Gaga wins Best Actress at Iowa Film Critics Association

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9 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

This. It's an insanely competitive year and the industry is diverging sharply from the critics circles (as in, they love Being the Ricardos, Don't Look Up, Gucci...also JHud). So it's really hard to predict as of now...

TBH I thought Gaga had a 50/50 shot of being snubbed from SAG because allegedly people at SAG screenings ate up Licorice Pizza (but that might have been overblown, too, as the only nod was best supporting actor) and so I figured Alana might take her spot. Plus, the press LOVES Alana and so I figured that positive PR might carry her through over Penelope Cruz, Rachel Zegler, Gaga, and Jennifer Hudson (I thought Kristen was locked).

But now that she snagged a SAG award and Gucci did so well with the BAFTA long list I'm starting to think she has like a 25% chance at winning. I also think there's a small chance she gets snubbed, though at this point I would estimate that her chance at being nominated is around 90-95%.

BAFTA is going to be VERY interesting. The new rules heavily favor UK actresses, so from what I understand Joanna Scanlen is pretty much a lock (she was in a well received British film) and Emilia Jones (despite being in a US film) is probably going to get in. Olivia is almost certain to get in, too, as she's so widely respected. So that leaves 2 slots...with Kristen, Alana, Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, Gaga,  and Jennifer Hudson as the most likely ones to get one of the two slots.

Who do you think is going to make BAFTA? Right now, I think Kidman is most likely to get one of the remaining slots but the other one could be anyone...

As far as the Oscars, I'm guessing it's Chastain/Gaga/Kristen/Kidman/Colman...but I could see Jennifer Hudson being nominated over Chastain or Kristen. What's your prediction?

My prediction for the Oscars is Chastain/Gaga/Kidman/Colman/Kristen

[Patriziaa Reggiani 7,647]

20 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

This. It's an insanely competitive year and the industry is diverging sharply from the critics circles (as in, they love Being the Ricardos, Don't Look Up, Gucci...also JHud). So it's really hard to predict as of now...

TBH I thought Gaga had a 50/50 shot of being snubbed from SAG because allegedly people at SAG screenings ate up Licorice Pizza (but that might have been overblown, too, as the only nod was best supporting actor) and so I figured Alana might take her spot. Plus, the press LOVES Alana and so I figured that positive PR might carry her through over Penelope Cruz, Rachel Zegler, Gaga, and Jennifer Hudson (I thought Kristen was locked).

But now that she snagged a SAG award and Gucci did so well with the BAFTA long list I'm starting to think she has like a 25% chance at winning. I also think there's a small chance she gets snubbed, though at this point I would estimate that her chance at being nominated is around 90-95%.

BAFTA is going to be VERY interesting. The new rules heavily favor UK actresses, so from what I understand Joanna Scanlen is pretty much a lock (she was in a well received British film) and Emilia Jones (despite being in a US film) is probably going to get in. Olivia is almost certain to get in, too, as she's so widely respected. So that leaves 2 slots...with Kristen, Alana, Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, Gaga,  and Jennifer Hudson as the most likely ones to get one of the two slots.

Who do you think is going to make BAFTA? Right now, I think Kidman is most likely to get one of the remaining slots but the other one could be anyone...

As far as the Oscars, I'm guessing it's Chastain/Gaga/Kristen/Kidman/Colman...but I could see Jennifer Hudson being nominated over Chastain or Kristen. What's your prediction?

 BAFTAs voters Top 2 nominees gonna get directly nominated without the intervention of secret committee, and if Those Top 2 are British actresses then my rest 3 would be Gaga, Kidman and Chastain. I'm not sure about Kristen getting a nomination for Spencer due to the involvement of Prince William. Well we'll see. 

If Gaga wins SAG, and BAFTAs goes to another actress, it's going to be pretty tough one to predict. If it goes to Kidman then she's clearly the winner me thinks.

Oscar nomination for Gaga is locked as of now.

[LilyLark 10,108]

13 minutes ago, Patriziaa Reggiani said:

 BAFTAs voters Top 2 nominees gonna get directly nominated without the intervention of secret committee, and if Those Top 2 are British actresses then my rest 3 would be Gaga, Kidman and Chastain. I'm not sure about Kristen getting a nomination for Spencer due to the involvement of Prince William. Well we'll see. 

If Gaga wins SAG, and BAFTAs goes to another actress, it's going to be pretty tough one to predict. If it goes to Kidman then she's clearly the winner me thinks.

Oscar nomination for Gaga is locked as of now.

Yeah, the royal connection at BAFTA is going to hurt Kristen a lot imo.

I feel like in terms of a win (re: SAG) it's between Gaga, Chastain, and Kidman....and I could see Kidman or Colman snatching up BAFTA. If Kidman gets just one of the above, I agree that she probably has the Oscar in the bag. The wild card is Chastain imo. Her film flopped, but she's campaigning so hard right now (way harder than anyone else) and she's widely popular in Hollywood...if she takes SAG and Colman wins the BAFTA over Kidman...I could easily see her winning.

It's wild that arguably the most polarizing performance (she definitely had her supporters, but if one reads the top reviews on RT there are some top critics who are pretty critical) might win. For all of film twitter's annoyance at Gucci, I'd argue Gaga had less criticism. That said, the Rotten Tomatoes consensus on Gaga, Chastain, and Kidman's films all single them out as the standout.

