Avatar: The Way Of The Water Are So Expensive, It Need To Make $2B To Break Even

[RAMROD 96,179]

How expensive is “Avatar: The Way of Water”? Early reports have claimed the production budget alone was in the $250 million range, but director James Cameronisn’t willing to give a hard number just yet. The only answer Cameron would give about the sequel’s budget when asked by GQ magazine was the following: “Very ****ing [expensive].”

Cameron apparently told Disney and 20th Century Studios executives that his sequel budget was so high it represented “the worst business case in movie history.” According to the director’s estimates, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

On the current chart of highest-grossing movies worldwide (unadjusted for inflation), Cameron’s original 2009 “Avatar” ranks at the top with $2.9 billion. Disney’s “Avengers: Endgame” is in second position with $2.7 million, while Cameron’s “Titanic” remains in the third slot with $2.1 billion. That means, according to Cameron, that if “Avatar: The Way of Water” wants to break even, it’ll need to overtake either “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” ($2.07 billion) or “Avengers: Infinity War” ($2.05 billion) in the fourth or fifth slots, respectively. 

Only five movies have ever crossed the $2 billion mark worldwide, unadjusted for inflation. While the pandemic has affected moviegoing, films like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” ($1.9 billion) and “Top Gun: Maverick” ($1.4 billion) have managed to turn huge profits, so there’s hope for “The Way of Water.” 

The original “Avatar” grossed $785 million domestically and sits at number four on the all-time U.S. box office chart, unadjusted for inflation. 
 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-budget-expensive-2-billion-turn-profit-1235438907/https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-budget-expensive-2-billion-turn-profit-1235438907/
 

 

Well,

[Killa 14,404]

The incoming biggest flop ever. 

[Reality 65,696]

I think the movie will do well at the box office, but there’s no way in hell it’s breaking even (if that number’s to be believed).

[berlinforme 4,984]

I'm sure many people will go & watch it but generally I feel very little hype and zero momentum for this movie

[Future Lovers 5,434]

I would take this with a grain of salt. 

One thing you've got to know going in about James Cameron is that he talks, he says things. Those things he says cover a wide spectrum of truth. There is some truth in what he's saying. The margin of success that the film needs to achieve is going to be larger than your average film. 

The combined estimated budget for the 4 Avatar sequels is about $1 billion dollars, so each film would get a production budget of around $250 million. Breaking even in Hollywood means achieving a multiplier of 2.5, or two and a half times the movie's production budget. In Way of Water's case, that'd be around $625,000,000 to be the break even point. Breaking even is not defined as profitability. To be considered profitable, it'd need to net an additional $250 million, so say around $875 million. 

Would $875 million be a disappointing return? Yes. 

Would that mean the movie lost money? No.

It is almost certain to clear that metric however. The movie would genuinely have to be bad and get **** word of mouth to not at least hit that. The opening weekend will be a big indicator of what it can do. We'll know within the weekend whether or not it's tracking for a billion plus. Right now, all signs point to it hitting that metric. 

1 hour ago, Killa said:

The incoming biggest flop ever. 

 

49 minutes ago, berlinforme said:

I'm sure many people will go & watch it but generally I feel very little hype and zero momentum for this movie

This is a very common point of discussion because the movie is said to've had no cultural impact but there are some important key things to keep in mind about this film going in:

1. James Cameron is famous for defying the odds. Titanic was supposed to be on paper a massive flop. It became the highest grossing film in history at that time, becoming the first film to make $1 billion in it's original theatrical run. It held the #1 spot until Avatar, another James Cameron film came along and dethroned it. Avatar was dethroned for a moment by Avengers: Endgame, but a Chinese re-release put Avatar back at #1. 

2. The Avatar sequels have been a cultural conversation for over a decade because everyone's been joking that they'll never come out. This has created a current of hype that isn't being discussed much because the conversation is a bit different than excitement: it's a public curious to see what took 13 years. That will drive heavy opening weekend turnout. 

3. Avatar as a brand has only gotten more lucrative since the film's release. The addition of The World of Pandora at Disney World has given the property more cultural relevance to people who maybe didn't see the first film upon release. Now with this film being backed by Disney, you can bet that their built in audience is going to turn up whereas they maybe wouldn't have without Disney's involvement and without the theme parks backing the film. 

4. Avatar is a behemoth in China. It will almost certainly secure a Chinese release because the original film is one of the most successful Western films of all time there (it may actually be #1). If the Chinese audiences turn out, this will be effortlessly a billion dollar movie. Two billion? I'm not so sure. 

5. The trailers have drummed up a lot of interest. They're in front of every major blockbuster and across all video platforms have amassed more views than trailers for some of the MCU projects. There is definitely interest in this film.

6. Lastly, the film had a re-release earlier this year and ended that 2 week engagement as one of the most profitable re-releases in history. It made $40 million worldwide on a re-release which is practically unheard of. People showed up to see that first film in droves 13 years later. The name, the brand, it has weight to it. 

[elijahfan 23,512]

Feels like they’re biting more than they can chew with this one. Not to mention there are 3 additional sequels in production.

I know the first one was a huge success, but I feel like it was mainly due to a curiosity factor regarding the technology. I’m afraid Cameron might be overestimating the audience’s engagement to the material, but we’ll see.

[InTheCloset 15,240]

I didnt even like the first movie. 

[weed 66,860]

I'm shook that Top Gun made 1.5 BILLION!!! they should've put hold my hand in the middle.. girl.. that's a lot of fking tickets!

I don't think the film will break 2B but I hope it's a massive success

[Lextyr97 17,539]

Lmao I feel like NO ONE is talking about this movie…

[Fuffy 977]

I saw the trailer and was a bit disappointed.

The plot just seems like the first film, "let's fight back against the human invaders" but just with watery friends to help. I was hoping they'd move away from humanity being the villian and create an original plotline.

Visually, I think we've come so far since the first movie that it'll take a lot to stand out the way it did originally.

But hopefully I'm wrong!

[Catnikko 11,508]

those numbers are probably the budget for the next 2 or 3 that they've already filmed at the same time surely? 

[Gagaplayer315 12,025]

After watching the trailers I still don't even know what the plot will be

[dove 444]

I agree that the hype for the first movie was because of the technology. Besides the one they used for the characters,  avatar was the movie that made 3D in films popular or something like that, which was part of the hype around that time. Even though I don't believe it made that huge of an impact, I mean I don't see toys of avatar figures being sold nor an interest in merchandise about this movie, I honestly think it can live up to the expectations. A trailer from 2 weeks ago has 37million views so that's gotta mean something. I've seen it too and everything is CGI, and it looks amazingly realistic, which is amazing. And honestly all those superhero movies that they've been pushing so bad felt so cheap and tiresome that this feels different and fresh so I'm eager to watch it on a big screen.

[TonzaPOP123 142]

Well I will take Avatar over overrated Marvel movies anytime...

[TonzaPOP123 142]

1 hour ago, catsounds said:

those numbers are probably the budget for the next 2 or 3 that they've already filmed at the same time surely? 

Well I have noticed how too many movie trailers these days spoil the whole plot too much so I prefer them to keep it under wraps, just like with Star Wars sequel trilogy trailers (whether you liked those or not).