Some experts claim US death toll off by tens of thousands

[Marilyn MonHoe 11,011]

The novel coronavirus has already claimed the lives of more than 61,000 Americans. But experts fear that number could be far higher at this point in the outbreak -- perhaps by tens of thousands -- once the pandemic subsides enough for officials to go back and make a true reckoning of the dead.

Experts are urging leaders to take measures right now to preserve data and medical specimens so that science has the chance to determine the precise number of people who succumbed during one of the most severe global pandemics in memory.

"Under-counting deaths in this particular epidemic is happening all over," said Dr. Daniel Lopez-Acuna, an epidemiologist and former top World Health Organization official, who spent 30 years at the organization. "It’s almost inevitable."

Calculating the precise number of COVID-19 deaths is remarkably complicated for a number of reasons. But leading epidemiologists, pathologists, medical examiners, medical history professors and local, state, federal and global health officials told ABC News that more testing is the single most important factor in determining an accurate national death count.

"We need to have the testing available because the big question now with COVID-19 is the denominator -- of anything," said Dr. Alex Williamson of the College of American Pathologists. "How many people get it? How many people recover? How many are hospitalized? How many died? We don't know the true denominator. More testing is the most important thing we need to do."

Ongoing testing kit shortages in cities and states nationwide means that only clearly symptomatic patients are currently being tested in many places. There also is no uniform national system in the U.S. for investigating deaths, and until two weeks ago, the U.S. was only counting Americans who lab-tested positive, before or after death, for COVID-19.

Left out of the tally are people who died without being tested and those who died at home or some other non-healthcare facilities before they could seek medical care.

"It is an extraordinary challenge," said Dr. Sally Aiken, president of the National Association of Medical Examiners. "There just isn't really the infrastructure."

Further undermining an accurate national count are new analyses that suggest the virus was spreading in the U.S. much earlier than previously believed, likely playing a role in more deaths than currently known.

Less than 2% of all Americans have been tested for the coronavirus to date, according to White House figures -- nearly 5.5 million people. It's a figure that experts say is both higher than most nations and far lower per capita than where the U.S. should be at this point.

U.S. Assistant Secretary for Health and White House "testing czar" Admiral Brett Giroir told George Stephanopoulos on "Good Morning America" on Tuesday that the Trump administration doesn’t concur with a Harvard University study which concluded last week that the U.S. needs to be testing 5 million people a day in June and up to 20 million by July in order to safely re-open the country.

"We don’t believe those estimates are accurate, nor are they reasonable, " Giroir said.

Yet either way, that testing is still mostly focused on the living. Experts told ABC News that an accurate death toll is not only important to later get a better picture of what happened, but if possible, real-time or near real-time death counts can also help public health officials in their battle to contain the virus now.

Source:
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/accurate-us-coronavirus-death-count-experts-off-tens/story?id=70385359

[Mister G 10,512]

There was an article released today stating the pandemic will potentially last another 18-24 months until 60-70% of the population becomes infected and develops immunity in some form. Worst case scenario out of the ones presented are stronger mitigation efforts meaning longer lockdowns and quarantining. 

[Franch Toast 27,737]

That's probably true. I have a friend in Iowa who has all the symptoms and had a consult with a medical official who said she probably has the virus, but because she's not a frontline worker, they can't give her a test. Meanwhile, my friend's husband works in a hospital and could be spreading it unknowingly.....I'm sure there are many more people who have it than have been diagnosed officially, and thus there are more people dying from it (or complications related to it exacerbating other conditions they have). 

[Itsbrenda 2,983]

The US has no health care system for people so I can only imagine how many must be dead there. People will just be dying at home, they will never admit the full casualties though. 
 

the US and China are actually very similar when it comes to there blind pride.

[Chic 20,830]

U.S. bad

[NCgaga 4,345]

7 minutes ago, Itsbrenda said:

The US has no health care system for people so I can only imagine how many must be dead there. People will just be dying at home, they will never admit the full casualties though. 
 

the US and China are actually very similar when it comes to there blind pride.

The US does have a healthcare system, and actually a good one. What a lot of you don't understand, is The issue lies with how one gains access to it. For you to have good healthcare in the US, you either have to buy your health insurance, which can be a steep monthly bill, or, it is supplied to you through your employer(you still pay for it, as it draws money out of your paycheck). Lots of Americans have healthcare- through their employer, or they buy it. The big risks are the Americans that aren't provided through their employer, or they can't afford the monthly payment if they are obtaining it themselves. When Obama was president, there was a big effort to have healthcare for all. The issue with that, is you had to have insurance whether you wanted it or not. If you didn't get it, you were fined. IT was still heavily flawed. There was a period between careers for myself where I did not have healthcare coverage. When it came time to do taxes, I was charged over $600 for not having healthcare for half a year When Obama was president. Healthcare has always been privatized in the US. When you have it through your employer, or you set aside money every month to buy it yourself, you're in good hands. 

[Henri Bardot 3,990]

Death tolls of pandemics are usually off. 

Wouldn't be surprised if the death toll was 2 or 3 times worse than reported. 

In countries like Iran and China thousands of deaths went unreported. Even in Europe it happened. 

Mexico and Brazil are starting to see the beginning of the first wave. Ecuador already had to dig up mass graves, and even the government said the reported numbers weren't even close to the real ones.  

By the end of this, we'll probably see worldwide estimates in the millions. Anywhere from 1-10 million deaths probably

[Itsbrenda 2,983]

2 hours ago, NCgaga said:

The US does have a healthcare system, and actually a good one. What a lot of you don't understand, is The issue lies with how one gains access to it. For you to have good healthcare in the US, you either have to buy your health insurance, which can be a steep monthly bill, or, it is supplied to you through your employer(you still pay for it, as it draws money out of your paycheck). Lots of Americans have healthcare- through their employer, or they buy it. The big risks are the Americans that aren't provided through their employer, or they can't afford the monthly payment if they are obtaining it themselves. When Obama was president, there was a big effort to have healthcare for all. The issue with that, is you had to have insurance whether you wanted it or not. If you didn't get it, you were fined. IT was still heavily flawed. There was a period between careers for myself where I did not have healthcare coverage. When it came time to do taxes, I was charged over $600 for not having healthcare for half a year When Obama was president. Healthcare has always been privatized in the US. When you have it through your employer, or you set aside money every month to buy it yourself, you're in good hands. 

So.. you have a good health care system most people in America can’t access? Sounds really bad to me. 
Thankfully I live in a good country, even if I don’t have a job I can get better health care then even most that pay in the US. 

 

[NCgaga 4,345]

9 minutes ago, Itsbrenda said:

So.. you have a good health care system most people in America can’t access? Sounds really bad to me. 
Thankfully I live in a good country, even if I don’t have a job I can get better health care then even most that pay in the US. 

 

Yep, that’s exactly what I said. 

[HighPrince 42]

Last time I talked about Coronavirus here, I said 60 000 americans were probably gonna die by the beginning of May and I got jumped.

So...

[Ladle Ghoulash 53,242]

2 hours ago, Chic said:

U.S. bad

Tea

[Itsbrenda 2,983]

49 minutes ago, NCgaga said:

Yep, that’s exactly what I said. 

Doesn’t matter what you said, it’s a fact. 

[NCgaga 4,345]

20 hours ago, Itsbrenda said:

Doesn’t matter what you said, it’s a fact. 

What are your facts sweetie? I agreed with you? Are you confused? My post was actually facts. Your’s was not. The way to get healthcare in the US is if it supplied through your employer, or you buy it.