Stricter lockdowns are better for economies, new model suggests

[TOSK 640]

Strict lockdowns like those instigated in China -- when the coronavirus outbreak began -- are better for economies than the longer, more moderate closures like the United States and many European countries have taken, a new international study suggests.

Shorter but stricter lockdowns don’t hit businesses as hard, researchers reported Wednesday in the journal Nature Human Behavior. Businesses can weather a short, extreme shutdown but run out of supplies and reserves as time goes on.

And if the pandemic returns, a second round of lockdowns will really hurt economies, the team led by economist Dabo Guan from Tsinghua University in China found. 

“While predicting the true cost of lockdowns is not possible at this stage, our research suggests that shorter, stricter lockdowns minimize the impact on supply chains, while gradually easing restrictions over the course of a year may also be less disruptive than a swift lifting of restrictions followed by another lockdown,” Guan said in a statement.

The team simulated three kinds of lockdown: a strict lockdown in which 80% of travel and labor ceases, similar to what China did; a more moderate lockdown with a 60% reduction in work and travel, similar to what the US did; plus a third, lighter lockdown with 40% reductions.

A gradual easing of the restrictions over a year would minimize damage to the global supply chain, they said. But if the virus resurged in the fall, forcing a second round of restrictions, costs to the economy would worsen by a third.

“Our analysis quantifies the global economic benefits of robust public health responses and suggests that economic justifications to reopen businesses could backfire if they result in another round of lockdowns,” said Steve Davis of the University of California Irvine, who took part in the study.

The situation will be even worse if countries stagger a second round of closures and restrictions instead of coordinating them if a second global lockdown occurs. A coordinated global lockdown would raise costs by 33% -- but if countries just move on their own, costs will rise by 57%, the model predicts.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-04-20-intl/h_a0f2a120240ab345cb977ac972747aa6

 

[TEANUS 16,140]

No sh*t. They should have full on shut it down in the US in the middle of March for 2/3 weeks or not done much at all do that we could actually gain herd immunity to this thing

[Bt1 5,213]

It's a study out of China that says that China approach was the best. 

[TOSK 640]

2 minutes ago, Florin said:

It's a study out of China that says that China approach was the best. 

You called me propaganda, you are the Propaganda Queen

You attacked US Bloomberg and now you attack China, you attack anyone not living in your head

[PunkTheFunk 125,703]

The faster you can contain the virus, the less time you need to shut businesses down, and the less impact it has on the economy. I thought this was common sense.

[Bt1 5,213]

2 minutes ago, TOSK said:

You called me propaganda, you are the Propaganda Queen

You attacked US Bloomberg and now you attack China, you attack anyone not living in your head

Pls stay with the facts you China lover. 

U are free to talk about that Bloomberg article in the original thread where I pointed u several times that u use  articles that misquotes an expert.

This article is about something else and u can ignore like you alway do the facts : this is a study from China that says that China strategy is the best. Its simple as that. 

[TOSK 640]

The fact is

Sweden’s chief coronavirus adviser has conceded that his country may have been too relaxed in its approach to lockdown, sparking an angry backlash.

If Covid-19 struck again, Anders Tegnell told a local radio station, “I think we would end up doing in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did.”

https://www.thenational.ae/world/swedish-coronavirus-chief-concedes-he-d-change-herd-immunity-covid-19-response-1.1029028

[DiskoBaby 1,929]

Yup. No going out in the street protesting sharing your germs with people. Stay home and be safe.

[Bt1 5,213]

4 minutes ago, TOSK said:

The fact is

Sweden’s chief coronavirus adviser has conceded that his country may have been too relaxed in its approach to lockdown, sparking an angry backlash.

If Covid-19 struck again, Anders Tegnell told a local radio station, “I think we would end up doing in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did.”

https://www.thenational.ae/world/swedish-coronavirus-chief-concedes-he-d-change-herd-immunity-covid-19-response-1.1029028

Man. You are making off topic comments on your own thread. 

I answered about your misquoted articles in the other thread. 

[TOSK 640]

Just now, Florin said:

Man. You are making off topic comments on your own thread. 

I answered about your misquoted articles in the other thread. 

Sweden’s coronavirus strategy didn’t work: health official

Dr. Anders Tegnell, the health official and epidemiologist who steered Sweden’s coronavirus response which controversially did not include lockdown measures, said too many people have died as a result of that decision.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-strategy-did-not-work-anders-tegnell-20200603-uhhrah3safgtveyrq4y3wsror4-story.html