Shang Chi Is A Flop

[Chromatican 4,046]

17 minutes ago, P0JffionRowQat said:

 

F9, Widow, and  ShChi  broke even and made small  profit. 

To break even,  (Budget  x  2.5  =  break even)

F9 without  counting China, is  $513M total.   Budget  $200M  x  2.5  =  $500M  to  break even.  F9 made $13M profit.

Here's the link to the budget of GvK       www.imdb.com/title/tt5034838/      (scroll to the bottom)   Box office    Budget          $200,000,000 (estimated)  x  2.5  =  $500M to break even.   GvK's total was $467M.  GvK flopped  and  lost money

Blck Widow's budget was $200M  x  2.5  =  $500M  to break even.  BW made $378M total and adding the Disney+  $125M  =  $503M.   It  made $3M  profit.   Disney had to pay ScarletJo $40M  for the lawsuit.   So this movie lost money due to the $40M  loss.

ShChi's budget was $150M  x  2.5  =  $375M to break even.   Right now, SC made a total of $383M, which is $8M  for profit.   Estimating next week (last week) will make about $15M.  So ShChi profits a total of  about $23M.  

 

SC did not flop.  

 

 

This is not how the box office works. Movie theaters keep some of the profit, and the budgets listed for movies don't include promotional budgets, only production budgets. A movie with a $150 million budget needs to make closer to $500 million to break even.

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

26 minutes ago, P0JffionRowQat said:

 

F9, Widow, and  ShChi  broke even and made small  profit. 

To break even,  (Budget  x  2.5  =  break even)

F9 without  counting China, is  $513M total.   Budget  $200M  x  2.5  =  $500M  to  break even.  F9 made $13M profit.

Here's the link to the budget of GvK       www.imdb.com/title/tt5034838/      (scroll to the bottom)   Box office    Budget          $200,000,000 (estimated)  x  2.5  =  $500M to break even.   GvK's total was $467M.  GvK flopped  and  lost money

Blck Widow's budget was $200M  x  2.5  =  $500M  to break even.  BW made $378M total and adding the Disney+  $125M  =  $503M.   It  made $3M  profit.   Disney had to pay ScarletJo $40M  for the lawsuit.   So this movie lost money due to the $40M  loss.

ShChi's budget was $150M  x  2.5  =  $375M to break even.   Right now, SC made a total of $383M, which is $8M  for profit.   Estimating next week (last week) will make about $15M.  So ShChi profits a total of  about $23M.  

 

SC did not flop.  

 

 

I'm sorry but Shang -Chi didn't cost only $150 Million. That expenses was just from Australia location costs alone. 

I guess when one comic book site lies about productions costs it just cascades into a mess of lies. 

[Chromatican 4,046]

1 hour ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

I'm sorry but Shang -Chi didn't cost only $150 Million. That expenses was just from Australia location costs alone. 

I guess when one comic book site lies about productions costs it just cascades into a mess of lies. 

How much do you think SC cost? Wikipedia only lists 150-200 million which is a huge range and makes me think it is closer to 200 million meaning it’d need at least 600 million to break even at the box office. 

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

1 hour ago, Chromatican said:

How much do you think SC cost? Wikipedia only lists 150-200 million which is a huge range and makes me think it is closer to 200 million meaning it’d need at least 600 million to break even at the box office. 

200M is about the cost of most Marvel movies these days even with the 50M tax credit the Australia supposedly gave which they give to every movie shot there. Not 50M but the same percentage tax credit. I'm pretty sure Thor Ragnarok received it too. Not to mention that back end deals don't kick in until profit is made so a movie that may have cost 200 million to be made can easily end up eating profit when back end deals are paid off. 

Also Widow wasn't a flop. This guy's math is all off. Widow didn't just make the money off of premier access + Box office and GvK didn't just make money off of the box office. They also brought in revenue from subscribers and new subscribers on their respective streaming services. Streaming numbers are very important. 

Netflix spends at time $100M+ on movies like Bright or 6 Underground and they are successful and never even see a movie theatre. Because streaming revenue is super lucrative. That's why Disney paid the extra $40 million to Scarlet. I didn't even know that until the other user mentioned it. They made or stand to make alot more than those $40M paid in streaming revenue from Black Widow.

 

[Willco 351]

On 9/7/2021 at 3:40 PM, skaxboy said:

I loved it. I want to see it again and there’s a 4D version playing at one of the newer fancy theaters. I hope it’ll be playing midweek next next week.  

