Critical consensus is shifting on Gaga's Oscar chances?

[Bradley 57,641]

While Kristen Stewart is hailed as a current frontrunner for Best Actress in many media predictions, some critical opinions seem to single out Gaga from the other contenders in the Oscar race.

Variety seems to think that Gaga has an edge over other contenders: https://variety.com/video/awards-predictions-film-best-actress/

Is the Best Actress Race a Showdown Between Kristen Stewart and Lady Gaga?

For months now, prognosticators have been buzzing about a showdown between two powerhouses in the best actress race: Kristen Stewart vs. Lady Gaga. But in actuality, the lead actress race is much more competitive than that, with several excellent performances in the mix, both from previous Oscar winners and total newcomers.

In the video, a Variety critic says "I think Kristen's biggest competition at this point is Lady Gaga. (1:15)"

 

In Variety's official Best Actress chart by Clayton Davis, there seems to be a typo. Their #1 choice is Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga seems to be their second choice but it was numbered #3. Kristen Stewart follows Gaga but seems to be numbered 2 instead. This is a confusing situation. https://variety.com/feature/2022-oscars-best-actress-predictions-1235021150/

 

Entertainment Weekly actually places Lady Gaga (#3) above Kristen Stewart (#4). Their #1 and #2 are Penelope Cruz and Rachel Zegler, respectively.

https://ew.com/awards/tracking-top-oscars-contenders-2022/

Peter Travers of ABC recently updated his Actress predictions. Lady Gaga is now his #1 choice, switching place with Kristen Stewart at #2.

Vogue: Gaga? Stewart? Kidman? Some big names are in the running for Best Actress at the Oscars

While not explicitly ordering them according to odds, it might be noteworthy that Vogue namedrops Kristen Stewart first, and then immediately follows it with Lady Gaga. In the title, it is also Gaga and Stewart who are namedropped rather than say, Jessica Chastain and Olivia Colman.

https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/lifestyle/oscars-2022-best-actress-predictions/image-gallery/5953c5eb9f1c5a434ea2865b204df8c2

 

What is interesting is that the UK's EveningStandard has reviewed a set of films and list out what these movies would win in which categories. They did not predict all the nominees, only winners, and interestingly, Lady Gaga is their choice for Best Actress, rather than Stewart's portrayal of Princess Diana. A GoldDerby member claims that Gucci is doing exceptionally well in the UK, and would actually stand a great chance at the BAFTA. Of course Stewart still has an edge, but some UK audiences take issue with Princess Diana's portrayal.

Will win: Best Actress, Lady Gaga (er, maybe)

https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/oscars-2022-predictions-film-awards-season-guide-es-magazine-b969637.html

 

In "Oscar Experts predictions slugfest: Is Lady Gaga on the rise (again)?", two critics discuss Lady Gaga's chances after the NYFCC win.

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2021/2022-oscar-predictions-lady-gaga-best-actress-experts/

 

On GoldDerby's combined predictions, Gaga was at #6 when Gucci started to receive mixed reviews. She has now slightly risen to #5.

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2022-predictions/

 

Of course Gaga is by no means a "locked winner", but it seems that her NYCCA win has tipped her chances quite noticeably. It remains to be seen how the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice spice things up.

[Dojo 19,365]

i watched Spencer like two nights ago

i think she is going to win 

[weed 71,419]

and just like that, a second Oscar

[Hyperobject 66,769]

3 minutes ago, dojo said:

i watched Spencer like two nights ago

i think she is going to win 

did you watch in theater? 

[LateToCult 39,967]

Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist opens tomorrow. Nomination voting opens January 27. Final voting for the award doesn’t open until March 17. We still have a very long way to go. 

[InTheCloset 17,784]

if someone would have told me in 2008 that bella and miss gaga would fight for an oscar in 2022 i would never have believed it. i have a feeling our mama wont win but im hoping she does while lightning my illuminati candles

[Bradley 57,641]

1 minute ago, LateToCult said:

Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist opens tomorrow. Nomination voting opens January 27. Final voting for the award doesn’t open until March 17. We still have a very long way to go. 

Isn't that good news for Gaga supporters?

It is harder to sustain a "sure win" narrative for that long. Gaga had this narrative with A Star Is Born for a few months and then quickly lost momentum during New Year.

[LateToCult 39,967]

2 minutes ago, Bradley said:

Isn't that good news for Gaga supporters?

It is harder to sustain a "sure win" narrative for that long. Gaga had this narrative with A Star Is Born for a few months and then quickly lost momentum during New Year.

Not necessarily good or bad. Gaga could slowly build momentum and peak at the perfect time for voting or she could peak earlier on and then be overtaken by other actresses when the voting begins for nominations/award. There’s no real way of knowing. It’s just gonna suck for us because we have a long time to wait.  

[pedrohemg 7,802]

First, she needs a Globe nomination on Monday. Although I think it's pretty obvious they'll nominate her because of her power, and they need her power, I'm not so sure. People in the industry will say they're a non-factor this year, but that's a lie. Every actor will celebrate a nomination and win, they just won't admit it.

[Bradley 57,641]

30 minutes ago, pedrohemg said:

First, she needs a Globe nomination on Monday. Although I think it's pretty obvious they'll nominate her because of her power, and they need her power, I'm not so sure. People in the industry will say they're a non-factor this year, but that's a lie. Every actor will celebrate a nomination and win, they just won't admit it.

I'm wondering whether they submitted Gucci under Drama or Comedy/Musical.

Some people might think that Gucci might stand a chance at winning if it goes under Comedy (especially the performances).

[HookerOnAChurch 6,656]

1 hour ago, dojo said:

i watched Spencer like two nights ago

i think she is going to win 

Same here. Kristen is incredible 

[Dojo 19,365]

1 hour ago, Ororo Munroe said:

did you watch in theater? 

No, i wish! i missed it in theaters here or i wonder if it wasn't in theaters at all 

[pedrohemg 7,802]

6 minutes ago, Bradley said:

I'm wondering whether they submitted Gucci under Drama or Comedy/Musical.

Some people might think that Gucci might stand a chance at winning if it goes under Comedy (especially the performances).

HOG is certainly funnier than The Martian that was nominated and won in comedy/musical years ago, but I don't like this idea. Gaga needs to be among the top 5 drama actresses. 

[Meat 18,962]

54 minutes ago, HookerOnAChurch said:

Same here. Kristen is incredible 

The movie is horrible though. I can’t see it winning any BAFTAs at all. Especially because Prince William is the president. I can see why the British crowd hated it. It’s a disservice to Princess Di.

[callmexoxoalice 13]

Yeah no way gaga will win, HOG is just ok and gaga is only 1/3 of it.

Spencer is literally Kristens movie.