Ukraine ammends 2017 education law amid concerns regarding faltering support

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

1 hour ago, LoliLux said:

@FfFfFfFF +++++++ BREAKING NEWS: UKRAINE AND MOLDOVA ARE ACCEPTED AND BOTH GIVEN A YES FOR EU ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS. BOTH NOW VERY LIKELY WILL BE EU-MEMBERS UNLESS RUSSIA OCCUPIES KIEV AND CHISINAU +++++++

Ironically, we were both right. Ukraine and Moldova were given a Yes. And you were right, that Orban didn't give a Yes. In fact, he really did not give a Yes and you only said he won't give a Yes, not that he will give a No.  He didn't give a No either. He simply abstained from voting and bashed the result afterwards. Orban is playing theater. However, it is not necessary to give a Yes, it only is necessary to not give a No to Ukraine. So, Germany successfully bought Orban's surrender of resistance and he de facto agreed to UKR becoming a member. This is a historic day.

Well, I think, that after UKR and MOL were promised to become EU members, they kinda deserve the promise to be fulfilled. The border exchange and crossing between RO and MOL will become easier.

You know how sincerely I wish for the Prut river to cease to be an EU border.  But while these are positive news, I need to counter your pesimism with a more pragmatic view and say that EU-Turkey ascension began in 2005. I feel like this is more of a sign of solidary/encouragement to Ukraine than a concrete commitment.

Also I cannot at Orban trying to pretend he was against, as if he didn't have the choice to stay in the room and just say NO.  The creativity of trying to create the impression he said NO while actually doing the opposite.

Spoiler

On your previous posts:

I am amazed by Germany losing 2 world wars only to become the economic hegemon and informal ruler of Europe (it had to die as a military power to be resurected as a political one- the EU is Germany's long-desired Reich).

WW2 was an anomaly in world conflicts, with Japan and Germany crushed completely - the winners then dictated their faith. Most conflicts end with mutual concession of both sides, skewed toward one party or the other. The Russo-Ukrainian war will NOT be like WW2 with Western armies taking over Moscow so people need to realize the West will be able to dictate Russia's faith. People need to realize Russia will have a say in what comes out of this war (sooner or later).

(Now even if Russia won't be defeated completely, I do have hope the war will weaken it enough to pull out of the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria). The way I follow this war is like a chess game trying to balance weakening Russia bad enough to leave Transnistria, but reforming Ukraine to accomodate the rights of its minorities. This is me trying to think it geopolitically:

 

 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

5 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

You know how sincerely I wish for the Prut river to cease to be an EU border.  But while these are positive news, I need to counter your pesimism with a more pragmatic view and say that EU-Turkey ascension began in 2005. I feel like this is more of a sign of solidary/encouragement to Ukraine than a concrete commitment.

Also I cannot at Orban trying to pretend he was against, as if he didn't have the choice to stay in the room and just say NO.  The creativity of trying to create the impression he said NO while actually doing the opposite.

  Hide contents

On your previous posts:

I am amazed by Germany losing 2 world wars only to become the economic hegemon and informal ruler of Europe (it had to die as a military power to be resurected as a political one- the EU is Germany's long-desired Reich).

WW2 was an anomaly in world conflicts, with Japan and Germany crushed completely - the winners then dictated their faith. Most conflicts end with mutual concession of both sides, skewed toward one party or the other. The Russo-Ukrainian war will NOT be like WW2 with Western armies taking over Moscow so people need to realize the West will be able to dictate Russia's faith. People need to realize Russia will have a say in what comes out of this war (sooner or later).

(Now even if Russia won't be defeated completely, I do have hope the war will weaken it enough to pull out of the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria). The way I follow this war is like a chess game trying to balance weakening Russia bad enough to leave Transnistria, but reforming Ukraine to accomodate the rights of its minorities. This is me trying to think it geopolitically:

 

You mean to counter my optimism; and that the West will not be able to dictate Russia's faith - @Okinawas brain does automatic sentence correction. (I have named myself after my favorite Japanese island by the way, so when you mention me, mention @Okinawa. Okinawa used to have the world's highest life expectancy until McDonald's stores were opened there, and it once was the nation of the Ryukyu Kingdom)

I have thought about the Turkish case, too. But there are really world's apart between Turkey and UKR and MOL:

The biggest difference is: UKR desperately wants into EU. And the EU is positive towards UKR now.

Turkey ceased to be enthusiastic about the EU. The EU was before 2005 positive towards Turkey's EU membership.

Turkey, itself, does not want to be in EU anymore for almost two decades. This is the biggest difference: The reason why TUR is not in EU, lies in TUR, not the EU.

While UKR wants to get into EU, it really wants to, and this is why it will become a member in future. The legal system between EU and Turkey is extremely different.

The rights of workers, women, free press, homosexuals in the EU are superior compared to the ones in Turkey and Turkey never showed any signs to desire to adopt these laws. Turkey doesn't want to make any improvements or appeasement towards gays. 

Turkey couldn't censor media anymore as easily as it does if it was an EU member. It couldn't censor books. The EU has a free market for goods and information. Turkey doesn't want this. Turkey voluntarily stopped wanting to get into EU. So I really think Turkey is not comprable to Ukraine at all.

Today is a day for optimism.

 

"Also I cannot at Orban trying to pretend he was against, as if he didn't have the choice to stay in the room and just say NO.  The creativity of trying to create the impression he said NO while actually doing the opposite."

Welcome to the Orban show, theatre at its best, next year at the Broadway, NYC, tickets almost sold out I thought exactly the same.

Who is he trying to fool? Only low-educated people will get fooled. Orban showed two faces. One face towards his conservative fans, and one face towards his EU colleagues. He showed two realities. Though, he stated in an interview, that he "didn't want to stop the rest of the EU, and that the others in the EU have ownership over the EU" and that he considers Hungary to be an outsider within the EU. He could have said No but Germany successfully blackmailed him and we should not overestimate Hungary's power, the economy of Hungary is according to wikipedia just as big as the economy of the city and state Berlin. Orban acted as if he had power. (He had and he had not. He had theoretical power.)

Out of curiosity: How many products in % in a local supermarket/store in Romania (food, ketchup, DIY market, technology, paraphernalia, books, furniture, kitchen, vacuum cleaner, washing machine, drugstore, skin creams, shower gel, etc.) are from German brands? 

