Moldova will try to take over Transnistria, says Russian propaganda outlet

[FfFfFfFF 58,113]

The most influential channel of Russian propaganda recently accused the government of Moldova of trying to take over Transnistria, citing visits of Moldovan delegates in Ukraine (??) and using an image of joint Romania-Moldova military exercises as a backdrop. The greater context is that Russian influence in Moldova is diminishing and the Republic of Moldova naturally pivots to its its neighbor Romania to which is has many cultural and historical ties and a shared language and ethnicity.

While an Ukrainian MP proposed a joint invasion of Transnistria by Ukraine and Romania+Moldova, the Republic of Moldova pushes for a peaceful solution of the Transnistrian conflict and repeteadly asked Russia to withdraw from Moldova's territory - most recently, last week. In reality, Russia is losing its grip on Transnistria and fears that Transnistria will reorient itself to Chișinău and Bucharest (without any shots being fired).

Might be interested - @LoliLux (adding the mention so it won't seem I talk alone bc I know nobody else cares  ).

[Inactive 698]

Russia has lost its mind. I’ve heard from someone I know there that they’re detaining random young men and forcing them into the military to fight literally the same day, they’ve started arresting gay people, and now they’re going after any bordering country that tries to associate itself with the West: Ukraine now Moldova. Many are against it but are silent out of fear, look how many high levels officials in Russia have died by falling out of building since the invasion of Ukraine, and the militia leader who went against Putin and his plane suddenly went down. Everyone knows what’s going on. May Putin’s tyrannical blood thirsty ways be his downfall. He fired his staff because of fear of poisoning, and rumor has it he’s had cancer which is impacting his cognitive and emotional state. All I know is his power will soon fall.

[PoshLife 17,019]

inshallah

[Ayesha Erotica 1,924]

Some time ago, the same sources said that Poland would take over western Ukraine, several times, although none of the major Polish politicians had ever said such a thing. They say this because they believe that this will motivate Western Ukraine to approach Russia to seek Russia's help against Poland's annexation plans (so that it doesn't look like everything always comes from RU first), but that logic is absurd and only makes sense in an old world where Slavic people outside of Russia are believed to want to be freed by Russia, and nowhere except Russia is that currently believed - this has no longer been the case since the Donbass. Now the same with Transnistria. RU probably wants TRA to ask RU for help and is "motivating" it with these reports, but we have seen that actually Moldova is not having any such plans. At least Moldova doesn't have the courage to enforce taking over TRA at this moment. And Moldova will not do anything that could provoke Russia. But the longer MOL waits, the nearer RU might come. So both options (taking over and not doing it are associated with risks that are uncalculable in the long-term).

[FfFfFfFF 58,113]

9 hours ago, LilMissThang said:

Russia has lost its mind. 

It did!

However, on the point about forcing men into military, it needs to be acknowledged that Ukraine is probably worse because all fighting age men in Ukraine (Ukrainians and ethnic minorities alike) are under martial law and cannot leave the country (Russia itself technically has no martial law - martial law only affects the regions annexed from Ukraine). Many of said men try to escape draft by crossing the border illegally and many are found dead afterwards. It's always important to not mystify or romanticize things and see things for what they are - I also used the term men because for all we know many of these people might identify as trans women but are treated as male by the Ukrainian authorities (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-9-2022-002018_EN.html) - martial law in Ukraine affects both men who identify as men and trans women.

[Inactive 698]

1 hour ago, FfFfFfFF said:

However, on the point about forcing men into military, it needs to be acknowledged that Ukraine is probably worse because all fighting age men in Ukraine (Ukrainians and ethnic minorities alike) are under martial law and cannot leave the country (Russia itself technically has no martial law - martial law only affects the regions annexed from Ukraine).

