2025-2026 due to the fact that the number of Ukrainian soldiers is decreasing, but if Russian soldiers are also reserved and do not want to fight, it could drag on for a (much) long(er) time.

2) This is a very interesting hypothesis and point of view. I would like to go on a talk show with you and discuss this in a group.

I didn't even think about that. In fact, it is absolutely true that the number of hardcore nationalists is decreasing because of disastrous war fighting. This would lead to the population becoming less nationalistic or pro-war. I had always thought that the war in Russia initiated the normalization of willingness to wage war - the longer you don't wage war, the more peace normalizes. The more you wage war, the more normal and acceptable war becomes. I think that people who are returning have internalized that Russia is a belligerent country and they are passing this feeling on to the next generation. BUT these people can also realize that war is not cool at all on a real battlefield and see that they are not celebrated by the Ukrainians as heroes or liberators and question the meaning of the war. It could also be that the willingness to go to war to invade other countries from the Soviet Union decreases sharply after the war or already now in Russia.

When I think about history and use history to uncover regularities: After World War II, people wanted peace and were anti-war. This prevented a third world war. BUT after World War I it wasn't like that. After that people were even more radicalized and it ended in the next war. I conclude history can't tell us what the long-term effects of this will be.

3) (Some) Ukrainians are waking up right now - not all - and they painfully realize it. But Selenski is not allowing to think them this way and TV stations are not allowed to broadcoast this view. I bet many regret now that they supported Selenski. I think Taiwan is watching Ukraine and learning and developping strategies how to best avoid war and not become Ukraine 2.0.

Ukrainians will be for at least half a century very bitter at Russians.

They will be bitter at the West because they didn't help them enough.

Remaining Ukrianians will be bitter at other Ukrainians who fled.

No smiley or emoticon GagaDaily has or will have, will ever be able to accurately express the bitterness of Ukrainians.

4) Maybe Russia doesn't want that West Ukraine will become richer than Eastern Ukraine in the long-term  and this is why Russia is attacking Western Ukraine? Because when the Korean-style scenario comes true, there will be two parts of Ukraine that will be compared withc each other and Russia doesn't want to have the economically worse part.

5) That is absolutely right. Ukraine is being used as a weapons testing site and permamnent commercial ad. This is about the interests of the defense industry, which loves that it now has full orders. That's a tragedy.

6) Prof Naumescu has stolen your ideas, he has been lurking on you for a while now. At least Prof Naumesco should have credited you.

7) I heard that Russia supposedly sends its ethnic minorities disproportionately to war. So that after the war Russia would “be even more Slavic.” However, other sources show that the minorities have little interest in taking over Ukraine, as they do not feel culturally connected to Ukraine and do not want Russia to become bigger in the Slavic-big sense. Therefore the minorities do not go to war. Supposedly the Chechens are supposed to be there and take photos for Instagram, be far away from the front and then leave and not actually fight themselves. Do you know more about it?

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

@Okinawa

On the minorities part, from what I know, in early to middle 2022, Russia was actually pretty lax when it came to conscription, and people (mostly minorities) joined voluntarely because the military offered a well-paid job. After late 2022/2023 and what happened in Kharkiv, who knows what tactics Russia is using, it would not surprise me if some are probably indeed coerced into fighting. And locals from Donbas are and were subjected to conscription (as martial law in officially declared in Donbas unlike in the Russian Federation). Interestingly though, the casualities being skewed in such a manner means that Russia will have a slightly bigger demographic collapse, as Muslim minorities have a higher birth rate than ethnic Russians.

But let's not forget Ukraine is also under martial law and who knows what tactics it uses to attract people into the military - including minorities.

Checkens were involved in the war for real too - I remember seeing maps of their positions in eastern Ukraine and videos where they planted some flags in the conquered localities. 

In regards to the status of Romanian language in Ukraine, yesterday it announced that the school of an ethnically Romanian village near the Ukraine-Moldova border will officially replace the courses of ''Moldovan language'' with ''Romanian language'' (meaning nothing will change but the name). It's much but it's great news for the status of the minorities in Budjak. 

On the idea that Russia may try to start something in Odesa this year - I feel like Western media has the habit of acting like Russia is simultaneously about to conquer Europe and unequivocally lose the war to Ukraine, I call it Schrödinger Russia.  I personally feel like we won't be seeing anything happening on the frontlines this year, unless something BIG happens in Ukraine (like a coup) and Russia will opportunistically move in and conquer some eastern oblasts. 

But 2024 is going to have widespread elections across Europe, some countries will clearly change their tune. We also have the situation in the Middle East which looks worse than it did a few months ago - who knows that the region has in store for us and how it will affect Ukraine.