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

9 hours ago, Okinawa said:

You mean to counter my optimism; and that the West will not be able to dictate Russia's faith - @Okinawas brain does automatic sentence correction. (I have named myself after my favorite Japanese island by the way, so when you mention me, mention @Okinawa. Okinawa used to have the world's highest life expectancy until McDonald's stores were opened there, and it once was the nation of the Ryukyu Kingdom)

@Okinawa But what will happen with (1) the ongoing war? There should either be peace and a new Russian invasion would be treated as an attack on the EU (and the EU will need to mobilize) or the EU will actively bring a warzone in. Will the clase about mutual defense would be simply ignored - as of now there is a hot war in Ukraine's Donetsk oblast. Of course Ukraine wants in because they are desperate to get direct NATO help (it's no secret UA desires to involve NATO), but no EU country actively wants that.

(2) What will happen if Ukraine makes nothing to adress the issue of minority rights? As of now they were given the signal they don't have to (let alone do a land swap or a border adjustment). The EU said to Serbia they will need to cede Kosovo to be allowed in (and support for EU membership used to be widespread). Now it's less than 50% - it will be the same with Ukraine. Either the EU would actively attempt to fight for Ukraine's 1991 borders like a full member state (which the EU doesn't want), either it will tell Ukraine to cede a territory to be allowed in (which Ukraine and the Unites States won't accept).

Romania began ascension talks in the year 2000 - they took 7 years with no war involved and no widespread oligarchy as exists in Ukraine. Accounting for the deeper problems in Ukraine, maybe we are looking at 20-30 years - let's just say hypotetically UA will be allowed in 2040. By then all governments in EU states will be replaced - what if new Orbans will arise in other member states? What if the war perception will change drastically in a decade's time (to further this, there likely won't be elections in Ukraine for the duratin of the war, will the EU simply not grow circumspect of Zelensky by this point)?

(The situation with Moldova is different because in the Republic of Moldova Transnistria is a frozen conflict).

9 hours ago, Okinawa said:

 

Out of curiosity: How many products in % in a local supermarket/store in Romania (food, ketchup, DIY market, technology, paraphernalia, books, furniture, kitchen, vacuum cleaner, washing machine, drugstore, skin creams, shower gel, etc.) are from German brands? 

 

The supermakets/stores themselves became German (manly Kaufland and Lidl).  I don't know about the products themselves, but local family-owned stores tend to be replaced by the big Germans chains even in the small towns. I can't find information about products themselves, but:

According to the analysis carried out by KeysFin experts, Germany maintains its status as the first trading partner, being at the same time the main target of Romania's exports, registering, in the last five years, an advance of over 54%, reaching the total amount of 15.6 billion euros in 2018.

Also, according to the data of the National Institute of Statistics, the value of trade between the two countries increased in 2018 by 52% compared to 2014 and by 10% compared to 2017, reaching over 32.5 billion euros.

Moreover, imports from Germany increased by 31% compared to 2014, reaching approximately 17 billion euros in 2018. Source

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

6 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

1. But what will happen with (1) the ongoing war?

2. Of course Ukraine wants in because they are desperate to get direct NATO help (it's no secret UA desires to involve NATO), but no EU country actively wants that.

3. What will happen if Ukraine makes nothing to adress the issue of minority rights? As of now they were given the signal they don't have to (let alone do a land swap or a border adjustment).

4. The EU said to Serbia they will need to cede Kosovo to be allowed in (and support for EU membership used to be widespread)... either it will tell Ukraine to cede a territory to be allowed in (which Ukraine and the Unites States won't accept).

5. let's just say hypotetically UA will be allowed in 2040. By then all governments in EU states will be replaced -

6. what if new Orbans will arise in other member states?

7. What if the war perception will change drastically in a decade's time?

8. to further this, there likely won't be elections in Ukraine for the duration of the war?

9. The situation with Moldova is different because in the Republic of Moldova Transnistria is a frozen conflict.

10. The supermakets/stores themselves became German (manly Kaufland and Lidl). 

In chronological order:

1. Either Putin will be tired and worn out by the war and accept the land bridge to Crimea as a triumph and the factual end of the war OR he will continue all the way to Odessa. If he continues all the way to Odessa, Ukraine's EU membership will become a long, long way off, perhaps not at all. But at the moment, a slowly frozen conflict seems to me to be the likely outcome, which the EU and Russia themselves may already be preparing for. In this likely case, Ukraine can and will become a EU member - Germany changed its mind from "maybe" to "yes", France doesn't oppose, and this matters a lot.

2. There will be meetings between the EU and Russia and in them the EU will signal to Russia that Russia has to choose between a war to Odessa or a frozen conflict of the four oblasts. If Russia opts for the frozen conflict, the EU would offer Russia a slow normalization of relations in return, which corresponds to both interests. This could be lucrative for RU to embrace. USA will not want it but they will have elections and their attention and priorities will shift away from Eastern Europe.

3. I agree with you that historically accrued minorities should have minority rights on their original lands, because they are not actually minorities, but the historical owners of the landscapes they inhabit. However, I observe the situation from a long-term historical perspective and look at what it was like in other countries and transfer the results to Ukraine, because what happened elsewhere is a kind of "repetition and historical regularity".

When I do this, I realize: Ukraine's behavior (unfortunately) corresponds to the European norm and will not upset the large EU states at all. Therefore the answer to your question is clear: nothing will happen. France itself has a long record of minority abuses: France wiped out German-speaking culture in Alsace and Lorraine. And it cannot be justified solely by the Second World War, because in fact Swiss German was spoken in Alsace-Lorraine and France had good relations with Switzerland, but it still wiped out Alemannic, Swiss German and Federal German in Alsace-Lorraine. Just as it wiped out the small Romance languages in southern France in favor of standard French, and likewise the culture of the Basques was wiped out by France. Spain and Italy would also like to wipe out Catalonia and South Tyrol. Germany doesn't really care what happened to the German-speaking minorities in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. So we have an indifferent Germany and a France that despises foreign languages at the top of the EU... surrounded by countries that have assimilated their minorities... In the long term, the Hungarian minority and the Romanian language in Ukraine will wither away and lose population through emigration or assimilation.

In my opinion, this is 98% safe and unavoidable. Wouldn't you say, that this is what is most likely going to happen? I wish it weren't so, but historically it will be because it has often been like that. There will be no more Hungarian/Romanian minorities from the historic community above 15,000 people for Hugarian and above 70,000 for Romanian in Ukraine in 2100, just as previous minorities in the 19th century in Western Europe were assimilated, just as the Ryukyu language no longer exists in Okinawa and has been replaced by Japanese.