Oh yeah, it’s bad for the Ukrainians for sure. But I do think it’s Russia’s doing to begin with by invading Ukraine and leading to the senseless violence on both sides. The Ukrainians would not be made to fight and die in the war if not and the only other option is to give control to Russia. I brought up the point about Russia increasing its military by like 100,000+ I believe and rounding up soldiers without notice because someone I know said it’s just happened where they live and Russian people are upset that the government is doing this. The only way for this to end is for Russia to withdraw form Ukraine.

[Ayesha Erotica 1,924]

5 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

However, on the point about forcing men into military, it needs to be acknowledged that Ukraine is probably worse because all fighting age men in Ukraine (Ukrainians and ethnic minorities alike) are under martial law and cannot leave the country (Russia itself technically has no martial law

Recruitment has negative consequences for demographic development in both countries. Russia had a stagnant population before the war, which would steadily decline from the 2030s onwards. Ukraine had a rapidly declining population long before that. Now many young people, including highly qualified people, have fled RU towards Kazakhstan, Georgia, and sometimes elsewhere. I don't know if we can say whether martial law doesn't apply in RU or not... formally not, but people wouldn't flee if it didn't exist, right? One could say it doesn't exist, and they flee because they fear it might exist afterwards. The social impact would then be almost the same as if it actually already existed. I'd say it is a semi-martial law, which means there is somewhat a probability that some men who didn't eexpect it are drawn into the war against their will, but statistically the chances are still higher for the individual that this doesn't happen. As the RU population declines, RU is even more inclined to annex the territories and incorporate the populations to maintain the number at 144-146 million.

About trans men: Indeed, this isn't fair. It seems that biological women enjoy more rights than men. They have the same rights as men plus the right to not go into war, while men don't have this right. So women have more rights than men.

 

I remember when Macron proposed UKR to hand out its eastern territories to RU in exchange for peace. I think Macron said that b/c he doesn't want to pay full agricultural subsidies (as they are territoriy-dependent, the smaller a country, the less subsidies) for UKR once it will in the EU.

[FfFfFfFF 58,113]

9 hours ago, LilMissThang said:

I brought up the point about Russia increasing its military by like 100,000+ I believe and rounding up soldiers without notice because someone I know said it’s just happened where they live and Russian people are upset that the government is doing this.

Abolutely yes! But there are many things the Ukrainian government can do differently, for instance it can make sexual and ethnic minorities excepted from the draft/ martial law (unfortunately this won't happen because the government isn't particularely fond of either of them and it will argue men will make use of the exception). As of now, all men fleeing the war for ideological, political, religious or identity reasons are treated as deserters and thrown in jail/ to war- Moscow started the war, but how this is handled it's also Kyiv responsibility. Outside of this issue, there are many areas where Ukraine acted less than stellar (agressive rethoric against its biggest regional ally Poland, the grain issue, going forward with a discriminatory education law, using the cover of the war to dredge the Danube against bilateral conventions with Romania - I believe to have a honest discussion about Russia x Ukraine these are facts that need to be spoken clearly and heard so we don't idealize or project romantic feelings on a two party conflict).

9 hours ago, LilMissThang said:

The only way for this to end is for Russia to withdraw form Ukraine.

When it comes to this, there are also ways around it. After the war is over Ukraine made it clear that Russians will not have a place in it, yet many areas in Donbas and Crimea are Russian majority. So some kind of ethnic cleansing will need to take place which poses many issues even from the West's perspective (this is assuming Ukraine's desired scenario will take place, but in reality the most likely scenario is a frozen conflict with squimishes around border villages, like we had during the entirety of 2023).

[Ayesha Erotica 1,924]

11 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

(this is assuming Ukraine's desired scenario will take place, but in reality the most likely scenario is a frozen conflict with squimishes around border villages, like we had during the entirety of 2023).