I know Nicole is a legend and Being the Ricardos is a very academy friendly film, but still....I kind of feel if she wins it's going to be more of a career Oscar for having so many good performances versus the actual performance in the film. That said, she's obviously still good in the film even with the issues.

[Patriziaa Reggiani 7,647]

26 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

Yeah, the royal connection at BAFTA is going to hurt Kristen a lot imo.

I feel like in terms of a win (re: SAG) it's between Gaga, Chastain, and Kidman....and I could see Kidman or Colman snatching up BAFTA. If Kidman gets just one of the above, I agree that she probably has the Oscar in the bag. The wild card is Chastain imo. Her film flopped, but she's campaigning so hard right now (way harder than anyone else) and she's widely popular in Hollywood...if she takes SAG and Colman wins the BAFTA over Kidman...I could easily see her winning.

It's wild that arguably the most polarizing performance (she definitely had her supporters, but if one reads the top reviews on RT there are some top critics who are pretty critical) might win. For all of film twitter's annoyance at Gucci, I'd argue Gaga had less criticism. That said, the Rotten Tomatoes consensus on Gaga, Chastain, and Kidman's films all single them out as the standout.

I know Nicole is a legend and Being the Ricardos is a very academy friendly film, but still....I kind of feel if she wins it's going to be more of a career Oscar for having so many good performances versus the actual performance in the film. That said, she's obviously still good in the film even with the issues.

Yeah the last part I agree the most, Nicole Kidman is due her Oscar for so long, But I still somehow wants Gaga to win (maybe that's the stan in me) but I'd be happy with Nicole/Chaistain, I'm not sure about Olivia though she can be the underdog if she wins BAFTA. 

[Meat 18,962]

Nicole, Gaga, Olivia. The top 2 at the BAFTAs is going to be one of these ladies. The other four nominees will all be from lesser known movies that we haven’t even heard of.

[zakariah 11,722]

1 hour ago, Patriziaa Reggiani said:

Yeah the last part I agree the most, Nicole Kidman is due her Oscar for so long

but nicole already got a Best Actress oscar back in 2002 though  should let someone else get it this time imo

I thought that kristen was a sure-thing to win the oscar when the season started but now i'm not sure anymore

[Just A Holy Fool 2,577]

2 hours ago, zakariah said:

but nicole already got a Best Actress oscar back in 2002 though  should let someone else get it this time imo

I thought that kristen was a sure-thing to win the oscar when the season started but now i'm not sure anymore

A huge portion of the Oscar voting base is SAG... Kristen missing a SAG nomination I think all but kills her chances of winning the Oscar now. She I think will eek out a nomination, but currently I think the race is between Kidman and Colman with Gaga playing spoiler. 

If Gaga wins SAG.... omfg!

[MelbHawker 6,583]

I still think Kristen is a lock for at least a nomination for Best Actress come Oscars. I’m not sure who’s winning it this year - Nicole’s a certified legend, & Id love to see her win her second Oscar but I don’t think her Lucille Ball biopic-performance is as faultless as let’s say Streep’s was when she did Thatcher, or Renee’s when she did Judy. I’d even go as far as to say this role really wasn’t for her.. not when Kathryn Hahn exists (or even Deborah Messing who looks like Ball). Olivia’s a safe bet, but mostly because she’s a previous winner (not to discredit her performance). Gaga has momentum, but I don’t see her winning, a nomination seems a lock though. With all this said though, Nicole’s win at the Globes has given her the edge. SAG/Critics Choice will be very telling as to who will win Id imagine. 

[Killa 17,543]

hold on to the lube sistren, we edging for more than a month still

[zakariah 11,722]

10 hours ago, Just A Holy Fool said:

A huge portion of the Oscar voting base is SAG... Kristen missing a SAG nomination I think all but kills her chances of winning the Oscar now. She I think will eek out a nomination, but currently I think the race is between Kidman and Colman with Gaga playing spoiler. 

If Gaga wins SAG.... omfg!

in 2019, regina king got snubbed for best supporting actress SAG but won the oscar, so now i'm kinda like

[Cssomeone 1,646]

1 hour ago, zakariah said:

in 2019, regina king got snubbed for best supporting actress SAG but won the oscar, so now i'm kinda like

As far as I know, Regina wasn't nominated for a SAG in 2019 because there was a distribution problem for her movie, which was responsible for her absence, along with the whole cast. However, she won the Golden Globes (which Kristen didnt) and the Critic's Choice Awards (which Kristen didnt win yet). It's very unlikely for Kristen to win the Oscar without the support of the biggest voting group, who are her peers, by the way.

[LilyLark 10,108]

14 hours ago, zakariah said:

but nicole already got a Best Actress oscar back in 2002 though  should let someone else get it this time imo

 

I mean, I do not believe the performance warrants an Oscar....but her winning in 2002 (20 years ago) shouldn't be a factor. She arguably should have been nominated several more times than she actually has been so she kind of has the "overdue" factor.

[Just A Holy Fool 2,577]

17 hours ago, LilyLark said:

I mean, I do not believe the performance warrants an Oscar....but her winning in 2002 (20 years ago) shouldn't be a factor. She arguably should have been nominated several more times than she actually has been so she kind of has the "overdue" factor.

There is precedent for over due actresses winning for critically divisive roles. I’m thinking Streep for The Iron Lady. Kidman is current the front runner by stats I think.