Germany experiences exponential growth of Covid-19 cases after lockdown end

[Supersonic 49,376]

Two week ago Germany announced first measures to gradually end its national lockdown and allowed non-essential business to open again if they are able to uphold safety standards. Last week, the country has relaxed its restrictions even further, effectively ending the national lockdown it has been in for almost 6 weeks. Now it seems like the relaxed measures caused people to take the virus less seriously and Germany is now experiencing an exponential growth of new Covid-19 infections for the first time, as the virus reproduction number climbs from 0,7 to 1,1. (Which means that 100 infected people now cause 110 new infections instead of just 70).

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/panorama/id_87852462/rki-corona-reproduktionszahl-steigt-wieder-ueber-kritischen-wert-1.html

[alsemanche 97,799]

My country (Lebanon) has had very low rates for a while now so over the past week and this week, people started taking things less seriously and they're out and about much more than before + the government is bringing back Lebanese people from abroad who wish to come back here. As a result, numbers are surging again (we used to get like 3-4 cases per day, and at some point we had 0 per day, but yesterday is jumped to 13 cases and today to 36!!!!). The gov also decided to start reopening the country. They already opened restaurants and some institutions (30% of their full capacity, but still horrible) and are planning to reopen schools and universities by the end of this month/next month. It's scary as hell.

People really think that lock down will kill the virus when instead the whole point is to CONTAIN it. Second waves are gonna hit so many countries harder than the first wave.

[HermioneT 1,998]

4 minutes ago, Supersonic said:

Now it seems like the relaxed measures caused people to take the virus less seriously and Germany is now experiencing an exponential growth of new Covid-19 infections for the first time, as the virus reproduction number climbs from 0,7 to 1,1.

I'm so mad people here act as if nothing happened and everything was back to normal (asides from the stuff which is still forbidden obviously). I literally feel like I am the only person out of my friends/acquaintances who isn't meeting different friends every day, shopping furniture or clothes, moving, doing sport in groups, traveling through the country or having barbecue parties. Yesterday I counted six barbecue parties during a 15 minute walk

[GAYHEMikey 8,237]

Why is the country I live in so dumb omg 

[Bt1 5,213]

Of course that's what will happen. The key is to protect the categories at risk. 

There are however some places that managed to control it even after the reopening. Its unclear why. It may have to do with testing capacities. 

[Mars 2,654]

People are a lot more relaxed here (Berlin) but the local governments have to manage the situation and implement lockdown again if the cases rise more. 

 

[Economy 52,845]

1.1 is not bad tho. When I read exponential I was picturing something crazy high again like above 1.5 to 2 transmition rate

 

1.1 is barely exponential it will rise slowly if it stays there

 

If it surges from that tho then there's a problem

 

 

[Bt1 5,213]

1 minute ago, Economy said:

1.1 is not bad tho. When I read exponential I was picturing something crazy high again like above 1.5 to 2 transmition rate

 

1.1 is barely exponential it will rise slowly if it stays there

 

If it surges from that tho then there's a problem

 

 

Welcome back. 

[Kitana 1,830]

lets wait and see. people HAVE to get the disease because otherwise we wont progress, so as long as numbers are fine and savety procedures are still ongoing i think its fine. of course numbers will rise a little again after everything opens up again. if we keep the curve TOO low this will be an ongoing thing for the next 5 years

[Franch Toast 27,737]

For all you saying that people have to get the disease or things can’t go on, please look at countries in Asia like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Vietnam and then get back to me, as well as New Zealand.

[berlinforme 5,385]

3 minutes ago, Economy said:

1.1 is not bad tho. When I read exponential I was picturing something crazy high again like above 1.5 to 2 transmition rate

 

1.1 is barely exponential it will rise slowly if it stays there

 

If it surges from that tho then there's a problem

 

 

Looking at how people behave here, we'll soon be back at 2.0+ 

The ignorance is crazy, also what scares me is how regular people start believing in conspiracy theories. 

[HermioneT 1,998]

7 minutes ago, Kitana said:

lets wait and see. people HAVE to get the disease because otherwise we wont progress, so as long as numbers are fine and savety procedures are still ongoing i think its fine. of course numbers will rise a little again after everything opens up again. if we keep the curve TOO low this will be an ongoing thing for the next 5 years

This might be right, but for those among us who are high risk themselves or live with someone who is a high risk patient, it is not that easy. It makes me angry when people behave that unreasonable and egoistic, because it makes it even harder for everyone who needs and wants to keep someone from getting it.

[Infinity Wave 7,635]

This is fake news, sorry.

If you go reading the official report from the Robert Koch Institute, you will see that reading and interpreting those numbers this way is just non sense, and actually very wrong.

R0 is the "reproduction" factor, that measures how many people an infected person can infect. 

The RKI calculates that number by dividing the total number of newly infected people in the previous 4 days by the number of previously infected people. 

First of all, this is just a mere number and doesn't really represent the actual evolution of the pandemic. It is just one of the many indicators, and alone it does not really mean anything else than just a rought esteem. Fluctuations are totally normal, and many factors should be considered.

Secondly, even if we were to only look at that number, a longer period of time has to be considered. You cannot just take one value of one day and think ir represent the new evolution of the pandemic in the country. Again, fluctuations are normal and a period of at least 2 weeks should be considered to see the tendency of the R0 factor to gwor or to stabilize. One value only does not mean anything, it does never in science.

Lastly, this is a fake news because R0, being a rough esteem, has a confidency interval: that means that it is calculated and than an interval is given in which it falls with a confidence of 95%. That means, again, the value of R0 can fall in a rather large interval (0,6 ÷ 1,1, for example), and while the 'mean' value of the interval is given as the R0, the whole interval of values should be considered when looking at the data.

Saying that Germany has reached a higher value of R0 is false and wront, because you are looking just at the upper limit of the interval in which R0 can fall. This, and the fact that a longer period of time should be considered when looking and trying to understand the data makes this a fake news.

Source: Robert Koch Instute official report, from which these data are wrongly taken and falsly interpreted.

[Supersonic 49,376]

3 minutes ago, Economy said:

1.1 is not bad tho. When I read exponential I was picturing something crazy high again like above 1.5 to 2 transmition rate

 

1.1 is barely exponential it will rise slowly if it stays there

 

If it surges from that tho then there's a problem

 

 

Any number above 1.1 is exponential, any number above 0.9 is considered extremely bad.

Cases with a reproductive number of 1.1 in 7 days:

100 -> 210 -> 441 -> 926.1 -> 1,944.81 -> 4,084.1 -> 8,576.6

Cases with a reproductive number of 0.7 in 7 days:

100 -> 170 -> 289 -> 491.3 -> 835,21 -> 1,419,86 -> 2,840,42

[Infinity Wave 7,635]

 

5 minutes ago, Infinity Wave said:

This is fake news, sorry.

This doesn't mean that the opening of the country won't lead to a grow in the pandemic again. 

This does just mean that we should be cautious and don't fall in the "if we open the virus exponentially grows again!" rethoric.

Let's wait and see.

Angela Merkel said that depending on the R0, intesige care units will be completely full by September (R0=1,1), July (R0=1,2) or even June (R0=1,3). 

But, again, the tendency of R0 should be considered, not just a mere value of one or two days.