China's Population Shrinks In 2021 For The First Time In 6 Decades

[badfaith 5,716]

I'd rather grant a cousin or a stranger scholarship than have my own child to be honest, I can never see myself have a child when I still feel like a child  

And this way, you can help so many teens as long as you have the resources to do so

[Zaskar 4,027]

37 minutes ago, Economy said:

I wonder if there's temporary pandemic trends there that may temporarily reverse cuz even in 2019 the birth rate in India was still 2.2 children per woman

 

Anyway in India's case because the population is on average younger even if the birth rates stay below the replacement level it will still be decades most likely before the population starts to decline.

 

India will definitely pass China for sure and grow for years to come

It was 2.2 as per 2015-17 national health survey data. The recent survey which is for 2019-21 period shows TFR as 2.0, below the replacement rate of 2.1.

There might be some pandemic effect, but the decline has been consistent.

Survey (data year) - TFR

NFHS 1 (1992-93)- 3.4

NFHS 2 (1998-99)- 2.9

NFHS 3 (2005-06) - 2.7

NFHS 4 (2015-16)- 2.2

NFHS 5 (2019-21)- 2.0

 

The decline is consistent. As India is developing, people are wanting less and less children.

 

You are right about the younger demographic, but that won't last long too. 

 

[Economy 52,842]

3 minutes ago, Zaskar said:

It was 2.2 as per 2015-17 national health survey data. The recent survey which is for 2019-21 period shows TFR as 2.0, below the replacement rate of 2.1.

There might be some pandemic effect, but the decline has been consistent.

Survey (data year) - TFR

NFHS 1 (1992-93)- 3.4

NFHS 2 (1998-99)- 2.9

NFHS 3 (2005-06) - 2.7

NFHS 4 (2015-16)- 2.2

NFHS 5 (2019-21)- 2.0

 

The decline is consistent. As India is developing, people are wanting less and less children.

 

You are right about the younger demographic, but that won't last long too. 

 

It will last some time... For as long as the birth rate is above the replacement rate you have more young people being born than people entering middle age or senior years

 

It will take decades for Indias population to be tilted proportionally higher towards the aged such as is happening in so many Countries... And it will be decades before Indians population starts to fall most likely depending on how far birth rate drops especially given that no many years ago birth rates were still high meaning the older population dying off in total will still be smaller than the population being born even if that rate is below replacement level for the time being

 

Don't forget India may have just finally crossed the threshold of births below replacement rate but its gonna take a long time for the young people already born to age

 

Think if how long China has had strict regulations on births and births were already below replacement for so many years and only now the population is actually dropping for the first time. There is a considerable lag

[TheBannedShadow 3,424]

At this point in the world I myself, find that having children is one of the most selfish thing I could do.

[ALGAYDO 35,061]

8 hours ago, KORG said:

A mouth to feed, a responsibility to have? A drain on my personal finances? A thief of my daylight hours? No thanks

This took me out omg 

[KORG 4,756]

3 hours ago, Economy said:

Depends how u look at it. China pollutes a lot manufacturing for wealthy countries to consume those goods. The average Chinese person has way less footprint than a typical 1st world Nation

 

Just because developing Countries have taken over some of our manufacturing industries and produce the goods for us instead of us doesn't change the fact that the developed world is still the consumption monster that ultimately leads to "pollution"

 

I look at it from a realistic point of view... if you'll pardon the arrogance of it.

If these manufacturing hotspots were in almost any other country, they'd have a smaller carbon footprint than they do in China. With a lower young population, they'll have little choice but to increase their overheads & lead times, making developing manufacturing hotspots (Portugal, poland) easier, cheaper and definitely greener.

[Guest]

How are you gonna yas react to the Chinese population going down im so confused and disturbed 

[YourEvilTwin 1,384]

6 hours ago, KORG said:

I look at it from a realistic point of view... if you'll pardon the arrogance of it.

If these manufacturing hotspots were in almost any other country, they'd have a smaller carbon footprint than they do in China. With a lower young population, they'll have little choice but to increase their overheads & lead times, making developing manufacturing hotspots (Portugal, poland) easier, cheaper and definitely greener.

No they wouldn't. China hasn't been a low cost manufacturing country for a while and yet its dominance as the manufacturing centre hasn't been diminished one bit. You know why? Because it has by far and away the most robust and efficient manufacturing ecosystem on earth. To mass produce anything on a Chinese scale anywhere else would require an astronomical amount of resources, facilities and capacities to be built up over decades, and it wouldn't emit any less carbon in the end.

But go on about your realistic view and tell us how Europeans will obviously do it better and save the day like always.