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Risk of nukes is elevated but not probable (US assessment)


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I keep seeing the idea of Russia nuking Snake Island being thrown around. The island is inhabited so it may be a way a valid option in this regard, but what people need to understand is that the island lies a few dozen kilometers from the NATO border. It's closer to C. A. Rosetti US airbase and other Romanian villages than it is to any Ukrainian settlements.

Ukraine-map.jpg

 

 

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thatfoxyfeeling

Are we now officially living in a Cold War? Putin has got nothing left to lose, his reputation is in shambles so he’ll do whatever he can to win. 

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1 minute ago, thatfoxyfeeling said:

Are we now officially living in a Cold War? 

One will tell you the Cold War never ended or only ended briefly between the 90s and the 2000s. Now we are actually in a post Cold War era with a hot conflict in Europe (which is something that did not happen even during the peak of the Cold War - not counting the civil uprisings in Warsaw Pact countries).

3 minutes ago, thatfoxyfeeling said:

Putin has got nothing left to lose, his reputation is in shambles so he’ll do whatever he can to win. 

Thankfully he won't be the only one to take the decision. His reputation is also in shambles in the West but China, India etc are still friendly enough to him to meet him. That said we can't really know what the future will be, we are not robots or future tellers. If we live to see Russia being pushed out from Ukraine completely then I will start to worry. :green:

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FATCAT
38 minutes ago, Adrenaliner said:

Is this supposed to be calming

It's meant to be informative. Anything beyond that is up to you.

Purr more, hiss less.
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Mr Mendes

Any media source that seriously entertains the idea of a nuclear war at this stage is fearmongering, plain and simple. That is not the reality of the situation right now. At this moment, the US and Russia are in a war of posturing. I wouldn't even call it a cold war since neither are actively pursuing the means to attack and engage with each other on the level of war. They're simply both pushing against each other rhetorically and economically which is not a change from how they've interacted since before WWII was even over. 

The hot conflict is in Europe, and it isn't going to turn into a nuclear conflict either. To deploy nukes is to completely go against what the whole purpose of the invasion was to begin with. Putin doesn't want to destroy Eastern Europe, he wants to be in control of it. 

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8 hours ago, Mr Mendes said:

Any media source that seriously entertains the idea of a nuclear war at this stage is fearmongering, plain and simple. That is not the reality of the situation right now. At this moment, the US and Russia are in a war of posturing. I wouldn't even call it a cold war since neither are actively pursuing the means to attack and engage with each other on the level of war. They're simply both pushing against each other rhetorically and economically which is not a change from how they've interacted since before WWII was even over. 

The hot conflict is in Europe, and it isn't going to turn into a nuclear conflict either. To deploy nukes is to completely go against what the whole purpose of the invasion was to begin with. Putin doesn't want to destroy Eastern Europe, he wants to be in control of it. 

Do you know why it got the name Cold War? Cold War means precisely a proxy, indirect conflict between Moscow and Washington, what you call ''war of posturing".

"The hot conflict is in Europe". Well yes, and is the largest conflict the continent saw since WW2.

We can't in live in unresonable fear but neither pretend what happens is absolutely risk free. And when you say media is entertaining this idea, know that is not only about Daily Mail or tabloids but also geopolitical analysts and diplomats in both America and the US.

I think the last part of your post is revealing: Putin wants to control Eastern Europe. As you can tell by the mobilization he is prevented from doing so. If we live to see Russia pushed out from Ukraine completely, then it will be a worrying sign.

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8 hours ago, alecks said:

“It’ll be fine” hasn’t worked out too well for us in recent years though

At the same time, in December we already knew the war was coming. American sources were saying, yes, it is coming, while Russia was denying. And now we are in the opposite situation: Russia says it will defend its territories with nukes, but we have no American sources saying a nuke is coming. Unless the situation reverses, it still seems safe.

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1 hour ago, AnnaNicoleSmith said:

I see a dark ending for Putin

Are your senses telling you we will have to deal with a nuke down the road....? :oprah:

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I'll throw in a side of this which I've often wondered about. Since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nobody has detonated a nuke in anger (and that has been to a large extent BECAUSE of Hiroshima and Nagasaki). What would actually happen if a prime minister instructed the miltary to fire a nuke ? Would they do as instructed or would they have a think about it and then put a bullet in the f----r ? It's never been tested.

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