Tension rises at Russia-Ukraine border, new conflict likely

December 6, 2021

10 hours ago, NightStar said:

There is a solid point in your post regarding the self-imposed feeling of being exposed to external threats due to the absence of natural barriers. Even before Napoleon and Hitler invasion, it had been woven into the Russian culture by the perception of what had at some points in time been considered the greatest cultural tragedy of Russia: the invasion of Mongols (1238-1240).

Despite the ancient nature of the event, it was later reflected upon as one of the biggest loss of time, culture and chance for development for Rus', because Mongolian army overran nearly all the major cities, destroyed Kiev and subjected almost the entire Rus' to its rule for almost 300 years (until formally 1480).

After the fall of Kiev, except for the period during which the Kievan tradition was continued in the Kingdom of Galicia, Russian civilization shrank and survived only in the far north and in the east (Novgorod and the principalities of the upper Volga, one of which, Moscow, ultimately succeeded in unifying the neighboring territories).

So this fear of conquest goes way back earlier than Hitler or Napoleon.

As per the tensions rising alongside the border, it has a lot more to do with the current diplomatic stuff rather than with Russia's destructive foreign policy nature per se. There is an understanding that's shaping up on both sides of the border about the peace process which was established under German Mrs. Merkel, French Mr. Hollande, Russian Mr. Putin and Ukranian Mr. Poroshenko in Minsk in February of 2015. They are called Minsk II agreements, and regardless of how people perceive the contents of these agreements, nobody can claim that the proposed measures have been implemented, again, regardless of the reasons.

Russian foreign Minister Mr. Lavrov has recently published (breaking the diplomatic protocol) some letters he was exchanging with German and French vis-à-vis in an attempt to expose eu partners' lack of enthusiasm of Minsk II agreements. The President of Ukraine Mr. Zelensky gave an interview to Financial Times earlier this year, where he called for "a revamp of the peace process". It's almost safe to assume that the Minsk II agreements will soon become history, and if so, then both sides of this war will no longer have their signatures put under the ceasefire agreement.

There are a lot of people who have been skeptical about the Minsk II peace process and called the Minsk II agreements "stupid papers" from the very start, but the very existence of such signed agreements gave a lot of room for diplomatic opportunities and diplomatic efforts to end this conflict. Without Minsk II agreements, there will be no clear room for diplomacy, and when there's no room for diplomacy, there is room for war.

On a grander scale, Russia's rogue behavior in foreign policy is not so much explained by the sense of humiliation because of Soviet Union collapse and the consequent desire to restore it in some way; for some weird reason Kremlin (mis)conceptions date rather to Russian Empire. They demand influence over all territories which had been in Russian Empire's realm, including Finland and Poland. Kremlin chief foreign policy makers live in some sort of parallel universe where Russia won the First World War and the Bolsheviks never happened, and they continue to ignore the fact that it's a rather broke-ass country that can't afford such grand foreign policy.

Certainly, these are many details I wasn't aware of.
I used Napoleon and Hitler as widely known precedents when Russia's geographic disadvantages were used by Western nations (Mongols came from the East).
Without a doubt Russia's goal is more ambitious than just keeping former URSS countries under their influence, they want to expand (notabily interferring in the Middle East, keeping friendly relations with Serbia etc).

December 6, 2021

13 hours ago, Fanta said:

I am so over the idiotic, incompetent imbeciles that happen to run the world consistently killing people for this d!ck measuring contest humanity has had to endure since the beginning of time. Is it really that damn hard to mind your business, stop killing people and focus on the shortcomings of your OWN countries?

The majority of the world protests, signs petitions, donates and speaks out and the big wigs could still not care less. I cannot wait for the day where 'power' as we know it is no longer. Just sad, absolutely sad.

This is my same logic, post COVID, what sane individual really wants to go to war right now, no one; everyone’s honestly just trying to live, enjoy life, and get by. All this is really so annoying and unnecessary and is truly like you call it just a “d!ck measuring” contest

December 6, 2021

1 hour ago, MonsterVlad said:

Okay, this is the second time in my life I don't know what to do because of Russia.
I was born in Donetsk and lived there for 19 years before it was occupied by so-called Donetsk People's Republic supported by Russia. Long story short: my family lost everything. We moved to Kyiv and worked so hard for 7 years to start a new life from scratch. And now Russia laid its eyes on Kyiv

The map in the OP is just hypothetical, I don't know if Russia would really want to annex Ukraine's capital out of all the territories they can get.

December 6, 2021

10 hours ago, Magui said:

I don't see NATO or UE intervention if Russia goes forward and annex some more Ukraine territories, sanctions probably. Probably trying more negations. Crimeia was annexed the same will happen with other territories i guess.

I was reading an article once that discussed various scenarios of Russian interventions in Eastern Europe, one of them being the annexation of NovoRossia. It was said that if Russia would annex the entire Odessa Oblast from Ukraine, is a question if NATO would interfer as Russia would directly border Romania which is a NATO country. This article was a bit older, nowadays NATO is more sciended and that likely affects of all this.

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