Takes like the following are comical because nobody in their sane minds believes Russia is about to swallow up 80& of Ukraine (unless Trump is reelected and decides to abandon Ukraine, which means  a complete collapse of Ukraine may be possibile?? Although I do agree with you in that Republicans will not change the line too much). Maybe this is a coping mechanism for Russians, to lie themselves they need to keep fighting because Biden is going to be out and they will eventually be given the greenlight to annexed the entire country.

Or it's just a way to saw distrust among Ukraine's western allies, which it's actually not hard to do - look at the bombardment of the Nazi museum in Lviv deemed ''an attack on history''.  Honestly this might have been Russia's great tactic so far - it made Poles and Ukrainians fight and eroded a further % of the support for Ukraine in Poland (just check the mood on this post).

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

18 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

1)Interestingly though, the casualities being skewed in such a manner means that Russia will have a slightly bigger demographic collapse, as Muslim minorities have a higher birth rate than ethnic Russians.

2) Map of Rusisan regions 

3)  will officially replace the courses of ''Moldovan language'' with ''Romanian language'' (meaning nothing will change but the name). It's not much but it's great news for the status of the minorities in Budjak. 

4) I feel like Western media has the habit of acting like Russia is simultaneously about to conquer Europe and unequivocally lose the war to Ukraine.

5) But 2024 is going to have widespread elections across Europe,

6) Maybe this is a coping mechanism for Russians, to lie themselves they need to keep fighting because Biden is going to be out and they will eventually be given the greenlight to annexed the entire country.

7) Or it's just a way to saw distrust among Ukraine's western allies, which it's actually not hard to do

8) Honestly this might have been Russia's great tactic so far - it made Poles and Ukrainians fight and eroded a further % of the support for Ukraine in Poland

1) Some people believe that the real reason for Russia's invasion of UKR is the pursuit of a larger share of its Slavic population. So that Russia wants to delay its Islamization by taking over UKR. I wrote that RU did not take over KAZ because of the good relations between China and Kazakhstan. But maybe RU didn't take KAZ because it would bring new problems with a new Muslim population resettled to the north and China wouldn't care as long as 80% of KAZ stayed KAZ?? What do you think about it?

2) We see that the Far East and the Caucasus are particularly affected. The Far East is Slavic and somewhat Buddhist, while the Caucasus is predominantly Muslim. But Muslim Tatarstan-Bashkortistan are not disproportionately affected (Volga region). So it's more of a reflection of wealth-poverty, as written in the comments. It will cause big problems for the Far East because it is very sparsely populated.

3) The change didn't cost any money and was cheap, so it was easy to be done

4) So true! On Monday they write Russia is about to lose. On Wedneday they write it is about to take over the Baltics. On Thrusday, they write Russia's army is in a bad shape. On Tuesday they write Europe's army is defenseless against Russia. The media deceives and fools us. Both cannot be true at the same time!

5) France will have 2027. Germany 2025. Poland already had last year. EU will have this year.  I think the (far-)right will come into power AFTER Ukraine will already have been admitted into EU b/c they are getting stronger but still will need more time to pass 50%. For example, we have seen in Poland that PiS got the most votes of all parties, but three other parties united to overvote PiS as PiS and the second right party together still was under 50%.

As for Prof Naumesco: Only 1 1/2 of the 5 reasons he mentions actually are EU-responsible reasons. 3 1/2 reasons are Moldovas/Trans/Rus/US-responsible.

I only said that EU will likely not to be blamed for MOL/UKR not getting into EU and that EU will say yes if conditions are met and that EU-wise, UKR/MOL are on their proper way.

If the blocking reason is to be found in MOL/UKR/RUSSIA, then the EU is not to be blamed, then it is the fault of MOL/UKR/RU.

Given the 3 1/2 reasons add up, it is somewhat likely and plausible that MOL/UKR will not make it into EU. But it won't be likely the fault of EU, imo.

For example, nothing in this world would have prevented Moldova from applying for EU membership already in year 2000. The pro-Russian-sympathy parties of Moldova are solely to be blamed it did so late.

6) Yes, I think these are (too optimistic) motivations reasons and both countries desperately look for something to motivate their armies, no matter how realistic it is. 