Oh god the 4dx version was almost painful. My poor spine. I preferred it in VMAX 

[Chromatican 4,046]

20 minutes ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

200M is about the cost of most Marvel movies these days even with the 50M tax credit the Australia supposedly gave which they give to every movie shot there. Not 50M but the same percentage tax credit. I'm pretty sure Thor Ragnarok received it too. Not to mention that back end deals don't kick in until profit is made so a movie that may have cost 200 million to be made can easily end up eating profit when back end deals are paid off. 

Also Widow wasn't a flop. This guy's math is all off. Widow didn't just make the money off of premier access + Box office and GvK didn't just make money off of the box office. They also brought in revenue from subscribers and new subscribers on their respective streaming services. Streaming numbers are very important. 

Netflix spends at time $100M+ on movies like Bright or 6 Underground and they are successful and never even see a movie theatre. Because streaming revenue is super lucrative. That's why Disney paid the extra $40 million to Scarlet. I didn't even know that until the other user mentioned it. They made or stand to make alot more than those $40M paid in streaming revenue from Black Widow.

 

Did GvK really bring in streaming audiences though? HBOMax seems to not be a viable streaming competitor still. 

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

10 minutes ago, Chromatican said:

Did GvK really bring in streaming audiences though? HBOMax seems to not be a viable streaming competitor still. 

Its at 45 million subscribers. But it's a $15. Disney+ is at $100 million subscribers  but it's at $8 but it's less with the bundle of Hulu ESPN and D+. That's the bundle I have. 

 

But both Disney+ and HBO are ahead of Hulu which has been around forever at 39M and much ahead of Peacock and Paramount+ which have close to 30M+ each. 

However they lack behind Amazon Prime Video at 200M and NetFlix at 207M.

[Chromatican 4,046]

6 minutes ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

Its at 45 million subscribers. But it's a $15. Disney+ is at $100 million subscribers  but it's at $8 but it's less with the bundle of Hulu ESPN and D+. That's the bundle I have. 

 

But both Disney+ and HBO are ahead of Hulu which has been around forever at 39M and much ahead of Peacock and Paramount+ which have close to 30M+ each. 

However they lack behind Amazon Prime Video at 200M and NetFlix at 207M.

I don’t consider streaming subscribers who watch GvK on a subscription service to be apart of GvK’s numbers. Watching a movie on a streamer is a passive purchase compared to buying a movie ticket of PVOD access. 

[RAMROD 107,491]

Imagine this thread turned into a place where people started being serious about this movie being flop when the OP was clearly a tongue in cheek shade over the very people who claimed Shang-Chi is gonna be a flop movie. 
 

Massive cringe

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

12 minutes ago, Chromatican said:

I don’t consider streaming subscribers who watch GvK on a subscription service to be apart of GvK’s numbers. Watching a movie on a streamer is a passive purchase compared to buying a movie ticket of PVOD access. 

Doesn't matter what you consider. Money is money. Streaming numbers are lucrative. 

I used to have AMC Stubs A-List membership. I was entitled to three movies a week for free. Those movies somehow got their cut and it's still a subscription. I watched all my Marvel movies and so much more like that instead of paying $14 everytime I want to see a movie. Pre-pandemic of course. 

[P0JffionRowQat 27]

  

2 hours ago, Chromatican said:

How much do you think SC cost? Wikipedia only lists 150-200 million which is a huge range and makes me think it is closer to 200 million meaning it’d need at least 600 million to break even at the box office. 

The-Numbers , their whole website is about data and stats, they won't post $150M unless it's accurate.  Link below.

If SC's $150M needs to reach $600M, that is 4 times.  Then F9, Gdzilla vs Kong, and Blck Widow are all flops because these 3 movies are $200M budgets.

$200M budget times 4, F9 and BW need to reach $800M to break even?  I'm sorry, but that's too much.  That's why SC doesn't need to reach $500 or $600

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Chromatican said:

This is not how the box office works. Movie theaters keep some of the profit, and the budgets listed for movies don't include promotional budgets, only production budgets. A movie with a $150 million budget needs to make closer to $500 million to break even.

Simu makes smaller salary than ScarletJo, that saves about $10M.  Simu does not get bonuses he is a rookie, that saves another $40M since Disney paid ScarletJo $40M for the bonuses.

So from $150M budget, SC's break even point is at $375.  That is 2.5 times.

 

 

 

[P0JffionRowQat 27]

  

1 hour ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

200M is about the cost of most Marvel movies these days even with the 50M tax credit the Australia supposedly gave which they give to every movie shot there. Not 50M but the same percentage tax credit. I'm pretty sure Thor Ragnarok received it too. Not to mention that back end deals don't kick in until profit is made so a movie that may have cost 200 million to be made can easily end up eating profit when back end deals are paid off. 

