caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Nate Cohn doesn’t see a path for Trump to get AZ: My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Dave Wasserman, who does that Cook Political report, doesn’t see a path for AZ to get in the red column either: My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Nate Silver is no longer mumbling about a possible path for Arizona to remain red this presidential election: My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Heart 15,041 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Right now I'm just concerned about Republican legislatures sending an alternate slate of electors to cast votes for Trump in certain states. I know the probability is low, but with Trump, I just dont know. ▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 7 hours ago, Lion Heart said: Right now I'm just concerned about Republican legislatures sending an alternate slate of electors to cast votes for Trump in certain states. I know the probability is low, but with Trump, I just dont know. You know, I hate doing this on GGD, but there’s a Snopes page for that: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/legislatures-override-electors/ Let me save you a click: No, the states can not override the will of the voters like that. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Heart 15,041 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 ▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahb 17,246 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Thank god he got Pennsylvania, could you imagine the struggle we'd be going through right now wondering if he's gonna get at least 2 other states/if Arizona is actually his Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 This information is already tweeted above, but keep in mind that Pinal county is quite red (it was the last big pro-Trump drop we had yesterday) but even they are now giving us blue drops, as explained in this tweet. I expect the next Maricopa county big drop to be pro-Biden, increasing Biden’s lead over Trump. Point being: After yesterday’s drop, we will no longer have pro-Trump drops; we’re going to continue to increase Biden’s lead in AZ. Trump’s only hope in AZ are the provisional ballots, and, as a rule of thumb, provisional voters tend blue. Trumpists are still chasing that unicorn, but I am sure they will come up disappointed once we start counting provisional ballots in AZ. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pachinko 10,766 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 20 hours ago, Jill said: I wish Trump had won Just when I was starting to like you baby girl Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Deep red La Paz county in Arizona counted their essentially last ballots. Heavily Trump, but under 1,000 votes. Almost as red Cochise county has about 3,500 red ballots to count. It will decrease Biden’s lead, but it’s not enough votes to put AZ in the Trump column. The next big Maricopa update will be at 9pm (Eastern time). My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gagaism 12,487 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Any guesses on when they’ll get all counted on AZ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gagaism said: Any guesses on when they’ll get all counted on AZ? It will take another week or two. The evidence indicates that what’s left in Maricopa county benefits Biden, but there’s still a fairly large set of ballots to be counted in Cochise county which will narrow Biden’s lead. The provisional ballots in Pima county will benefit Biden, but who knows how many will be accepted. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 We have gotten the rest of the non-provisional ballots from deeply red counties in Arizona. It was around 4,500 ballots, and they had (not surprisingly) a strong Trump tilt. Biden still leads by 14,886 votes in Arizona and the only county with a lot of uncounted non-provisional/waiting for sig verify ballots is Maricopa; there is one other medium-sized red county to count: Yavapai, with 1,300 votes left to vote, which will probably give Trump 400-500 more votes compared to Biden. So, it all comes down to how much those remaining Trump ballots in Maricopa lean red (or blue) go. And, oh, the provisional ballots, but the lion’s share of those are in blue Pima county, so these ballots will probably move the needle back in Biden’s direction. https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html# My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 The latest drop of Maricopa votes has been made. It was 6,250 votes, +140 Trump, so about 51% Trump, 49% Biden. Trump needs over 60% of the vote (Edit: 63.8%) in these drops to win Arizona; 51% Trump drops in Maricopa county keep the needle steady. Current needle position: +14.746 Biden https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/09/arizona-election-live-updates-2020-presidential-election/6219684002/ Yavapai will give Trump about 1,000 more votes, and at the current pace, Maricopa will give Trump at most 1,000 more votes, so Biden will be in the ballpark of leading by 13,000 votes when all of the good ballots are completed. Then there are those 18,000 provisional votes in Pima county (Tucson) which will move the needle towards Biden again. Other provisional votes will probably be neutral. I would be very surprised if Biden were less than 10,000 votes ahead of Trump in AZ when all is said and done. For people just scanning this thread, Biden does not need AZ to win, but Trump does need this state. This is about McCain’s legacy as much as anything else. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 Keep in mind there has not been a single Maricopa drop of votes with over 60% Trump. The drops are getting close to 50-50 or slightly favoring Biden. The chance of Trump getting Arizona is, shall we say, slim. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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