When Ukraine joins the EU, it will become the 13th, 14th or 15th EU member that neglects minority rights. It is more the norm, than an anomaly. And this is why nothing will happen.

4. The EU has a double standard when it comes to Serbia-Kosovo and Cyprus... well, in this case, it will treat Ukraine like Cyprus: Ukraine without the four occupied oblasts and without the 1% of Mikolayiv Oblast will become EU member, while the four oblasts + the small snippet of Mikolayiv will continue to be recognized as Ukrainian, but not part of the EU and de facto Russian, like Northern Cyprus that is de jure not regonized but de facto Turkish. The Cyprus-solution will be applied to Ukraine.

5. I really believe Ukraine will become a member still in this decade or before 2031. You are right that it took longer for others, but UKR desperately wants it, it is speeding everything up, Ukraine is fast. The other nations did not show the same level of amibitions. I even think UKR will become a member before MOL, because MOL is so slow and passive. MOL can be happy because it benefited from UKR pressure on EU to accept them. MOL alone would never have achieved that.

6. There will be some new Orbans, yes. If they are in East Central Europe, Germany will continue to successfully blackmail them via withholding subsidies like it did with the real Orban. If they will be in Western Europe, they will not depend on subsidies and they might leave like the UK. There will be chaos and it will be dysfunctional. It already is dysfunctional. Hm, I don't know if Holland will leave the EU... Northwest Germany, Flanders and Holland are so economically dense and intertwined that a Hollandexit doesn't appear likely. UK always had an island mentality. Yes, there will be frustration, yet they won't stop UKR from becoming a member.

7. People will become indifferent towards the war and many conflicts in the world. This is psychologically to be expected. In 25 years, the future successor of Dennis maybe will make a topic on a pop star forum and it will be about "Surveys from Pew Research centre show that 40% of US-American youth think Ukraine started the Russian-Ukrainian war, 20% are unsure, 30% believe it was Russia, and 10% think it was Belarus".

8. Yes, I find it strange how Selensky recently praised the importance of democracy and repeated that word for like 50 times, yet he dropped the upcoming elections in Ukraine. Though, the elections will be simply hold again before UKR will become a member. Still some years left.

9. The UKR situation will become a frozen conflict, too, before UKR will become a member. EU is already judging on future terms. There may be still 1-3 years of war left, yet inevitably someday it will slow down and turn into a frozen ocnflict. UKR is running out of military men. Then it will be like Moldova. Maybe EU and Russia have already met behind closed doors and made a deal that UKR will become an EU member in exchange for the four oblast territories and Russia gave an OK or they intend so in future. They cannot say this in public just like they vehemently opposed to admit that Orban's not-No was bought with 10 mrd euros - at least @Okinawa thinks UKR will become an EU member in exchange for the territories and they won't admit it.

10. I liked when you said that the EU is a kind of "German economic empire project" because seeing how the RO market and other Eastern markets are ruled by German brands kinda proves it.

By the way, we need some more emoticons that can be used for geopolitical dicussions and are suitable, I often look at the emojis and smileys and think which one am I going to choose, so that the text doesn't appear so colourless,

 

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

On 12/15/2023 at 6:20 PM, Okinawa said:

In chronological order:

1. Either Putin will be tired and worn out by the war and accept the land bridge to Crimea as a triumph and the factual end of the war OR he will continue all the way to Odessa. If he continues all the way to Odessa, Ukraine's EU membership will become a long, long way off, perhaps not at all. But at the moment, a slowly frozen conflict seems to me to be the likely outcome, which the EU and Russia themselves may already be preparing for. In this likely case, Ukraine can and will become a EU member - Germany changed its mind from "maybe" to "yes", France doesn't oppose, and this matters a lot.

But even the slow frozen conflict scenario is highly unstable and sporadically translates into rockets fired into border villages, small scale assaults, ocassional strikes on Lviv, Kyiv etc (or drone attacks on Moscow, Rostov-on-Don etc). We have the counterexample of Transnistria where the stalemate proved peaceful, but crucially Ukraine and Russia do share a direct land border. Not even Cyprus and Turkey share a land border -and in Cyprus' case Turkey and Greece are both members of NATO. My argument basically is that the Ukraine-Russia border will ocasionally flare up because it's just so strategically (and emotionally) important for both, in the way Transnistria and North Cyprus are not.

And if the EU accepts Ukraine it, it will take a responsability for its defence which will always include the possibility for a hot war.

On 12/15/2023 at 6:20 PM, Okinawa said:

2. There will be meetings between the EU and Russia and in them the EU will signal to Russia that Russia has to choose between a war to Odessa or a frozen conflict of the four oblasts. If Russia opts for the frozen conflict, the EU would offer Russia a slow normalization of relations in return, which corresponds to both interests. This could be lucrative for RU to embrace. USA will not want it but they will have elections and their attention and priorities will shift away from Eastern Europe.

 

 

You have a point here, but by this point I don't see Ukraine accepting anything less than complete victory (a side effect of the war propaganda aimed to increase optimism in UA- by this point I fear there will be terror attacks across the EU if the EU will ask Ukraine to give up any territories, because people are just so emotionally invested in Ukraine :messga:). The Irish did it, the Basques did it etc. 

I hate the part of your post that touches upon ethnic assimilation. Why? Because is 100% spot on and true. The minorities in Ukraine will face extinction, and broadly speaking nobody will care. I am relieved everybody in this thread seems to be on the same page (with one predictable exception), but this site has a different sensibility when it comes to minority issues (still I am absolutely certain 99% of the 600 people who viewed this thread didn't know this was going on, who would have thought Ukraine really has a discriminatory legislation??). It hurts to see the minorities in Ukraine assimilated, but this is far from being a priority for the average Westener - in fact many will likely even advocate for it, as seen in this thread.

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

On 12/15/2023 at 6:20 PM, Okinawa said:

7. People will become indifferent towards the war and many conflicts in the world. This is psychologically to be expected. In 25 years, the future successor of Dennis maybe will make a topic on a pop star forum and it will be about "Surveys from Pew Research centre show that 40% of US-American youth think Ukraine started the Russian-Ukrainian war, 20% are unsure, 30% believe it was Russia, and 10% think it was Belarus".

 

Or they will be busy posting updates on the upcoming Taiwan war (Slava Taiwany!)  