 

 

 

 

Exactly, film in the US they have to pay $50M tax for the production budget, which total to about $200M.  SC filmed in Australia saved this tax break.

Link to the $150M is on The-Numbers website.  The-Numbers is about data and stats, they're more accurate than other sources.  

Source

image

 

  

1 hour ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

Widow didn't just make the money off of premier access + Box office and GvK didn't just make money off of the box office.

 

I did add the premiere access which was $125M.  Plus $378M from theaters

= $503M total.

 

1 hour ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

They also brought in revenue from subscribers and new subscribers on their respective streaming services. Streaming numbers are very important. 

They made or stand to make alot more than those $40M paid in streaming revenue from Black Widow.

 

Same for SC

SC will be on streaming services Disney+ to gain new subscribers too, it'll be on Nov 12.

[Chromatican 4,046]

10 hours ago, P0JffionRowQat said:

  

The-Numbers , their whole website is about data and stats, they won't post $150M unless it's accurate.  Link below.

If SC's $150M needs to reach $600M, that is 4 times.  Then F9, Gdzilla vs Kong, and Blck Widow are all flops because these 3 movies are $200M budgets.

$200M budget times 4, F9 and BW need to reach $800M to break even?  I'm sorry, but that's too much.  That's why SC doesn't need to reach $500 or $600

 

 

 

 

Simu makes smaller salary than ScarletJo, that saves about $10M.  Simu does not get bonuses he is a rookie, that saves another $40M since Disney paid ScarletJo $40M for the bonuses.

So from $150M budget, SC's break even point is at $375.  That is 2.5 times.

 

 

 

Shang-Chi had a production budget of 150-200 million and an estimated promotional budget of 50 million. That puts it between 200-250 million total budget. Movie studios do not keep all of the theatrical profits of a movie, especially from overseas box office. If they keep 60% of the current US box office of Shang-Chi they would get an estimated 125 million, 40% of the overseas box office is equal to about 72.4 million which means Disney has not quite broken even on Shang-Chi’s modest budget expectations.

[P0JffionRowQat 27]

30 minutes ago, Chromatican said:

Shang-Chi had a production budget of 150-200 million and an estimated promotional budget of 50 million. That puts it between 200-250 million total budget. Movie studios do not keep all of the theatrical profits of a movie, especially from overseas box office. If they keep 60% of the current US box office of Shang-Chi they would get an estimated 125 million, 40% of the overseas box office is equal to about 72.4 million which means Disney has not quite broken even on Shang-Chi’s modest budget expectations.

 

I'd rather believe The-Numbers(dot)com as a more accurate source than someone without providing a source.  The "promotional budget" you're talking about I already included it in the Marketing + theater costs + international costs + all the things you mentioned for ShngChi to be roughly about $375M to break even.  Industry standard is about 2.5 to 3 times the production budget.  

Please provide a source that states all the things you mentioned only applies to ShngChi?  Otherwise all those things you mentioned apply to all movies.  That means F9 and GvK were flops too by your standard.  For F9's China's box office, it was about $190M which China kept 75%, leaving F9 studio with only about $49M.  So F9's total box office was about $565M which was flop.

I'm using F9 as an example, based on all your deductions, most movies would flop too because you're deducting at a rate of about 3.35 times production budget, which is too high.  Anyway, going by your high rate of 3.35 times the production budget to break even, then most movies even before 2019 or prior have flopped.  
 

[Chromatican 4,046]

42 minutes ago, P0JffionRowQat said:

 

I'd rather believe The-Numbers(dot)com as a more accurate source than someone without providing a source.  The "promotional budget" you're talking about I already included it in the Marketing + theater costs + international costs + all the things you mentioned for ShngChi to be roughly about $375M to break even.  Industry standard is about 2.5 to 3 times the production budget.  

Please provide a source that states all the things you mentioned only applies to ShngChi?  Otherwise all those things you mentioned apply to all movies.  That means F9 and GvK were flops too by your standard.  For F9's China's box office, it was about $190M which China kept 75%, leaving F9 studio with only about $49M.  So F9's total box office was about $565M which was flop.

I'm using F9 as an example, based on all your deductions, most movies would flop too because you're deducting at a rate of about 3.35 times production budget, which is too high.  Anyway, going by your high rate of 3.35 times the production budget to break even, then most movies even before 2019 or prior have flopped.  
 

Sorry, but movies that cost over 200 million need to AT LEAST double their total budgets to be considered successful. The low-end of marketing a studio film is 35 million, a Marvel movie's marketing is most likely much greater than that. Shang-Chi won't become profitable until 2022 when it rakes in DVD sales and streaming numbers.