NH Primary 9/08

[JRCF29 8,230]

The last New England primary* takes place today, setting the stage for what is sure to be an expensive and much-talked about slate of federal races amplified by New Hampshire's perennial status as a Presidential Swing State. There is only one statewide Republican incumbent, but there's a very real opportunity for the GOP to put a Trump ally in Congress come November, thereby throwing a splash of red up on the deep blue Northeastern scoreboard. Here are some races to watch:

 

*Rhode Island's primary is also being held today, with no races of interest

Governor (Republican)

Chris Sununu is one of the most popular governors in the country and receives high marks from both Republicans and unaffiliated voters. His pandemic response has been panned by the state Democratic Party in large part due to his insistence on directing funds to charter and private schools, but polling has indicated a majority of residents are happy with how he's handled the pandemic; New Hampshire has one of the lowest numbers of active cases in the nation and he has distributed funds to hospitals and other medical facilities in such a way that they were able to keep themselves and their treatments in continuous operation. Sununu also secured thousands of pieces of PPE for frontline workers and medical personnel. 

Karen Testerman thinks that Sununu's pandemic response has been overdramatic and that he has used COVID-19 as an excuse to ascend the throne. Derisively branding him "King Sununu", Testerman and her allies have demanded a full reopening of New Hampshire with no restrictions on gatherings, no mask mandates, and in-person schooling for every district. The Franklin City Councilor is a frequent critic of moderate Republicans, though this race marks her first entry into a primary against a sitting incumbent of her own party. 

Polling and fundraising numbers do not indicate that tonight will be a good night for Karen Testerman, and Sununu has mostly ignored the challenge from his right, going so far as to skip a primary debate. 

Results

Sununu (i) - 88% vs Testerman - 11%

Italics indicates a candidate is leading

Bold indicates a candidate has won

 

Governor (Democrat)

Dan Feltes is the majority leader of the State Senate, where he represents state capital Concord and routinely spars with Governor Sununu on a gauntlet of issues; so far this year, Sununu has vetoed over 20 bills that have made it to his desk including a paid-leave plan the majority leader sponsored. Feltes is campaigning on a platform of stricter gun control and access to abortion (the latter of which earned him the endorsement of PPAF-backed Rep. Annie Kuster (NH-02)) but is also making a point of supporting racial reforms including opening an Office of Racial Equity. Feltes has been supported by the usual establishment suspects like Molly Kelley and Colin Van Ostern (the last two Dem nominees for this seat) and several trade unions. 

Andru Volinsky is running to Feltes' left and is a supporter of Medicare for All. Like Feltes, he is touting his work protecting access to abortion and is also promising to boost funding for mental health research and treatment. Marijuana legalization advocated are also likely to be drawn to the District 2 Executive Councilor's plan to decriminalize marijuana possession for minors and legalize it outright for those of age. He blames marijuana restrictions, at least in part, for the high incarceration rate of Black citizens. Volinsky has the backing of progressive climate groups including the Sierra Club, and boasts an endorsement from Bernie Sanders who teamed up with him for a campaign finance reform bus tour in 2019. 

The race appears to be tight- but not a lot of attention has been paid to it- and Bernie did win the New Hampshire primary here in February. But regardless of who wins, they will be facing a tough race. 

Results

Feltes- 52% vs Volinsky- 48%

 

Senate (Republican)

Corky Messner is the preferred candidate of Donald Trump and his campaign team, and is a fairly mainstream conservative: he ticks the boxes on abortion, the 2nd Amendment, and taxes. He is also a China hawk and has called for increased restrictions on Chinese students studying in an American college, pointing to intelligence reports finding that the CCP has abused higher education systems in the past. A military veteran and Colorado-based lawyer, Messner recently moved full-time to New Hampshire to run for this seat, after previously owning a vacation property there. He is putting a lot of his own money into the campaign and has been up on the airwaves for a couple months now. He is reportedly under investigation for charity fraud and a domestic incident, though no arrests or convictions have been made on either count. In addition to Team Trump, libertarian-minded Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has called the candidate a true "outsider" who could shake up the Senate. 

Don Bolduc is another military veteran, another pro-life candidate, another gun rights supporter, and a China hawk in his own right- he was quoted as saying that China may have created the Coronavirus pathogen during the spring peak of the outbreak. His campaign hasn't been as visible as Messner's but perhaps the biggest war hawk in the Republican Senate Conference, Tom Cotton (R-AR), has endorsed him. For those who take a broad view of the U.S Military's role on the world stage, that endorsement might push them to Bolduc. 

Neither candidate has a good shot of beating Senator Jeanne Shaheen at the moment, but a Messner win will likely spur Trump-aligned forces to jump in to the race and might rev up the President's base at a time (two months away from the election, duh) when he could use a momentum boost.

Results

Messner- 51% vs Bolduc- 42%

 

District 1 (Republican)

This is shaping up to be in the top 10 of the most competitive House races of 2020. Republicans populate this district in relatively equal numbers to Democrats but the blue wave blocked the seat from turning red in 2018. Matt Mayberry believes that his experience as a Dover city councilor and the NH Human Rights Commissioner, along with over three decades of miscellaneous campaigning and operative experience best positions him to win the seat. He has run the race as a populist and recently released an intense "Us Vs. Them" ad in which he accuses his opponent of being a carpetbagger puppet of special interests. Mayberry is an extremely pro-gun voice in his party and belongs to the highest level of NRA membership possible. He is considered to be too liberal on the issue of abortion for some conservatives, but perhaps they'll look past it and instead focus on his support for a border wall. 

Matt Mowers is running on the theme of law and order, though in a less aggressive way than Trump- who has endorsed him. Appearing at various pro-police events, Mowers has sought to cast incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas as a rubber stamp for the BLM agenda of defunding the police. He is alleged to own a condo in D.C, perhaps from his time as a State Department official under President Trump's administration, giving rise to claims that he moved to New Hampshire to run. He was also, however, the executive director of the NHGOP a few years back. In an age where voters of both parties are increasingly skeptical of China, Mowers is hoping to leverage his foreign policy experience to convince them that he knows the way to the Achilles heel(s?) of the CCP. 

This race is Mowers' to lose, though Mayberry might come within striking distance if his relationships in party circles hold up tonight. 

Results

Mayberry- 26% vs. Mowers- 61%