On 12/15/2023 at 6:20 PM, Okinawa said:

9. The UKR situation will become a frozen conflict, too, before UKR will become a member. EU is already judging on future terms. There may be still 1-3 years of war left, yet inevitably someday it will slow down and turn into a frozen ocnflict. UKR is running out of military men. Then it will be like Moldova. Maybe EU and Russia have already met behind closed doors and made a deal that UKR will become an EU member in exchange for the four oblast territories and Russia gave an OK or they intend so in future. They cannot say this in public just like they vehemently opposed to admit that Orban's not-No was bought with 10 mrd euros - at least @Okinawa thinks UKR will become an EU member in exchange for the territories and they won't admit it.

With this I think you overestimate the amount of sovereignty the EU has in relation to the US.   I do believe Germany, France (and even Poland and Romania) have secrete channels where they keep in touch with Rusisa though (how I wish I hacked onto them to find some geopolitical scoops, like with the leaked documents we had this year). 

On 12/15/2023 at 6:20 PM, Okinawa said:

 

By the way, we need some more emoticons that can be used for geopolitical dicussions and are suitable, I often look at the emojis and smileys and think which one am I going to choose, so that the text doesn't appear so colourless,

I agree! I feel like Maia Sandu's expressions are the best to solve this problem: 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:20 AM, FfFfFfFF said:

1. let's just say hypotetically UA will be allowed in 2040. By then all governments in EU states will be replaced

21 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

2. But even the slow frozen conflict scenario is highly unstable and sporadically translates into rockets fired into border villages, small scale assaults, ocassional strikes on Lviv, Kyiv etc (or drone attacks on Moscow, Rostov-on-Don etc). . My argument basically is that the Ukraine-Russia border will ocasionally flare up

3. I don't see Ukraine accepting anything less than complete victory 

4. I fear there will be terror attacks across the EU if the EU will ask Ukraine to give up any territories

5. The minorities in Ukraine will face extinction, and broadly speaking nobody will care.

20 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

6. Or they will be busy posting updates on the upcoming Taiwan war (Slava Taiwany!)  

7. With this I think you overestimate the amount of sovereignty the EU has in relation to the US.   

8. I do believe Germany, France (and even Poland and Romania) have secrete channels where they keep in touch with Rusisa though (how I wish I hacked onto them to find some geopolitical scoops, like with the leaked documents we had this year). 

9. I agree! I feel like Maia Sandu's expressions are the best to solve this problem:

Here we go,

1. The majority of relevant EU leaders will either have been replaced by 2029-2031 or will not run again at their end of their term of office in 2029-2031 (making room free for others). The replacement is actually one reason for UKR's inclusion: the politicians can and will shift any problems onto the successor politicians, can blame each other, and then no one is to really blame. Politician B can say "Yes, but Ukraine was already promised/entered before I came into office" or politician A thinks "My term of office ends next year anyway, I don't really care what happens to the EU with Ukraine, I'm just interested how much pension I get." When France built a nuclear power plant near the Luxembourg border and LUX complained to the successor president, he said "I did not commission the nuclear power plant. I will not dismantle it either because it was not my fault. Blame my predecessor, not me"

2. At some point there will be elections in UKR again.

As a man in the UKR, would you vote for a politician who wants to sacrifice you, who wants to send you into military service and possibly to the front?

As a woman in the UKR, would you choose someone who ensures that your husband stays away in military service for a long time while you are left alone with your beauty and the great years pass by sadly?

Would you vote for someone who wants your country to be on a war economy or someone who is willing to compromise for economic progress?

If you were a native Russian speaker in Ukraine, which is a fifth of the population, would you vote for someone who fights the Russian language in a draconian way or rather someone who doesn't use Russian as a political weapon?

If you were Putin, would you want to experience a victory during your time in office and during your lifetime, or would you wage war for so long, with the risk that you wouldn't even see the end and wouldn't know whether you would be a hero or a tragedy go down in the history of your country?

There are reasons why Selensky does not allow elections. And they are not due to the alleged poverty of the country - after all, poor countries in Africa can also organize elections! Western media lie to us when they say Selensky is very popular and does not need elections to prove his popularity. He was. He is no more.

I am convinced that someone who is in favor of a ceasefire will come after Selensky and that Putin will then "transnistrify" the border. Russia wants Leftover-Ukraine to join the EU as a Trojan horse because it will make the EU more dysfunctional and will 'cause frustration. It doesn't want it to join NATO.

3. This is theatre. This is show.  This is what the UKR president must say.

Western Germany didn't recognize the surrender of former German territories in Poland for over 40 years, nevertheless there was a non-stop ceasefire after the war and it was a de facto real border. Likewise, the EU, Ukraine and Russia will agree on such a ceasfire. And if Russia nevertheless attacks, EU leaders will be creative finding reasons why UKR shall not get weapons. They can even simply make an extra rule that the ongoing RU-UKR conflict will not activate the defense clause and only apply to new wars (from countries other than Russia). This is what they target. If a UKR leader refuses to join EU because of such a barring-clause, he simply might not get (re-)elected and a new UKR leader will accept it. The EU is in a stronger position to formualte the criteria and UKR can accept or be left outside.

4. Psychologically, this is possible. On the other hand, there were no terror attacks in Germany after Unified Germany accepted the older German terriories in Poland to be gone. With every year that passes by, the people will forget more and more about the lost territories and it will become less important, until a new generation grows up that does not know a reality in which these parts were under UKR control, then it will be not a priority anymore. It is a problem that will solve itself.

5. Yes, I think we could even have foressen already in 1960 that " The minorities in Ukraine will face extinction, and broadly speaking nobody will care." in the 21st century, with the only difference that they will now turn Ukrainian-speaking instead Russian-speaking. These are hard and bitter words, though all true. - This is now what the native Russian-speaking minority (RSM) will face, too. It likely will not exist in 2130 in Leftover Ukraine anymore. What could be said for these minorties in 1960 already, now can be said for the native RSM.

6. Likely the US will weaponize Taiwan to provoke a Chinese attack on it to slow down Chinese economic rise to a world power. It will be interesting to see how China reacts.

7. I think the EU has little sovereignty, it is even being blackmailed easily by Turkey (A shame, actually ) the EU is the least sovereign empire in recent world history. I think just like you that EU is very much under US influence, just that US interests shift into Taiwan/Middle East, while UKR remains important for Europe, thus making it achievable to reach a permanent ceasefire.

8. Yeah, I wish I'd have these exclusive insights, too, especially because they show the real opinion and real state of affairs and not the fake theatre words for the voters that we daily read and hear on media. I do believe, their exchange on secrete channels is similair in basic essence to what we predict and assess.

