JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Hello again! As an aspiring political science major I thought I'd share some thoughts about tomorrow's key primaries here. New York District 2 Republican Primary Andrew Garbarino vs. Mike LiPetri Both candidates are state assemblymen, but only one has the endorsement of the outgoing, 13-term incumbent Peter King. That would be Andrew Garbarino, and given Peter King's popularity with Republicans in the district (he's not just avoided serious challenges, but run completely unopposed for the nomination each time since his constituency was redistricted to the 2nd in 2012) I'd say it gives him the edge. He's also spent much more than LiPetri, who has an NRA endorsement but not much else to show, as every single GOP member of Congress from New York has backed Garbarino. Garbarino 60%-40% methinks. District 9 Democratic Primary Yvette Clarke (i) vs. Chaim Deutsch vs. Lutchi Gayot vs. Isiah James vs. Adam Bunkeddeko Adam Bunkeddeko ran against Clarke last year, coming this close to knocking her off. But this cycle's field is a bit more crowded, and Clarke has spent considerably more than all of her opponents. My feeling on this one is that no candidate will emerge with a majority, but Clarke will clinch the nomination with around 45% of the vote to Bunkeddeko's 40%, with the other candidates making up the difference. If this was a one-on-one matchup then I'd expect an incumbent loss here but with other, moderately well-known options for voters looking for change, the Congressional Black Caucus member should just about eek out a victory. District 11 Republican Primary Nicole Malliotakis vs. Joe Caldarera Malliotakis has a name recognition advantage and endorsements from across the GOP spectrum; Reps. Liz Cheney (WY) and Peter King (NY) along with the Tea Party Express, the NYPD Retired Sergeants PAC, and the New York Post- not to mention President Trump have all pledged their support. She has a significant fundraising advantage over Caldarera and as such has spent much more. I expect local Republicans to nominate her by a wide margin given her experience in big races as this is likely to be a top 5 battleground district in November. 70%-30% sounds right. District 14 Democratic Primary Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (i) vs. Maria Caruso-Cabrera vs. Badru Khan vs. Sam Sloan AOC finds herself playing defense this time around, as she looks to hold off former Republican Maria Caruso-Cabrera and community activist Badru Khan (oh yeah, and chess player Sam Sloan who hasn't won a race, to my knowledge, since he started campaigning for various local and national offices over a decade ago.) Khan is a long-shot and belongs to the more progressive wing of the party like the incumbent congresswoman, but Caruso-Cabrera might be able to channel some of the anger at Ocasio-Cortez's decision to drive Amazon (and thousands of jobs) out of the district and appeal to more moderate Democrats turned off by the socialist-adjacent policies of the former bartender. I'm siding with AOC given the size of her operation (40 staffers) here, and by a comfortable margin too; I expect anywhere from 60-65% of the vote to go to her based on the aforementioned large campaign arm and relatedly her $6.5M spending spree in the run-up to the election, and the fact that her constituency is a bit younger than the U.S average (a stretch? maybe, but taken with everything else it warrants consideration) and younger voters tend to skew more liberal. District 15 Democratic Primary Ruben Diaz Sr. vs. Frangell Basora vs. Michael Blake vs. Melissa Mark-Viverito vs. Julio Pabon vs. Ydanis Rodriguez vs Marlene Tapper vs. Ritchie Torres vs. Mark Escoffry-Bey vs. Samelys Lopez vs. Chivona Newsome vs. Tomas Romas. Progressive Democrats in particular are wringing their hands over this one, as a Ruben Diaz Sr. win would, in their view, deliver a Republican to the House. A history of anti-gay remarks have caught up with the pastor recently, but he has deep ties to the district and is slightly favored to emerge victorious from the primary. His chief opponent is Ritchie Torres, who, in an interesting wrinkle, is himself gay. The constituency swings younger, which might aid Torres, and Diaz Sr. has lagged in the fundraising department and sits a distant fifth in cash raised based on the most recently available data. Other candidates of interest are Melissa Mark-Viverito and Ydannis Rodriguez, the latter of which, like Torres, is a New York City Councilor (Mark-Viverito is a former one.) This one is tough to call, partly because of the size of the field for the open seat, and partly because some factors benefit Torres while others benefit Diaz Sr- including the only available poll which put him in first. The New York Times endorsed Torres, and I will predict his victory tomorrow night, but with a plurality: 38% maybe? I expect that Basora, Blake, Pabon, and the rest of the, to put it bluntly, no-name candidates will combine for about 10% of the vote, but it really doesn't matter how it breaks down because Republicans aren't seriously contesting the race meaning that by hook or by crook, a Democrat will make it to D.C. District 16 Democratic Primary Elliot Engel (i) vs. Jamaal Bowman vs. Christopher Fink vs. Sammy Ravelo Sammy Ravelo and Christopher Fink are on the ballot, but the race is between Engel and Bowman. Had you asked me a month ago, I would have given a decent edge to Engel, but Bowman, an African-American principal has been ascendant in the age of Black Lives Matter and has reportedly become a fundraising juggernaut. He has endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren along with former candidate and special needs teacher Andom Ghebreghiorgis. The most recent poll showed Englel losing badly, but roughly 3 in 10 voters remained undecided about who to support. A series of missteps from the Englel camp, most infamously his hot-mic comment about how he "wouldn't care" about addressing a Black Lives Matter