7) For sure they try to sow distrust, though not very effective. I mean, Leftover UKR will not accept to be ruled by its neighbor countries. They will suppose that they will be secretly annexed or bi-culturalized. This Russian projection of the future kinda sows distrust but I don't think it is very effective because effective distrust must have some real ground and hard facts and be realistic. Also it is not even fully logic judging by history. Germany was occupied by France/UK/US/Sovit union, but not by Belgium/Netherlands/Danmark/Czech Republic. Russia fails to explain why small Slovakia and Hungary are supposed to rule over UKR yet not US/UK/France/Germany/Belarus. Not even North korea was occupied by neghbor China (and NKs boder is much longer with China than with Russia. Only 16km)

8) Well, I think that there has been a POL/UKR dispute regardless of RU b/c in Poland  Russian media is not often read (actually, most people don't read or watch it at all). Poland is very anti-Russian media. It is not a victory of Russia but rather sth. that would have happened anyway b/c PL and UKR have historical tensions and PL doesn't like how UKR tells it national history. Russia is more successful in the West than in Poland.

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

@Okinawa Recent developments relevant to the Romania-Moldova-Ukraine situation:

A) the Republic of Moldova imposed vamal fees on exports from Transnistria(!!).  One would find them counter-intuitive given Chișinău wants to bring back Transnistria under its fold, but I actually think they're smart, as Tiraspol clearly will not want to pay extra money so they are incentivized to start doing concessions (Side note: I did tell you at one point that Transnistria doesn't want to be independent & that Transnistria is unlike Crimea and the other seccesionist republics; this is further proof Transnistria is meant to be a Russian Trojan Horse inside Moldova rather than a province which seeks genuine statehood).

B) The new EU transport corridors which include Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova will connect Bucharest with Chișinău and Odesa, Cernăuți and Lviv - I am not mad about these connections and I believe they are in fact needed, war or not. But the fact that they include links between Finland, Poland and.. Mariupol. The delusion is real!  (actually it's not delusion, but propaganda)

Spoiler

1) Islamization vs Slavicization of Russia: I think Kazahstan is historically and emotionally distinct from Ukraine, and frankly Russia cares less about it in part because it's a Muslim area, historically autonomous and not a bridge with Europe. Russia is inherently European-looking, because its demographic core lies in Europe and is part of European civilization (!!) So in a sense I believe pan-Slavism plays a role: Ukrainians are Slavs with similar culture and history with Russia, of course Russia would rather expand to include them rather than Kazahstan. Russia and China do have latent border disputes in the east, but Russia can work with China irrespective of those, because Western encrochment from the direction of Europe is 100x more important from Moscow view's.

3) I believe you fundamentally underestimate the cost paid so Ukraine will make slight changes to its minority policies. A tiny village changing its courses from ''Moldovan'' to Romanian is the result of an endless supply weapons, support for Ukraine to learn to use and use F16s, allowing Ukrainian grain through Romanian ports - which brings pressure and puts Romanian target under pressure from Russian drones, allowing NATO convoys to reach Ukraine etc - the help offered by Bucharest to Kyiv is immense, and according to docu leaks not far from the levels of support offered by Poland, Germany, UK. The fact that Ukraine promotes ''the Moldovan identity'' is a dispute as old as 1991, and it took all of these for Kyiv to start making some tiny concessions - there was a cost here.

4) 100% this  

7) You do have a point, I believe Netherlands, France, Germany etc are already looking at ways to divide Ukraine's oblasts between each other: they do not seek to annex them but you cannot tell me they don't desire to bring them in their economical spheres.  Honestly, Russia gives Poland/Hungary/Romania too much agency, but I guess it's useful to make Ukraine suspicios of potential ''incursions'' from the west; this is directly helping their goal of diverting Ukraine's attention.

Here I will make a parallel with Syria though, which after a decades long conflict has its territory occupied by various regional and global powers - if the Ukraine war will be similar to the Syrian war in the sense that the institutions will become weaker and if there will be a power vacuum, international players and even neighbours will probably act on Ukraine soil as they please - this is in fact Orban's phantasy: he wants Ukraine weak and to eventually allow Hungary to move into Transcarpathia (the ethnically Hungarian areas will not put up a fight to being with, but the Ukrainian ones clearly will - he probably wants to arrive at the point when they are took weak or tired by war to oppose Hungary). Orban is also big on Turanism - you know he envies Erdogan, who was able to expand Turkey in Cyprus, Syria, Iraq etc.

8) Absolutely! But smartass*s still claim Poland is influenced by Russian propaganda, because nowdays everything that doesn't fit the narrative is Russian propaganda; it's such an intelectually lazy tactic.

@Okinawa Something else - The issue of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine finally reached some Western attention- this is absolutely a conversation the EU should be having.

 

 

[Melech 9,900]

On 1/6/2024 at 11:25 PM, FfFfFfFF said:

Honestly this might have been Russia's great tactic so far - it made Poles and Ukrainians fight and eroded a further % of the support for Ukraine in Poland (just check the mood on this post).

almost everyone in poland supports ukraine  not reddit as a source for eroding support 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

On 1/8/2024 at 9:51 PM, FfFfFfFF said:

1) One would find them counter-intuitive given Chișinău wants to bring back Transnistria under its fold, but I actually think they're smart, as Tiraspol clearly will not want to pay extra money so they are incentivized to start doing concessions

2) But the fact that they include links between Finland, Poland and.. Mariupol.