9. I bet she was surprised when MOL got an okay!

 

 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

@FfFfFfFF I do believe this has to do with Merkel no longer being chancellor. Merkel always opposed Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and most of fromer Jugoslavia coming into EU because of the risks, the Russia warnings and/or because they do not meet legal minimum standards. Merkel also is from the CDU, a party mainly voted by people who pay taxes and seniors. Now Olaf Scholz is chancellor and he is from the SPD, a money redistribution party, he has no problem with paying all the subsidies to Ukraine because he wants higher taxes for Germans anyway and is more often voted by welfare recipients than Merkel was. This is probably the reason why Germany gave up its 16 year long opposition towards UKR membership - because Merkel no longer is there.

Merkel could not infinitely enlarge the EU because the burden of taxes would beocme at one point to high for her voters (it alreayd is among the world's highest) - this is a problem that Olaf Scholz doesn't have as he can milk all the tax payers to fulfill his vision of a superbig EU (and buying new members through subsidies as usual). 

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

@Okinawa I have more to say, but in the meantime some important news which came out recently:

1) Romania renounced its opposition to Ukraine dregding Bîstroe canal (meanwhile I was thinking maybe Ukraine can make some concessions as a thank you for all the help, but if anything Romania will be doing concessions because the war is an incredibly valuable currency for UA to get its way; eventually the minority rights dispute will be settled on Ukraine's terms -> more ethnic assimilation underway);

2) The Czech president hits the web with what he says once in a while and I generally agree with him. Now he is saying Russia is waiting for Trump to get in office so it can negotice with the US and actively make abstraction of EU's hypotetical input in peace negociations https://www.politico.eu/article/war-ukraine-turn-vladimir-putin-favor-2024-czech-president-petr-pavel/. The EU is the party most fitting to find a middle way favorable to Ukraine and not allow any side's maximilastic and unrealistic goals, but in the US it feels like the only options are either complete victory for Ukraine or complete surrendering to Russia.  And Putin waits for the second option, because why wouldn't he? 

3) (In light of what we discussed about Turkey previously) Ergodan weights in to give a dose of pesimism and says Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova will not be allowed in the EU (sidenote: I always find it wrong to say ''Moldova will not be allowed in the EU'', because more than half of Moldova by territory and population became part of the EU in 2007 )

 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

10 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

10) Romania renounced its opposition to Ukraine dregding Bîstroe canal

11)  Now he is saying Russia is waiting for Trump to get in office so it can negotice with the US

12)And Putin waits for the second option, because why wouldn't he? 

13) (D.D.: Turkish tweet about EU stalling Turkey)

14) ''Moldova will not be allowed in the EU'', because more than half of Moldova by territory and population became part of the EU in 2007 )

10) Romania should have simply tied the UKR accession talks (like Hungary) to it rejecting this canal. But it does nothing for its interests....

11) I don't know, everyone says Trump will accommodate Putin and do everything the way Putin wants. But behind Trump is the entire US arms industry and large economic interests that Trump wants to promote through further arms deliveries. I see reasons why Trump could be problematic there too. Trump promised to recognize Crimea as RU before 2017. He never did.

12) Putin's war goals are vague. When exactly is the UKR considered "defeated", when exactly is it "demilitarized" when it has as much army as Luxembourg or Romania; is it the entire Kherson Oblast or just the one east of the Dnipro? We don't know exactly.

13) Turkey is again behaving like a bully blaming his victim. It was Turkey that suspended the accession talks because it does not want to become liberal and the rule of law is miles away from Brussels. Currently, Turkey is hardcore nationalistic: just as Erdogan wants it to be. He has no interest in coming to the liberal EU, where parts of his voters would lose him and where liberal Turks  would have the right to make their own TV shows in Turkish from, for example, Austria or Holland, which would  have to be available in the entire EU under EU law and Turkey wouldn't be allowed to censor it (also it could do nevertheless and EU would probably do nothing about it  ... ) . Turkey also said: "TRT announced that it would not participate in the 2013 ESC contest on 14 December 2012, citing dissatisfaction with the rules of the competition. TRT specifically cited changes to the voting system, in which a jury was introduced and the televote's influence was decreased to 50%." But these are all fake reasons. Turkey also plays theater here. 

Show. The tweet is a theatre show. The real reason why Turkey doesn't take part in the ESC is because trans are allowed to perform there and men kiss and there's a lot of blingbling and sexyness. Just like that is the reason why it doesn't want to enter the EU because it feels too different.

14) I have the feeling that Ukraine is already indirectly an EU member, a semi member. Ukrainians can come to the West and work or receive welfare payments without any restrictions. Remember that although Romania was already a member of the EU in 2007, it only gained free movement of workers in 2014 - 14 years after 2000 - while Ukrainians can do so now. Every week I hear more Ukrainian/Russian from Ukrainians than Romanian and Serbo-Croatian here in Central Europe. I have even seen Ukrainian ladies who did plastic surgery and had wider lips than usually. They are actually more present than many other EU countries. And they are entitled with rights. In practice, they have almost as many rights here as Romanians, except that they are not economically in the same economic area and cannot sell goods.

And I believe because Ukraine indirectly already is a EU member, that this is also why it soon formally will become one (2028-2032), as Ukrainians already receive payments and the EU wants to have market access in exchange. And this is why Putin also wants UKR to be in the EU... because it already is in the EU without voting rights and Putin couldn't stop it, so he has the disadvantages without the advantages (dysfunctionality). This is why he wants UKR to join EU formally so it can block EU decisions soon with its veto right and 'cause more dysfunctionality.

Likely that's also why Moldova was accepted.... because as you said, it is already a semi-EU member. So a step to full membership isn't that big anymore.

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

1) Those who run this country are a joke - nothing more, nothing less. Yesterday they almost started to beat each other up in the Romanian Parlament.  The big debate now is the national budget, and how to make it work with less money (teachers are famously underpaid, but we unquestionably need $ for more American weapons). This is very frustating and I can't wait for the elections: even if the opposition will not win, domestic politics will need to be adapted because the social concerns will be too hard to ignore by that point (and trust me when I say people are fed up).

Side point to this: when it comes to doing diplomacy with East Slavic countries, if you ask for a tiny little thing you won't get your demand met even if it's justifiable. You will maybe get 10% of that (see the opening post). So if you want to make things work you should ask for something BIG (like the retrocedation of Romania's territories from Ukraine). Then UA will maybe say ''ok we are not doing that, but we make Romanian a protected education law''. This is just how it goes, if you want to get from A to B.

