Blair Walsingham For Congress

[Seeka 12,372]

I figured I'd shine a light on the person running as the Democratic candidate for congress in Tennessee. Because it really makes me happy. 

https://blairforcongress.com/policies

I'll do a TL;DR of her policies. 

She wants Universal Public Income, to end the Forever Wars and redesignate the flow of cash from military to something more worthwhile, to have Universal Healthcare that also covers mental and emotional health, term limits for both Congress and the Supreme Court, legalizing marijuana, reducing the prison population, and fighting climate change. 

Her chance of winning is small, but I believe in her. And I'll be out in August to vote for her. 

[JRCF29 8,230]

Well, I appreciate your enthusiasm for your candidate, I love politics and elections also, but she’s in one of the reddest districts in the country

I was surprised to read her position on the Second Amendment, which wasn’t exactly what I was expecting from a candidate endorsed by MDA 
 

At the very least she’s an interesting candidate 

[Seeka 12,372]

7 minutes ago, JRCF29 said:

Well, I appreciate your enthusiasm for your candidate, I love politics and elections also, but she’s in one of the reddest districts in the country

I was surprised to read her position on the Second Amendment, which wasn’t exactly what I was expecting from a candidate endorsed by MDA 
 

At the very least she’s an interesting candidate 

Let me hope lols. I'm not sure if candidates can be written in on a congressional ballot. 

But I'm just hoping for Republicans to infight as bad as Democrats do (and since they're all basically carbon copies of each other, I wouldn't be surprised) and their votes split between the main representative and write-ins of the other try-hards.

You mean Moms Demand Action right? IDK about that. Slow gun reform over time would be easier, and safer than outright banning guns. 

[StarstruckIllusion 53,580]

I’d vote for ha yuppp

[JRCF29 8,230]

2 hours ago, Seeka said:

Let me hope lols. I'm not sure if candidates can be written in on a congressional ballot. 

But I'm just hoping for Republicans to infight as bad as Democrats do (and since they're all basically carbon copies of each other, I wouldn't be surprised) and their votes split between the main representative and write-ins of the other try-hards.

You mean Moms Demand Action right? IDK about that. Slow gun reform over time would be easier, and safer than outright banning guns. 

Hmm. I don’t believe Tennessee has a jungle primary, but the field on the GOP side is crowded (10+ candidates). Blair is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination, I believe. 
 

 I honestly doubt a consequential number of republicans would write in a candidate other than the nominee. In certain districts a messy primary might mean trouble and even a small percentage of write-ins could push the race one way or another, but Tennessee’s 1st is not one of them.

Take this scenario:

100 voters (45 Democrat/Democrat-Leaning, 55 Republican/Republican-Leaning) 

GOP Candidate: (43)

Dem Candidate (45) 

Conservative Write-In Candidate (12)

In the above scenario, a Republican nominee and a conservative write-in candidate split the vote enough give the  Democrat a win in a right-leaning district. Almost 22%* of Republican voters went for a write-in, and a left-wing candidate won. Let’s replace the hypothetical district with TN-01, and assume that about 22% of Republicans decide to rally behind a more conservative candidate than the nominee. 

TN-01 looks more like this. It’s difficult to determine party breakdown because TN doesn’t require voters to register by party; however, by looking at the primary vote totals from 2018 we can get a clearer picture. Given that this district voted for Trump by the exact same margin it voted for Roe last time around, I’m confident there isn’t a level of nuance or ticket-splitting here that might render predictions based on these criteria useless. I’ll be generous and give the Democrats a bit more of a constituency than I think they actually have. 

100 voters (30 Democrat/Democrat-Leaning, 70 Republican/Republican-Leaning) 

GOP Candidate (55) 

Dem Candidate (30)

Conservative Write-In Candidate (15)

 

Blair would need about 45% of the Republican-leaning vote to go to a write-in, and I just can’t imagine that happening 

 

*22% of voters defecting like this is an extremely high number, and as such highly unlikely. And even that wouldn’t be enough for a Dem in a district like TN-01

EDIT: I think I might have figured out an even better/more accurate way to show this but I’m not sure it’s the middle of the night here I’ll follow-up tmr