Franz Ferdinand 2,359 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 35 minutes ago, Spyro said: 538 never had Clinton at an advantage in those states. Ever. Neither through polling averages or chances of winning. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/mississippi/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/south-carolina/ You'll notice her small convention bump, but take a look at 538 for Texas... Biden actually surpassed Trump. He still has his VP & convention bump to come.. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ Not to say this is in stone, but to say 2020 is a repeat of 2016 is a mis-understanding & will be a downfall of the Trumpsters. Don't buy into media rating traps and always say well-informed. edit: ok I can understand South Carolina, but that was a one-time phase. Make sure to pay attention to trends, especially if they're >a month away from the election. TBT at 538 giving Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Trump a 29% chance the day before the elections, though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spyro 8,438 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Franz Ferdinand said: TBT at 538 giving Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Trump a 29% chance the day before the elections, though. These are respectable probabilities tho especially compared to other forecasters who gave her >90% chance. Just because a candidate got >50% =! a victory. This is how statistics work. If I gave you a 100 skittles, and said 29 of those will instantly kill you, how confident will you in taking one of these? Many forecasts under-estimated the EC, but got her spot-on for winning the popular vote. Now, we know better and hopefully that mistake would not be repeated. Spoiler sorry i'mma big fan of 538 lol Spyro the Dragon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franz Ferdinand 2,359 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Just now, Spyro said: These are respectable probabilities tho especially compared to other forecasters who gave her >90% chance. Just because a candidate got >50% =! a victory. This is how statistics work. If I gave you a 100 skittles, and said 29 of those will instantly kill you, how confident will you in taking one of these? Many forecasts under-estimated the EC, but got her spot-on for winning the popular vote. Now, we know better and hopefully that mistake would not be repeated. Reveal hidden contents sorry i'mma big fan of 538 lol Lol, I know how stats work, I'm a scientist. My cynicism stems from the fact that a lot of these polls always seem to overestimate democrats' chances, particularly because they can'take into account thinks like voter suppression. To claim, particularly this early in the race, that Biden's chances are good (maybe even really good), only serves to keep the mildly-interested-in-politics people from voting. Trump has a die-hard voter base that will vote for him no matter what, meanwhile Biden's base is simply a majority of people who want to see Trump out. It doesn't make for any certain election outcome. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spyro 8,438 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Franz Ferdinand said: Lol, I know how stats work, I'm a scientist. My cynicism stems from the fact that a lot of these polls always seem to overestimate democrats' chances, particularly because they can'take into account thinks like voter suppression. To claim, particularly this early in the race, that Biden's chances are good (maybe even really good), only serves to keep the mildly-interested-in-politics people from voting. Trump has a die-hard voter base that will vote for him no matter what, meanwhile Biden's base is simply a majority of people who want to see Trump out. It doesn't make for any certain election outcome. Lol sorry for under-minding you. But I agree, I'm never a fan of talking about election trends/polls four months before the election.... I usually don't even start to pay a tenth of attention until after the convention.... but quarantines got me so bored and looking at these trends (especially some that shouldn't even be coming in conversation like Texas/Georgia flipping) are quite interesting to read and watch. The democrat favoritism always bothered me too, because it doesn't feel like we're getting a fair representation of what's actually happening and I could understand the right on *some* degree why polls shouldn't be trusted this far out. Spyro the Dragon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antoni 5,332 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 So, fun fact: the idea of red/blue/swing states is a media narrative that was created in the 2000 election to further separate us and oversimplify politics. My name isn't Timmers Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franz Ferdinand 2,359 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Timmers said: So, fun fact: the idea of red/blue/swing states is a media narrative that was created in the 2000 election to further separate us and oversimplify politics. This is true. If anything, American politics are very much shaped by the urban-rural divide. Time to make free city-states. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, Spyro said: I'm never a fan of talking about election trends/polls four months before the election. my primary predictions threads are pressed I think it’s fine to talk about polls and trends and polling and voter registration and fundraising and odds, as long as you understand that politics is by no means an exact science and that predictions aren’t gospel (which many in the media, including 538, would do well to understand). Spoiler I want to be a political science major Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rumours 45,521 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Spyro said: It really isn't. People forget the 2018 Texas senate election. THOSE results were once considered fantasy. Texas is not as far fetched as some people think. Should he spend more resources in the states you said? Absolutely. But it's not bad if he spent any "extra" time in states like Arizona and Texas. Comparing the 2018 Senate race to this is (in my opinion) very misguided. Biden has not (and will never) muster the same grassroots support that Beto had in the state. Biden is viewed not only as an establishment candidate but also as a continuation of the Obama administration... which won't bode well in the state overall. Moreover, even with a candidate that many were very motivated by in that senate race, the Democrats still lost against Ted Cruz - a republican who Trump attacked mercilessly during the presidential primaries AND is despised within his own party. So yes, in my opinion Biden winning TX is pure fantasy... especially given he is the democratic candidate in 2020. Biden needs to focus primarily on the states mentioned in my previous comment. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharkmanthaC 115,079 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 4 hours ago, BillieGOAT said: I hate to be a downer but there’s no way Trump loses Texas Polls were calling South Carolina a swing state back in 2016 and he won by almost 15 points 3 hours ago, PartySick said: Yeah, Biden doesn't need Texas but it's kinda funny that there's a Dem in a competitive position there period. If he wins FL, NC, or any combination of the Great Lake states then he's won Trump can't afford to lose ANY of them. There's hope As someone from NC but currently visiting SC, I would be shocked if Trump lost either state. The place I’m at has lots of people from neighboring states and I think I’ve seen at least 20 Trump flags flying. she/her/hers Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillieGOAT 5,272 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SamanthaC said: As someone from NC but currently visiting SC, I would be shocked if Trump lost either state. The place I’m at has lots of people from neighboring states and I think I’ve seen at least 20 Trump flags flying. I’m living in SC right now and I totally agree Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadow 6,697 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 7 hours ago, Maleficent said: But I think that if Biden is to win Texas, it means he’s already won NC, AZ, the rust belt, and probably Florida. I.E. it doesn’t make much sense for Biden to throw resources at Texas, because it won’t be a deciding state, it would be the difference between 300 something electoral votes vs. close to 400 electoral votes If Biden could capture Texas's 38, it would give him an edge so to get 270 votes out of 538. Stand in the light, cast your shadow. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImTired 3,956 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 9 hours ago, Spyro said: 538 never had Clinton at an advantage in those states. Ever. Neither through polling averages or chances of winning. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/mississippi/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/south-carolina/ You'll notice her small convention bump, but take a look at 538 for Texas... Biden actually surpassed Trump. He still has his VP & convention bump to come.. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ Not to say this is in stone, but to say 2020 is a repeat of 2016 is a mis-understanding & will be a downfall of the Trumpsters. Don't buy into media rating traps and always stay well-informed. edit: ok I can understand South Carolina, but that was a one-time phase. Make sure to pay attention to trends, especially if they're >a month away from the election. You fixed it, sis. I was going to say SC def closed the gap in Aug. Omg. I need to Trump to go! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
djBuffoon 12,239 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Americans: staying home isn't an option this year. Please VOTE, and help end this chaos. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maleficent 6 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 11 hours ago, Shadow said: If Biden could capture Texas's 38, it would give him an edge so to get 270 votes out of 538. Right but my point was that if Biden has the popularity to turn Texas blue, he’d already have the rust belt and Ohio on lock (hed have already won the presidency). I don’t believe there’s a scenario where Biden loses the rust belt and Florida, but wins Texas (based of demographics of the state) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollardays 4,202 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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