2) I thought the same about Trump (Unlike other people, I don't underestimate the war lobby that exists within the Republican Party). But at the same time, this became a bipartisan issue so I don't know: Trump will perhaps need to take actions to confort to his base's wishes.

3) Ukraine doesn't want to join the EU because of 'European values', but because they want help for their war effort. In fact the driving force as to why Ukraine wants to join a queer/ gay/ 'inclusive' political organization that is the EU  are conservative and nationalistic values (paradoxally). Once in the EU, they might vote in bloc with Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the other punching bag states - do not think Western capitals are oblivious to this. On the point that Ukraine is already a semi-member, well UA grains have access to the EU market and look how big of an issue that became (funny thing is UA themselves will not want to grow grain according to EU standards, because that would lead to less profit - sending unregulated grains and having them compete with local grains which farmers spent more money and more care on, only to obliterate local agriculture in Eastern and Central European countries is the better option). You are right that Ukrainian women are entitled with rights in the EU, but men are placed under martial law (how will the EU mitigate this is another big issue). The status-quo of Ukraine being a semi-member: neither out neither in is actually a lot better for the EU - I mentain my opinion that the decision of opening ascension talks was the result of EU trying to showcase solidarity so Ukraine can continue to fight, rather than a sincere desire to have them join the organization.

I think you make the wrong assumptions believing Ukrainians do not want to fight. A big % of Ukraine's population does want to fight and that is shown consistently in the pool (this is no surprise as they are, again, a ''blood first''/ ethno-nationalistic country). If the EU will pressure Ukraine to cede some territories and Zelensky agrees, he will be killed by other factions in Ukrainian politics (I am less harsh on Zelensky because I know Putin is not the only one who wants to assasinate him). Germans accepted defeat, but only because of the political and military circumstance at the end of WW2 - both Japan and Germany were conquered unconditionally. Compare this with Hungary which still eyes its part territories, because it was not utterly defeated with atomic bombs/ international trials (although the Romanian Army did occupy Budapest), or WW1 Germany (which was not defeated completely so it didn't abandon its imperialistic ambitions).

I was reading the Reddit thread on /Moldova about the propect of joining the EU the other day - I think it can be useful to check the thoughts of the locals - 

Edit: We also have the situation of Zelensky deciding to draft 500.000 men which is another facet of the discusison. 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

@FfFfFfFF I will reply to your answer on 3rd January or 4th January 2024 and you'll get a notification via the bell. @Okinawa is in a mess right now and preparing for Christmas, I managed to buy all presents within this week, literally within the last three minutes before booths and stores closed. Alpaca Wool Socks, Chocolate Melting Machine, Mandala Drawing Book, Silver Torch, Indish Tea and Gymnastics Ball, soon you will have a new owner.  We are celebrating Christmas on 24th already in Central Europe, one day before the anglophone world. I will abstain for a while from war and all the dreadful horrific news on TV and internet news sites, and try to enjoy vacation time. I read that you are Orthodox and in the Orthodox world Christmas is celebrated on 6th Janaury. I already wish you @FfFfFfFF, Strawberryblonde, and the entire community of TheTaylorTimes, umm- I mean GagaDaily -, EVERYONE who is reading this a Merry Christmas  and we will continue next year. I also have a little secret (it's not a fully unknown secret, though something we have not discussed yet that is imo important & future-telling)  to share on 3/4th January, so stay tuned! 

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

7 hours ago, Okinawa said:

 I also have a little secret (it's not a fully unknown secret, though something we have not discussed yet that is imo important & future-telling)  to share on 3/4th January, so stay tuned! 

I lowkey also want to go visit Ukraine in the meantime I can drop the bomb that I visited Ukraine (unlikely, though I am sure I will do it during at some point in 2024)  The Orthodox have different dates for celebrating Christmas (Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Antioch celebrate it on the 25th) - but it's understandable why one would assume 7th of January as that's when Jerusalem, Russia, Belarus & Serbia do it, Easter, however, is universally celebrated at the same time in Orthodox countries). I wish a very happy Christmas and I look forward to resume the conversation when the holidays are over! 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:32 AM, FfFfFfFF said:

1) I thought the same about Trump (Unlike other people, I don't underestimate the war lobby that exists within the Republican Party)

2) I maintain my opinion that the decision of opening ascension talks was the result of EU trying to showcase solidarity so Ukraine can continue to fight, rather than a sincere desire to have them join the organization.

3) I think you make the wrong assumptions believing Ukrainians do not want to fight. A big % of Ukraine's population does want to fight and that is shown consistently in the pool (this is no surprise as they are, again, a ''blood first''/ ethno-nationalistic country).

4) If the EU will pressure Ukraine to cede some territories and Zelensky agrees, he will be killed by other factions in Ukrainian politics

5) Germans accepted defeat, but only because of the political and military circumstance at the end of WW2 - both Japan and Germany were conquered unconditionally.

6) I was reading the Reddit thread on /Moldova about the propect of joining the EU the other day - I think it can be useful to check the thoughts of the locals - Poll: Moldova joining EU in 5 years?

7) Edit: We also have the situation of Zelensky deciding to draft 500.000 men which is another facet of the discusison. 

Happy New Year,

here we go,

1) Trump is known for making deals - he will want something big in return for letting Putin take over Ukraine, Putin will have to make an offer and if the offer is bad, Trump might send weapons that the arms industry wants to test on a real battlefield.

2) I think our predictions are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

The EU is using Ukraine (on behalf of the US-UK) as cannon fodder to weaken Russia. At some point the goal will be achieved, it has already been partially achieved, and Ukraine will then be used in a different way by the EU, and no longer in such a way that it primarily benefits the US-UK. The EU plans to absorb  UKR and then use it as a workshop: factories will be outsourced to UKR and labor costs will be cheap in UKR in order to be able to keep up with Asia. France and Germany are bitter and pressed that US companies are buying up Ukraine ...They want UKR to join EU, so that they can easily buy up UKR themselves and use EU protectionist measure to barricade up UKR from US. EU sees US as a rival and master at the same time, with certain parties being under direct neo-colonial US control. This will then be less geopolitical and more geoeconomic. Due to its poverty, UKR will also be very dependent on the EU and its subsidies and will have to submit to political decisions under the threat of freezing subsidies. The richer an EU country is, the harder it is for Germany to buy it. It couldn't buy UK. But it can now buy Moldova, Ukraine and Bosnia and soon N. Macedonia. In the long term, the EU plans to admit all of former Yugoslavia and Eastern Europe (except Russia), including Ukraine.