rally if he didn't have a contested nomination fight, has not helped him. It's possible his pro-Israel posture will help him an area of the country with an extremely high Jewish population relative to the rest of the nation, but it hasn't emerged as a key issue in the race and this is more of a personality clash than anything else. I'm siding with Bowman here, in what would be the biggest upset of the cycle so far. I think 53% sounds about right, but don't hold me to it- just a guess! Kentucky Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Charles Booker has gotten hot at the right time as he and his allies seek to channel the momentum into a squash of Amy McGrath. This race is probably the most compelling of tomorrow's elections, at least in my view. I will preface this prediction with the following: I don't view McConnell's seat as up for grabs at this point in the cycle, owing in large part to the partisan lean of the state and in large part to his war chest, but this primary election is crucial for progressives. And by God I think they might just do it. Amy McGrath came close to unseating Rep. Andy Barr in 2018 and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) personally recruited her for this race; her fundraising numbers are very respectable, her military background could be expected to play well with the states 300,000+ veterans (approximately 7% of the total population), and she's a pragmatic, middle-of-the-road Dem with no extreme policies to speak of. Enter Charles Booker, a state rep and rising progressive icon who, like Bowman in New York, has seen his profile rise post-protests. His campaign reports strong fundraising in the past month or so, and quite a few journalists and pundits seem to believe he has a real chance to take the nomination. Polling shows a tightening race from January/June (65%/42% to McGrath) but doesn't give either one a majority and given the recent momentum shift and string of endorsements Booker's experienced- and because political polling and punditry are not exact sciences- it's not inconceivable that there's an upset. It will be close. I think McGrath will take it by a nose, 48%-46%. Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
POP2 4,206 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 I hope McGrath takes it!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister G 10,513 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Amy McGrath needs that victory. Kentucky needs a lot of changes. Tomorrow is going to be a very important day especially across the other states with primaries. Make sure ya’ll get out and vote if you live in one of them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NathanC 938 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Thank you for this. I wished the media would cover more of these elections instead of nonsense. I’m VERY interested in Kentucky. If McGrath wins, I’m getting wasted! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, POP2 said: I hope McGrath takes it!! Senator Schumer is that you? Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
POP2 4,206 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, JRCF29 said: Senator Schumer is that you? Good luck with a progressive in Kentucky! Not all states need a Bernie or Warren to represent them! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, POP2 said: Good luck with a progressive in Kentucky! Not all states need a Bernie or Warren to represent them! I don't really care who wins, the seat isn't in play imo Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
POP2 4,206 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Just now, JRCF29 said: I don't really care who wins, the seat isn't in play imo Yes it is. Polls show it as a tight race. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, NathanC said: Thank you for this. I also have “Where Things Stand”, a bi-weekly newsletter breaking down the 10 most competitive Senate races in the country Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CameronSpears 2,154 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 I'm really rooting for Amy McGrath! Please get out and vote!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarstruckIllusion 53,580 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 come thru King Booker Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, POP2 said: Yes it is. Polls show it as a tight race. I’m not convinced. It may become competitive, but at this point I don’t think so. McConnell’s cash-on-hand advantage is substantial, Kentucky is a fairly red state, and whoever the Dem nominee is will have to do some coalition building given the ideological gulf between Booker and McGrath (the same is true of Jon Osoff in Georgia, but a variety of other factors make that state more favorable for a flip.) Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Heart 15,041 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 I think McGrath will win. I don't see the state being receptive to very liberal politicians, which is why I think Amy wins her primary. I don't think she'll be able to beat McConnell in November, but if she does that would be so glorious. ▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Fudge 8,674 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Kentuckian here- personally I’d love to see Charles Booker take it as the underdog. This past November we saw remarkable change as Andy Beshear (D) overtook Matt Bevin (R), so nothing is impossible even in a traditionally red state. We need to #ditchmitch once and for all! Been a cuff touple, a puff bupple, a tough couple of years. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NathanC 938 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 47 minutes ago, JRCF29 said: I also have “Where Things Stand”, a bi-weekly newsletter breaking down the 10 most competitive Senate races in the country Include me Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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