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6/30 Primary Predictions

JRCF29
Posted (edited)

As we await final calls in New York, and either celebrate, scorn, or feel indifferent towards Amy McGrath's win in the Bluegrass State, it's time we turn our attention to another slate of primary races. In Oklahoma, one race and a ballot question have caught my eye; in Utah, two races.

 

Oklahoma

 

District 5 Republican Primary 

Michael Ballard vs. Janet Baressi vs. Stephanie Bice vs. David Hill vs. Shelli Landon vs. Jake Merrick vs. Terry Neese vs. Charles Pringle vs. Miles Rahimi

2020 is the year of pitting women against each other (in elections, that is:ally:), and this district is following the trend. Incumbent Rep. Kendra Horn flipped this district in 2018 and is going to have to mount a serious campaign if she'd like to keep it. Trump easily won the district in 2016 by a margin of about 15 points, and Horn is the first Democrat to represent it since the 1970s. Of the four candidates that have a serious shot at qualifying for a spot in the runoff, three are women. Janet Baressi is a former state schools superintendent, Stephanie Bice represents a state legislative district that covers pieces of the 5th, David Hill is a businessman and has the backing of religious Family Research Council Action PAC along with some business executives, and Terry Neese last ran for office in 1990 but has since served on the White House's Small Business Advisory Council. Bice and Neese lead the pack in fundraising, and in the latest (and, problematically for these purposes, only) poll- conducted just a few days ago. In a state where President Trump remains pretty popular I don't expect Neese to have trouble clearing the threshold to make a runoff, given that she's run pretty close to him and her campaign ads feature her wearing a Trump hat, but Bice has the profile and the weight of the NRA and Oklahoma's Right to Life chapter behind her. I expect the first round will yield results of Bice 34%, Neese 25%. 

Medicaid Expansion Ballot Question

This is one to watch. Oklahoma voters will be either approving or rejecting the expansion of Medicaid to residents making 133% of the poverty level*. The campaign is paying out against the backdrop of a looming budget crunch and the pandemic that led to that crunch in the first place; supporters of expansion have cited the COVID-19 virus as a reason to expand the government program in the interest of public health, while opponents have expressed alarm over whether or not the legislature will be able to fund it as the economy contracts and tax revenues are expected to sharply decline. In Oklahoma, almost 15% of residents have no health insurance, and rural hospitals have been closing their doors in recent years. But Governor Kevin Stitt has searched for a solution in the form of a new "block grant" program from the Trump Administration, in which the federal contributions to the program are capped and states develop a set Medicaid budget from that**. CMS Administrator Veerma says the program will help to extend the life of Medicaid by way of fiscal responsibility. Medicaid expansion has long ceased to be a red or blue state issue, with voters in both Maine and Kentucky, Louisiana and California expanding the program in recent years (several more states have, I'm just making the point about red/blue.) Honestly it's hard to tell where this one's headed given that I'm not in tune with Oklahoma... Elections are a bit easier to predict and analyze (at least for me rn) than questions like this. I'm going to say that expansion will pass 55%-45%, but that doesn't mean that anything will happen immediately. There's a complex legal process with this I'm sure. 

 

*Because of the wording of the Affordable Care Act, this would effectively cover adults up to 138% of the FPL

** I suggest looking into this more on your own if it interests you, there's several components to it and I can't cover an entire healthcare policy in these threads (nor would I want to on a ****ing Stefani G forum :ladyhaha:

 

Utah

 

Utah Republican Governor Primary

Spencer Cox vs. Jon Huntsman vs. Greg Hughes vs. Thomas Wright

Utah's Lt. Governor Spencer Cox is the slight favorite to win, as far as I'm concerned, given the popularity of the current administration and the fact that the head of that current administration, Governor Gary Hebert, has endorsed him. He has also been raising a considerable amount of cash, and doing so consistently. Complicating his path to the nomination is former Governor John Huntsman, who is also well-funded, who left the post in 2009 to serve as President Obama's Ambassador to China and later the Ambassador to Russia under the Trump Administration. Interestingly, some media articles on the race have tried to frame it as a referendum on bipartisanship or centrism given that Huntsman has served both a liberal and conservative White House; interesting because Spencer Cox is hardly a member of the alt-right and both represent relatively mainstream-if-not-moderate choices. Polling has consistently showed Cox and Huntsman trading the pole position. The other candidates in the race are unlikely to make too much of an impact as they have poor funding, low name recognition, were rejected by the party at the state convention, have no endorsements or high-profile support to speak of, or some combination thereof. Huntsman, it should be noted, was very popular during his time as governor and his family has deep ties to the region- Meghan McCain, from neighboring Arizona, has publicly supported his candidacy. I predict a Cox win in the ballpark of 35%. But it's really up in the air.

