PartySick 173,103 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Some 64% of Republican voters said that they would likely join a new political party if former President Donald Trump were to start one, according to a Hill-HarrisX poll that the Hill reported Thursday. The poll also found that 28% of independents and 15% of democrats said that they would likely join a third party if Trump were to start one. All told, some 37% of US voters said they were likely to join a Trump third party, according to the poll. Source Actually only 32% said they were VERY likely to join but I decided to make a 2024 electoral map based on this Splitting the 2020 GOP votes by 64% for Trump, 36% for whomever the GOP would run in his place. For example: Alabama | 36.7%(DEM) / 39.8%(PAT) / 22.4%(GOP) - Trump's party would keep Alabama by 2.1% Alaska | 43%(DEM) / 33.9%(PAT) / 19.1%(GOP) - Democrats would take Alaska by 9.1% If he does decide to split and take 64% of GOP voters with him, and assuming the turnout and votes are similar to 2020, the 2024 electoral map could very much look like this: The Pros: - Democrats would hold the White House for decades - Democrats would have a super majority in both chambers of congress for decades - The GOP would likely lose every major election for decades if they manage to survive at all - Literally every state above that isn't blue is within a tight enough margin to be classified as "swing" - Leftist policies would suddenly become extremely easy to establish (M4A, climate action, minimum wage, wealth tax, UBI, etc) - Look at that pretty blue from one shore to the other The Cons: - A Trump/Patriot Party would, overnight, become the 2nd most influential political party in the US. - This new influence would legitimize some of the farther alt-right views like those of Trump, Greene, and Qanon as a whole. While they'd likely never win the White House or a chamber in congress, they would have a foot hold in several states which is a scary thought regardless - Allowing this party to exist at all is just asking for the radicalization of conservatives in the US and that would be something to reckon with eventually So, who would support a spiteful Trump splitting the right? Who thinks it wouldn't be worth it and would rather contend with the GOP as is? Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
migamiga 12,102 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 this is all i could think about when i read the cons Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franch Toast 27,741 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Please, please start a Trump party. That'll really "own the libs." She/Her/Hers Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSlash 14,539 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Another pro would be that there might be more than only 2 parties relevant for election. Bc right now, if you're not a dem or a rep, you will only ever see the White House from the outside . I'm not American, but that is what I imagine the current political situation is over there Ew, David! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FATCAT 60,896 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What I don't think a lot of people factor into this, is that after Trump splits the conservative movement, conservatives will almost never win. They'd need to gain back that 10-20% of voters that kept them just over 50%, and without it, they lose lose lose. Those losses will breed resentment and want people in the movement to change so that they can win elections again. Long-term it makes the case for a further-left republican party. Short term, it means a further left Democratic party! This kitten over here (meow) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
REALITY 80,177 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Honestly, the 15% of Democrats joining is a more shocking number. Like, I get that Trump—in 2016—positioned himself as an "outsider" and "anti-establishment" candidate, which might appeal to some of the more progressive members of the Democratic party, but that's where the similarities end...His views and the views of his followers are literally the polar opposite, why would they join his party? 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔪𝔬𝔫𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯 𝔱𝔬𝔯𝔢 𝔞𝔴𝔞𝔶 𝔦𝔱𝔰 𝔪𝔞𝔰𝔨 𝔞𝔫𝔡...𝔦𝔱𝔰 𝔣𝔞𝔠𝔢 𝔴𝔞𝔰 𝔪𝔦𝔫𝔢. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,103 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Reality said: Honestly, the 15% of Democrats joining is a more shocking number. Like, I get that Trump—in 2016—positioned himself as an "outsider" and "anti-establishment" candidate, which might appeal to some of the more progressive members of the Democratic party, but that's where the similarities end...His views and the views of his followers are literally the polar opposite, why would they join his party? I don't know if they meant 15% would join HIS party, just "a third party" He's never polled above 10% with Democrats so I doubt 15% would suddenly decide they like him enough to join his party Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,103 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, FATCAT said: What I don't think a lot of people factor into this, is that after Trump splits the conservative movement, conservatives will almost never win. They'd need to gain back that 10-20% of voters that kept them just over 50%, and without it, they lose lose lose. Those losses will breed resentment and want people in the movement to change so that they can win elections again. Long-term it makes the case for a further-left republican party. Short term, it means a further left Democratic party! Yeah, it really destroys the "we have to cooperate with the center and right to be functional" thing. 'Cause honestly? The right would NEVER win again so f*ck 'em let's do what we want Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaLa 19,898 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This actually makes me very very nervous. Having what will be a far-right, nationalist party just seems... bad. I know the argument is that it will take people away from the Republicans and split that party, which, great, but long term I don't know... Remember in 2015 everyone was hooting and hollering at the idea of Trump actually running and how he would tank the Repubs Just feels like the start of a chapter in a history book that doesn't end well Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,103 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, LaLa said: This actually makes me very very nervous. Having what will be a far-right, nationalist party just seems... bad. I know the argument is that it will take people away from the Republicans and split that party, which, great, but long term I don't know... Remember in 2015 everyone was hooting and hollering at the idea of Trump actually running and how he would tank the Repubs Just feels like the start of a chapter in a history book that doesn't end well I agree with this The GOP is already losing relevance without establishing a Qanon/alt-right party. Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimisaMonster 31,073 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 People admitting they would join a political cult ran by Trump... Stream my new single, 💜"Heartbeat"💜, on Spotify! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
REALITY 80,177 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, PartySick said: I don't know if they meant 15% would join HIS party, just "a third party" He's never polled above 10% with Democrats so I doubt 15% would suddenly decide they like him enough to join his party Okay, that definitely makes more sense 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔪𝔬𝔫𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯 𝔱𝔬𝔯𝔢 𝔞𝔴𝔞𝔶 𝔦𝔱𝔰 𝔪𝔞𝔰𝔨 𝔞𝔫𝔡...𝔦𝔱𝔰 𝔣𝔞𝔠𝔢 𝔴𝔞𝔰 𝔪𝔦𝔫𝔢. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,103 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Reality said: Okay, that definitely makes more sense Yeah, I guess once the 2 party system is broken, a good chunk of voters would decide to join other teams. The Green and Libertarian parties would be a good fit for some leftist and centrist Democrats Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Married the Night 3,955 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 please stop don’t Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlipAway 880 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GOOD. Join away! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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