3) I think we should look at the Ukrainians' motivation and willingness to continue the war and also look at the polls in question.
Indeed, the majority of Ukrainians want to continue the war (60%).
But it makes an enormous difference whether we ask "Do YOU PERSONALLLY ( ) want to go to war against Russia or continue fighting yourself?" or “Do you want your country to continue the war?”.
The 60% approval is only for “Do you want your country to continue the war?”

https://news.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspx

The majority of Ukrainians are ready to sacrifice other Ukrainians in war... But the majority of Ukrainians do not want to sacrifice themselves. Likewise in Russia, the majority support Putin's actions, but they do not want to be used themselves. You might be right that the war might continue for a much longer time which will delay UKR accession by more than 15 years if Putin's (new) soldiers (will) have no motivation (either) to fight and Russia won't solve it somehow.

We must also remember: there is no longer freedom of expression in Ukraine - Ukrainians must approve of Selenky's program... Ukrainians must go to war if they are called up. Anyone who expresses criticism of the Ukrainian goal of regaining territory might be punished. The Gallup Poll is somewhat skewed.

For example, 91% of the 60% say that Ukraine really needs to take back everything, including Crimea, and keep fighting. How do we know this saying? That's exactly the same as what Selensky says. And they say this because they are worried about being punished for having a different opinion. It is absolutely unrealistic that Ukraine will take back Crimea.

But it's easy to say such sentences when one is not actually fighting, but just watching, just as Selensky himself isn't fighting.

The Ukrainians' willingness to fight war themselves was high in 2022, then decreased and is falling rapidly.

4&5) Well, there were two Germany's before 1990. East Germany accepted early the new Polish-German border, though under pressure of the Soviet Union. Since West Germany didn't have an actual border with Poland, the DDR-PL border became a de facto border regardless of what West Germany thought. West Germany didn't accept the border for over 40 years and this scenario, I think, Ukraine will face it, too. It is not about Ukraine giving up officially its territories - it will be, imo, a Cyprus/West Germany/Korea-style solution, where there is a de facto border that is not recognized by Ukraine. Such a scenario is more likely to be accepted by the UKR population b/c they don't have contrl over the territories anyway. The predecessor of the EU was formed and founded by six nations, including West Germany, and had controversial unregonized official borders with constant threat of WWIII in West/Eastberlin and it didn't hamper the EU integration process. At one point, the WWIII threat will normalize and Eastern Leftover Ukraine will become the new West/Berlin, a zone where WWIII could start but somehow unlikely, imo.  (History will repeat itself) Europe already was living in such a situation and this is why I think it is not an insurmountable task for it to do again.

6) 5 years could be too fast, though not impossible. 6-12 years are more realistic.

7) Of the 31%, see point 3),  who want peace negotiations or ceasefires, there are larger proportions of realists or people who have to fight themselves and see how tedious it is.

The motivation to take part in the war (or to continue fighting) decreases primarily because of the following reasons for demotivation:

1: Russia is stronger. The fighters know that

2: Ukrainians could instead receive welfare benefits in Germany instead of being in a war

3: They see that their colleagues have fled and feel  either "stupid" for not having fled themselves or angry at the others

4: they realize how slow the war aid and arms deliveries from the West are...they are simply insufficient for victory

And then there is another super demotivating reason:
More and more Ukrainians are asking themselves: "What am I actually fighting for here? Why should I fight here?" "Even if Ukraine wins the war (unrealistic, but let's assume it hypothetically), then it will take at least 25-35 years until Ukraine reaches a standard of living like Romania today." "Then my life will almost be over and it's still far from being really rich. It's not worth it. Then I'd rather move to Germany in 2024 and immediately have a life that's twice as good as in Romania in a material sense, regardless of whether whether I can find a job or not without having to wait 25-35 years for an acceptable standard of living." Don't you think that a significat number of Ukrainians thinks this way?

It is becoming increasingly difficult to find suitable fighters for Selensky. The fact that the war continues at all is based solely on a perverse logic of sacrificing people for activities that the elite would not fight themselves.

 

__________________________

__________________________

Now, here comes the moment the world has been waiting for :

My "secret information":
Some insiders believe that Putin may be holding off on intensifying warfare at this time in order to lose as little popularity as possible before his March 2024 elections. The four months after his re-election will be interesting: it is assumed that Putin will EITHER call a super-mobilization after his election and plan preparations for the capture of Odessa, which will be intercepted by Western secret services, OR he will leave the current course of the war as it is and make do with the land bridge to Crimea and not take any more territory. If he doesn't make any further preparations within the four months after March, it means that the course of the war will remain as it is, because the capture of Odessa would take a long time and he would start it as soon as possible after his re-election in order to avoid that at his next re-election in 2030 the war will not be over. Or he will no longer compete in 2030 and would like to have emerged as the winner by then. This makes the months after March 2024 so interesting and crucial.

 

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,732]

@Okinawa Happy New Year!  (btw, new stats came out and in 2023 Moldova's wine exports into the EU increased, while exports to CSI countries decreased, and most exports found their way into Romania -1st place- and Belarus -second place-).

3) I do tend to agree to this point, after many videos of Ukrainian men trying to resist draft following the news that Zelensky is conscripting 500.000 men, it doesn't seem like support of the war and personal sacrifice is that universal in the country (I believe it's the same case in Russia, where people are generally pro-war but would rather see others fight on their behalf). Now, I would love for the most radical pro-Ukrainian supporters which are cronically online to be told to either shut up or be thrown in the trenches, if they are so personally involved.  And so the online space will in turn clear up for more resonable discussions, because the extremists would be busy on the frontlines - but of course, everybody is brave(r) behind the keyboard.

In connection to this point, something I think about is the effect of the war on extremism: the more extremist/hardcore/alt right people in both Russia and Ukraine are more suspectible to enroll and fight willingly in the war. They are also more suspectible to die in the process - could in be the case on some level after the war, both Ukraine and Russia will have more moderate populations because of ''natural selection'' or other factors (such as resentment, dehumanization, propaganda etc) would in turn make people even more extremist/ alt-right?? I believe on the short term, wars can make populations more moderate, but on the longer term more hardcore. 