 

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3)Russia is inherently European-looking

4)  A tiny village changing its courses from ''Moldovan'' to Romanian is the result of an endless supply weapons...there was a cost here.

5) but you cannot tell me they don't desire to bring them in their economical spheres.  6) Honestly, Russia gives Poland/Hungary/Romania too much agency

7) Here I will make a parallel with Syria though... if the Ukraine war will be similar to the Syrian war in the sense that the institutions will become weaker and if there will be a power vacuum, international players and even neighbours will probably act on Ukraine soil as they please - this is in fact Orban's phantasy: he wants Ukraine weak and to eventually allow Hungary to move into Transcarpathia

8) The issue of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine finally reached some Western attention- this is absolutely a conversation the EU should be having.

 

 

1) Moldova is finally beginning to rethink its approach to Transnistria. Better late than never, would Lana Del Ray say.   Economic pressure is the best means of making TRA compliant. It could also be as simple as closing the borders for 10 hours out of 24 hours a day to blackmail TRA. But MOL is still not doing enough and less than is in its power.

2) Interesting that there are no connections to the U.K. but all the way to Kiev. This somehow shows that UKR is already being considered in the projects and is being treated as an (almost) EU member.

3) I read that it is believed by some that RU took over eastern Ukraine because Putin assumes that at some point (a few decades) the Muslim part of the North Caucasus will no longer be able to be effectively controlled by Moscow. Chechnya is already like "its own country within Russia". And the gain of Eastern Ukraine therefore as a balance for the loss of North Caucasus in the future. Some people assume that the North Caucasus will secede because demographically it is gaining weight and Rest-Russia is losing weight, and NC and RU are actually extremely different. That is, the capture of the four oblasts is a response to and compensates for the future loss of the Caucasus. It's not so much that Russia is getting bigger, but rather that Russia won't be smaller in the long term (in 2070) than it was in 1995. I find it somehow convincing, because... how likely is it that the North Caucasus will remain Russian forever? Chechnya is already on the border with its own rules and law. Dagestan could follow. In doing so, Putin is achieving a kind of equilibrium. If I had to bet, I'm more inclined to say that Tatarstan and Bashkortistan will remain Russian in the more distant future but less inclined to say this for North Caucasus. The demographic shift in weight is making NC more and more important. It will then not be a “small, ignorable” area - it will have demands and look towards TURKEY and KAZ. At some point, I think, there could be a situation where NC is de jure recognized as RU but de facto independent like Northern Cyprus is de jure Cyprus but de facto Turkish. The aggression of the US/NATO is then only used as an excuse so that NC does not feel excluded or treated worse - something that unites the entire country.

4) I meant that it did not incur any costs for Ukraine, in the sense that the conversion from Moldovan to Romanian is practically free, i.e. only the words need to be changed. This is not like Romania asking the UKR to build a community center for the ROM community, which would cost €500,000. UKR hardly pays any money with the change, apart from perhaps reprinting books with ROM instead of MOL.

5) well, I say all the time that the EU/GER is trying to bring Ukraine into the EU - and thus automatically into its own economic sphere.

6) I agree. Poland, Hungary and Romania are just spectators. The Baltic states are very committed percentage-wise, but because they are so small, they are weak.

7) This is a very interesting point. In fact, I have read that there are global corporations that are simply operating in Syria without the consent of the government, as in Africa, too, extracting and stealing resources. Maybe the USA is also counting on this - then its large agricultural companies could exploit Ukraine without paying any taxes? Maybe this is a goal of the USA? And the EU doesn't want that because it wants an orderly system and stable conditions in Ukraine so that it can take over Ukraine economically independently and use EU protectionism to keep other countries out - but that only works if UKR Institutions also work. I think maybe UKR is already preparing for this, in a defensive sense: UKR is hoarding and stockpiling GOOD and STRONG weapons and not using them on the battlefield. Maybe it's stockpiling the weapons to defend Odessa, but maybe it's stockpiling the weapons so it can use them against Hungary if necessary (to deter Hungary as HUN only will come if UKR has no deterrence anymore)

IT'S AS IF HUNGARY WERE A KIND OF EAGLE OR HYENA LURKING IN THE DESERT FOR ITS STARVING PREY FROM THE FAR

8) This will probably be lost in the mass of headlines and new world conflicts and will be perceived by the EU as a side note.