District 4 Republican Primary

Kim Coleman vs. Kathleen Anderson vs. Burgess Owens vs. Jay McFarland vs. Chris Biesinger vs. Trent Christensen vs Cindy Thompson

Kim Coleman, a state rep, has received the backing of the seat's former occupant, Mia Love, as well as Trump ally Rep. Jim Jordan (OH) and four current and former state legislators; pro-life advocacy organization Susan B. Anthony List has also supported her candidacy. Kathleen Anderson, somewhat surprisingly given her position as a state party official, has failed to gain any traction in the race and indeed was eliminated in the fifth round of the state convention. Burgess Owens is a former pro football player and he's gotten public support from former teammates and Fox News host Sean Hannity. In April, polls showed that 7 in 10 voters were undecided, but a month later Burgess Owens was in the driver's seat, 8 points ahead of his nearest rival. The dark horse candidate, if you will, is Jay McFarland- he placed first in that April poll... with 8%. But his platform as a radio host has boosted his profile, and local Republicans are likely at least aware of him. He outlasted Anderson at the convention, placing third. I'm not sure how this race is going to shape up because there's limited polling and the money race between Coleman and Owens is tight; McFarland lags, but has had 9 years of free exposure on the radio and has more social media presence than Coleman, but much less than Owens. The district is a 110% battleground as Republicans try and claw their way back to a majority or at least get close in November; Rep. Ben McAdams, the Democrat defending the seat, barely broke 50% in the last election and topped Love by less than 1,000 votes. Given this, I tend to think that Burgess Owens is the most compelling and dynamic candidate and his role as a guest contributor on Fox News is likely to score points with voters, if in nothing more than the name-recognition category. I also expect that Hannity endorsement to help him. I am predicting an Owens win with 29%, McFarland at 22%, and Coleman at 17%. 

 

 

Edited by JRCF29
Don't Call Me Gaga
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GagaTwunk
Posted (edited)

I'm in Oklahoma and just voted! I'm in district 4 and voted for the democrats! :bon:

In terms of the proposition, I hope other voters also see how important it is to expand medicaid especially during the pandemic :ohno:

 

Edited by GagaTwunk
You chew beef, I wear meat.
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Lion Heart

I just hope Medicaid expansion happens in OK. 

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JRCF29
10 minutes ago, Lion Heart said:

I just hope Medicaid expansion happens in OK. 

 

 

4 hours ago, GagaTwunk said:

I'm in Oklahoma and just voted! I'm in district 4 and voted for the democrats! :bon:

In terms of the proposition, I hope other voters also see how important it is to expand medicaid especially during the pandemic :ohno:

 

5% in- 70% YES, 30% NO

Don't Call Me Gaga
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GagaTwunk
18 minutes ago, JRCF29 said:

 

 

5% in- 70% YES, 30% NO

Let's hope that streak continues!! :excited::party:

You chew beef, I wear meat.

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JRCF29
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, GagaTwunk said:

Let's hope that streak continues!! :excited::party:

42%* in- 56% YES, 44% NO

this does not equal 42% of the expected vote, but 42% of polling locations reporting

Edited by JRCF29
Don't Call Me Gaga
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Lion Heart

:applause: 

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JRCF29
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Lion Heart said:

:applause: 

I wouldn’t be so sure about that yet.... the vote count is within one (1) percentage point which has the potential to trigger a recount 

OK is not to my knowledge a state with automatic recounts, but with a margin like this Republicans may well submit a recount request 

Edited by JRCF29
Don't Call Me Gaga
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Lion Heart
23 hours ago, JRCF29 said:

I wouldn’t be so sure about that yet.... the vote count is within one (1) percentage point which has the potential to trigger a recount 

OK is not to my knowledge a state with automatic recounts, but with a margin like this Republicans may well submit a recount request 

What do you make of the Montana Senate race? 

Do Democrats have a solid chance there? 

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JRCF29
16 minutes ago, Lion Heart said:

What do you make of the Montana Senate race? 

Do Democrats have a solid chance there? 

Yes, but it will be really close. They have a strong candidate in Bullock, but Montana is still a red state at the federal level so voters ballot-splitting is a must if the Dems hope to take it. He also faced no (serious) primary opponent and didn’t have to spend any money there, which is a plus. I do think that the recent passage of the Great Outdoors Act plays well for Daines, especially since Bullock’s not exactly an eco-warrior, and Daines is currently on the front foot as far as campaign spending. 

Bullock is a very popular Governor, and even among Republicans his approval rating is only -13 (compare that to say, Gov. Newsom (D-CA), who is at -50 with Republicans) so there’s certainly room for him to pull from the GOP electorate. And Jon Tester was just re-elected last cycle so it is possible for moderate Democrats like Bullock to win, but with President Trump topping the ticket it will take work.
 

I currently rate this race a toss-up and one of the 5 most competitive in the country:vegas:

 

Don't Call Me Gaga

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