I agree with your assessments overall, but one thing that I believe you underestimate is the amount of propaganda funneled into Ukraine by the US. Ukrainians are taught to hate and despise Russia to their core, and I believe it will work - let's nota also forget Ukraine is still subjected to attacks by Russia which are naturally going to enrage and radicalize the population. So while support for going to the frontline may not be that common among the Ukrainian public, there is still a will to fight (at least for now). And I believe the idea that the US is actually using UA for its benefits would be painful to realize, so many segments of the public would continue to subcounciously lie to themselves even though deep down they will be asking question and having doubts.

I believe Russia will continue to strike western Ukraine once in a while, so Ukraine will not be able to rebuild or become a functional state - Putin's logic is, imo: if Russia cannot have Ukraine, nobody else will. Russia will make it clear European companies would not be welcome to move in Ukraine, because Russia will simply bomb Ukraine's western cities to render Ukraine not a good place to invest.

Something else I though about is how the war is an important arena for America's weapons sells: the US wants its weapons to be proven to be effective so more countries will buy them. I believe this could be overlooked in the broader picture, but one of the movations of the US for its involvement is the drive to increase its weapons sells, and support for Ukraine is crucial in showing the world the weapons are good. There is a direct marketing facet of the war that I think I overlooked in the past (the war is basically free advertisment for the weapons markets of Russia and the US). 

2) In the meantime, I actually found an article by an international relations experts which 100% aligns with my opinion that the EU is attempting to sell Ukraine false hope (https://infoprut.ro/114249-semnal-din-romania-pentru-a-avea-sperante-la-aderare-pana-in-2030-r-moldova-va-trebui-sa-se-decupleze-de-ucraina.html). The main idea is that the beginning of the ascension talks are way to boost morale - basically my thoughts from December, but I had no prior knowledge of this opinion piece 

Spoiler

Valentin Naumescu, expert in international relations from Romania, believes that the decision to open EU accession negotiations with the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine is " one of encouragement, of morale" , for the complicated political times that could come.

The professor noted in this context that the actual accession of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova " is still far and uncertain". 

Thus, he explained in an extensive analysis that the Republic of Moldova will have to detach itself from Ukraine in the coming years and fulfill five other essential conditions in order to be able to join the EU.

" In order to have hopes of joining by 2030, the Republic of Moldova will have to detach itself from Ukraine in the coming years, and I believe that this will be achieved anyway, after the individual evaluations of the candidate states begin. Even decoupled from Ukraine, the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the EU by the end of this decade will depend on a combination of five factors:

1. The reforms and especially the political and electoral developments in the Republic of Moldova , with an emphasis on the (mandatory) regaining of the presidential elections in 2024 and the parliamentary elections in 2025 by the current leadership. Any change of direction at the level of the Presidency, the pro-European majority in Parliament and the Government would result in the de facto freezing of negotiations with the European Commission . Let's remember that Serbia has been a candidate state since 2012 and started accession negotiations 10 years ago, being, with a duplicitous political leadership in Belgrade, with many pro-Russian accents, very far from joining the EU... If in terms of re-election Maia Sandu's chances in November are high (although she will need the additional support of a second political force in the second round), for the parliamentary elections in 2025 the problem of the pro-European majority is major, given that the ruling party PAS has reached at only 25%.

2. Political and electoral developments in the EU and maintaining the pro-enlargement option at the level of the entire Union . The European elections from June 6-9, 2024, but also the elections in the member states between 2024-2027, are to be followed, which are decisive. Nationalist political forces are growing almost everywhere and this will be reflected in the structure of the future European Parliament. Let's also see the orientation of the future governments in the Netherlands and Austria, see the coalition in Germany after the 2025 elections, or who wins the presidential elections in France in 2027, etc. Not to mention Hungary and Slovakia. In order for the process to be completed successfully, as we know,  unanimity is needed,  including the ratification  of an eventual Accession Treaty. Hard, very hard to imagine such unanimity at the moment. At this point, it remains to be clarified what reforms France, Germany, Holland, etc. want. (the countries of the central European core) to adopt in the organization and functioning of the EU before the accession of new member states and  whether  or not these reforms require the revision of the Treaty of Lisbon . I have serious doubts that the revision of the TEU will be possible on the horizon of this decade, but the discussion requires a separate substantial analysis.

3. Resolving the problem of Transnistria , in one way or another, so that there are no longer any legal ambiguities regarding the territory over which Chisinau exercises its full sovereignty and in which European legislation will be applied. It is clear that territories occupied by the Russian army  (applicable to Ukraine and Georgia alike) cannot join the EU. Very interesting and debatable is President Maia Sandu's suggestion regarding a possible  "accession in two steps"  (according to the model of the accession of Cyprus in 2004), first with the territory between the Prut and Dniester, then (who knows when and if...) with Transnistria. It would be an elegant and discreet way to get rid of Transnistria, basically. But we have no indication yet whether the proposed solution is politically and legally feasible or not. There would also be  the option of the peaceful economic reintegration of Transnistria , with the spontaneous disappearance of the separatist regime from Tiraspol (very unlikely), or  the military option  proposed by Kiev to Chisinau, rejected by President Maia Sandu.

4. The outcome of the war in Ukraine. The current war still represents a major, existential threat to the Republic of Moldova, and until we see where the Russian army will stop, no decisions can be made regarding EU enlargement.

5. Great power relations after the end of the war in Ukraine , including the package of understandings and international arrangements (global and regional) that will govern the post-war political order, with a focus on relations between the US, the EU, Germany, France, Russia and China. In particular,  the orientation of the new US administration, starting in January 2025, and the type of bilateral relationship that the re-elected US President (regardless of whether it will be Joe Biden or Donald Trump, we are talking about a re-elected president) will be of particular importance. wants to have it with Moscow, in the perspective of the great strategic confrontation for global supremacy between the USA and China, which is inevitable", Valentin Naumescu pointed out.

According to the professor, these are the five decisive aspects, each of them inescapable, " on which will depend the prospects of the Republic of Moldova's accession to the EU, necessarily disconnected from Ukraine, until 2030, in the happiest, shortest and most optimistic integration scenario" . 

" The chances are slim for the 'full alignment of the stars', but they do exist. Even without the guarantee of full final accession, the pre- accession period, which has already begun, will be a very beneficial, prolific and fruitful one for the Republic of Moldova, a period with opportunities for reforms on all levels and access to important funds, a period that will certainly transform the small republic across the Prut for good, just as Romania's pre-accession period (2000-2006) was probably the most glorious period in our history, with the most accelerated reforms and the fastest development", he also noted Valentin Naumescu.