The frozen conflict is the most likely one because:

- it delays any possible NATO membership, and NATO doesn't want Ukraine in it because then it cannot use UKR anymore to weaken RU

- likewise it delays any possible EU membership, and several EU states don't want UKR in it

- RU is stronger than UKR

- USA won't give UKR too much weapons b/c it is sockpiling them for a war with china over Taiwan or the Middle East -> so UKR cannot retake its old terrritory

- it already is the de facto new reality for over 15 months, little changes occured

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,113]

21 hours ago, LoliLux said:

Some time ago, the same sources said that Poland would take over western Ukraine, several times, although none of the major Polish politicians had ever said such a thing. They say this because they believe that this will motivate Western Ukraine to approach Russia to seek Russia's help against Poland's annexation plans (so that it doesn't look like everything always comes from RU first)

By this point I suspect Russia knows Ukraine will hate anything Russian for eternity, so by spreading rumors about Poland wanting to retake its lost lands, Russia wanted to make Kyiv more reserved about the propect of the two nations acting more like a holistic integrated force against RU (and setting up the conditions for a Polish-led Intermarium, as it seemed to be the case). But in the meantime Poland-Ukraine relations deteriorated so much that these coordinates wholly changed. Poland will no longer push the West to do more for Ukraine because many in Poland feel alienated by Ukraine's actions (I would be too). Plus the Ukraine skeptic Konfederacja party is gaining more influence forcing mainstream parties to adapt ''a more Poland first attitude''.

2023 is ending on a completely different note than 2022 with the grain blockade in Poland and Slovakia, Slovakia joining Hungary and no longer allowing arm exports to Ukraine etc, Zelensky's visit to Romania overshadowed by an MP bringing up the issue of the Romanian minority in Ukraine etc

Imo for 2024 the best case scenario is a prolonged stalemate (with the same frontlines that are in place since October 2022), worst case scenario is Russia will take more oblasts because Western support for Ukraine will invariably diminish, the latent issues between Ukraine and its neighbours remerge and the war will be harder to sell to people concerned about their own nations' issues and their own living conditions.

Many of these things are in agreement with Mearsheimer who says Russia will likely annex Odesa, Kharkiv and 2 other oblasts, but Russia occupying Budjak would a red line for Romania and indeed for the EU (Russia reaching the Danube would impact all Central European countries, ie Germany, Austria etc). It would be a catastrophe for Moldova because it Russia will establish a connection to Transnistria and it will encircle Moldova from 2 directions. But this is a downsite of the frozen conflict prospect: a frozen conflict is impredictible and Russia will utilize all opportunities it will be given or will create itself to **** over Ukraine and the West.

[FfFfFfFF 58,113]

1 minute ago, LoliLux said:

The frozen conflict is the most likely one because:

- it delays any possible NATO membership, and NATO doesn't want Ukraine in it because then it cannot use UKR anymore to weaken RU

- likewise it delays any possible EU membership, and several EU states don't want UKR in it

- RU is stronger than UKR

- USA won't give UKR too much weapons b/c it is sockpiling them for a war with china over Taiwan or the Middle East -> so UKR cannot retake its old terrritory

- it already is the de facto new reality for over 15 months, little changes occured

 

I was gonna say!

[Ayesha Erotica 1,924]

26 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

(Russia reaching the Danube would impact all Central European countries, ie Germany, Austria etc). It would be a catastrophe for Moldova because it Russia will establish a connection to Transnistria and it will encircle Moldova from 2 directions.

 

Fortunately, Romania has built the Danube-Black Sea Canal, so Russia cannot issue a threat of blackmail and closure of the Danube if it gets there. By the way, in Germany, the Danube is primarily used for senior cruise ship excursions   It was originally expanded during the 90s with expensive means and even connected to the Main River by canal, and from the Main to the Rhine, so that theoretically one can go by ship from the Black Sea to the Dutch North Sea via the Danube-Main-Rhine rivers, all by water. The expansion actually took place because governments intended to use the Danube for more trade and goods transport - but trade was largely moved to roads and trains, and so the Danube has instead become a tourist destination. Only if Romania occupies the Budjak first and thus beats Russia in time will it have a chance of Budjak returning to the Romanian-speaking culture sphere.