George Friedman predicts Intermarium will become next super power

[FfFfFfFF 58,131]

George Friedman - prominent geopolitical forecaster - recently said a few interesting things while talking about the current international situation. He said the war in Ukraine proved Russia is only a world power only in the name, in reality unable to project power in its immediate neighbourhood, he also says China is economically not doing well and in decline, and so is Germany (the pillar of EU). He says EU isn't a superpower, but - this is the interesting bit - he says the region East of Germany and West of Russia (Intermarium) could eventually become the next super power.

He argues dominance by the Western European nations (particularly Germany) prevented the region from developing, but as Germany will fade away countris like Poland could step up and improve the regional economy. In the context of the war (so on a military level) Intermarium countries are also the ones able to influence Russia and the key nations in preventing Russian expansion. Intermarium has a population of 84M people, has low wages and highly educated people, so according to him there's a possibility of this region becoming a dominant exporter of cheap goods, and in turn a military and economic super power.

[Economy 52,861]

I don't buy it. If the low wages was gonna make it surge in manufacturing of cheap goods u would have seen it already as they have been industrialized long enough and with modern infrastructure enough to make businesses grow there if they wanted to. At the end of the day when it comes to cheap manufacturing they still can't compete with places like Taiwan, Vietnam and until recently China etc. That's where cheap manufacturing grows 

 

Also this is a pretty landlocked region. There is always an economic disadvantage when you are landlocked

 

Add to that many of those Nations are facing very advanced Ageing and population decline

 

And even if for some reason they did become an economic powerhouse, that does not necessarily mean they would in turn become a military powerhouse as that is a choice since resources and efforts have to consciously be made to work towards that

 

Also I'm not saying the region can't make some gains, improvements or increase in relative prominence if things go well. But to say Super Power I seriously doubt that

[spector 1,919]

hungary, my laughing stock of a country, becoming a superpower is the most ridiculous thing i've ever heard.   

[Economy 52,861]

4 minutes ago, spector said:

hungary, my laughing stock of a country, becoming a superpower is the most ridiculous thing i've ever heard.   

Next thing u know my Country (Portugal) will also be on the list

[Dennis 8,391]

Poland definitely had impressive growth, but mainly thanks to EU.

[FfFfFfFF 58,131]

21 hours ago, Economy said:

I don't buy it. If the low wages was gonna make it surge in manufacturing of cheap goods u would have seen it already as they have been industrialized long enough and with modern infrastructure enough to make businesses grow there if they wanted to. At the end of the day when it comes to cheap manufacturing they still can't compete with places like Taiwan, Vietnam and until recently China etc. That's where cheap manufacturing grows 

The entire Eastern and Central Europe is economically dominated by Germany. If I understand him correctly, Friedmand is pointing out to how Germany's downfall (caused by the energy crisis from which he seems to believe the country won't recover) means an economic vaccum will form which will allow Eastern European companies to replace German ones. He is pointing out in the video how EU is an organization made by developed economies for developed economies which doesn't allow opportunities for the economies on the developing side.

21 hours ago, Economy said:

 

Also this is a pretty landlocked region. There is always an economic disadvantage when you are landlocked

 

This is true (though the URSS managed to be a superpower without great sea access). Ultimately it did not work out for them and were overpowered by the US which has the best sea access: to the Atlantic and Pacific.

21 hours ago, Economy said:

 

Add to that many of those Nations are facing very advanced Ageing and population decline

 

To a great extend because of immigration to Western Europe (Eastern Europe is less affected by ageing than Western Europe). If the region becomes developed, it may attract the ones who left and maybe even reach a number close to 90M of people.

21 hours ago, Economy said:

 

 

And even if for some reason they did become an economic powerhouse, that does not necessarily mean they would in turn become a military powerhouse as that is a choice since resources and efforts have to consciously be made to work towards that

 

This is the buffer space between Russia and Europe which is becoming greatly militarized as we speak. Actually - even though I think his opinion has merits - I don't share his view that Central Eastern Europe will become a world power necessarily, the biggest elephant in the room being that these countries vale sovereignty too much and will never form a federation. However, even though not economically prosperous, the region is definitely on track to become a militarized.

[Guest]

I think the US will get back to being a superpower tbh

[FfFfFfFF 58,131]

1 minute ago, AnnaNicoleSmith said:

I think the US will get back to being a superpower tbh

It never stopped though. It was US vs URSS (US winning), now is US vs China and China is clearly in the second place. US is the world hegemon.

[FfFfFfFF 58,131]

20 hours ago, spector said:

hungary, my laughing stock of a country, becoming a superpower is the most ridiculous thing i've ever heard.   

Some academics call Hungary a middle power (=a sovereign state that is not a great power nor a superpower, but still has large or moderate influence and international recognition).

[Debithius 6,056]

Why do people keep comparing the EU to some super power? It's a TRADE union. Also the Intermarium as the next super power? He is full of BS, that won't happen, thet can't even take care of themselves.

[Magui 2,654]

Of course UE isn't a super power... it's almost a miracle to make all the union countries agree on many things. The UE isn't a federation. ( I must say that I got surprised in a good way how UE managed to respond in agreement to the invasion in Ukraine, even Putin phearps though that UE wouldn't respond that way lol).  I can see that phearps eastern europe have great chances to do better economically speaking, we are talking about big countries, lots of land and population... now if they managed to establish good relationship between them and keep a steady peace in region, that great news.

[Economy 52,861]

On 10/28/2022 at 3:57 PM, FfFfFfFF said:

The entire Eastern and Central Europe is economically dominated by Germany. If I understand him correctly, Friedmand is pointing out to how Germany's downfall (caused by the energy crisis from which he seems to believe the country won't recover) means an economic vaccum will form which will allow Eastern European companies to replace German ones. He is pointing out in the video how EU is an organization made by developed economies for developed economies which doesn't allow opportunities for the economies on the developing side.

This is true (though the URSS managed to be a superpower without great sea access). Ultimately it did not work out for them and were overpowered by the US which has the best sea access: to the Atlantic and Pacific.

To a great extend because of immigration to Western Europe (Eastern Europe is less affected by ageing than Western Europe). If the region becomes developed, it may attract the ones who left and maybe even reach a number close to 90M of people.

This is the buffer space between Russia and Europe which is becoming greatly militarized as we speak. Actually - even though I think his opinion has merits - I don't share his view that Central Eastern Europe will become a world power necessarily, the biggest elephant in the room being that these countries vale sovereignty too much and will never form a federation. However, even though not economically prosperous, the region is definitely on track to become a militarized.

I don't see any of these things being strong enough factors to make it a superpower

 

The immigrats that left are not all gonna come back and even if a high percentage eventually do... Immigrants age too like anyone else. It is not going to make the populations that much younger

 

I also doubt a short term energy crisis is gonna make Germany fall so much long term that these other countries are going to be considered better to live in anytime soon. Germany has a good government financial status, lower private debt than many developed Nations, and despite recent challanges for a long time has run big trade surpluses that helped bring up domestic savings

 

It's gonna take more than a few years of high natural gas and electricity prices and a few shut down plants for another region to replace Germany

 

I'm not saying this region can't grow or become a little more prominent in relative terms or increase economic strength but "Super Power" status is a big status and I don't realistically see how they are going to achieve this.

 

Still seems extremely far fetched to me for a mostly landlocked region with an aged population and low in Natural Resources is going to become some dominant force