States rushing to reopen likely making a deadly error, experts warn

[Marilyn MonHoe 11,011]

By the end of the week, residents in Georgia will be able to get their hair permed and nails done. By Monday, they will be cleared for action flicks at the cineplex and burgers at their favorite greasy spoon.

And it will almost certainly lead to more novel coronavirus infections and deaths.

As several states — including South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida — rush to reopen businesses, the sudden relaxation of restrictions will supply new targets for the coronavirus that has kept the United States largely closed down, according to experts, math models and the basic rules that govern infectious diseases.

“The math is unfortunately pretty simple. It’s not a matter of whether infections will increase but by how much,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a leading epidemiologist at Columbia University.

There are no easy answers for the phase that comes next, especially with a continued lack of testing, contact tracing and detailed guidance from federal health agencies, disease experts said. Instead, every state will conduct its own improvised experiment with thousands of lives in the balance.

Many of the earliest reopenings will probably be confusing, chaotic, risky affairs — especially for states restarting their economies before most infectious-disease experts and some mayors and residents believe it’s safe to do so.

South Carolina’s governor issued an executive order this week reopening department stores and retailers previously regarded as not essential. Tennessee’s governor said he plans to allow most businesses to reopen once his “safer-at-home” order expires next week. Governors in Mississippi and Ohio have said the same. And Colorado’s Gov. Jared Polis (D) said some businesses could reopen on Friday.

Some of those same states are, however, still struggling to contain outbreaks.

In Ohio, where businesses are expected to reopen by next week, a prison has become one of the most worrisome outbreaks in the country, with more than 2,000 inmates testing positive. In South Dakota, more than 700 infections have shut down a Smithfield Foods meatpacking plant. And because South Dakota remains one of the few states without a stay-at-home order, one business said it plans to go forward on Saturday with a car race drawing 700 spectators.

Georgia, according to some models, is one of the last states that should be reopening. The state has had more than 830 covid-19 deaths. It has tested less than 1 percent of its residents — low compared with other states and the national rate. And the limited amount of testing so far shows a high rate of positives at 23 percent.

On Monday, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) explained his decision to reopen tanning salons, barber shops, massage parlors and bowling alleys, saying: “I see the terrible impact of covid-19 on public health as well as the pocketbook.” Kemp said he will urge businesses to take precautions, such as screening for fevers, spacing workstations apart and having workers wear gloves and masks “if appropriate.”

President Trump, who has pushed to reopen parts of American life, said on Wednesday he told Georgia’s governor that he disagreed “strongly with his decision.” But, Trump added, “at the same time, he must do what he thinks is right.”

Kemp did not directly respond but in tweets Wednesday night said he appreciated the president’s “bold leadership” and pledged that “our next measured step is driven by data and guided by state public health officials.”

“As a country, we’re unprepared not just logistically but mentally for this next phase,” said Michael T. Osterholm, a University of Minnesota infectious-disease expert. He worries most Americans do not grasp the long, hard months facing them and the likelihood of repeated surges of the virus.

“For a while, people were told all we need is to get past the peak. Then, they started hearing all we need is testing. Meanwhile, the president keeps telling everyone that things are going to reopen in a matter of weeks,” Osterholm said. “The way you prepare people for a sprint and marathon are very different. As a country, we are utterly unprepared for the marathon ahead.”

This is the central problem: The vast majority of Americans are still believed to be uninfected, making them like dry kindling on a forest floor. Barring a vaccine or treatment, the virus will keep burning until it runs out of fuel.

“The trick is to keep that burn at a controlled rate,” Osterholm said. “We have focused so much on how we are dying from the virus that we have not focused enough on how to live with the virus.”

Epidemiological models suggest the best strategy for keeping the burn rate under control is to drive the number of infections as low as possible before restoring economic activity. That would then provide time to react if cases flare.

The economic devastation that would cause is significant. But those same models suggest that opening prematurely increases the likelihood that communities will have to shut back down once infections reach a certain level, creating multiple open-shut cycles. Adding to those concerns, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday that a second wave of infections next winter would be even more devastating because it would coincide with flu season.

There’s no simple, one-size-fits-all protocol for reopening the economy, said David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Rubin is developing a model to forecast how reopening 260 large U.S. counties on May 15 would play out if residents maintained only half the social distancing measures now in place.

The good news, Rubin said, is that modest-size, relatively spread-out cities will probably have room to make adjustments. But if restrictions ease too much, New York and similarly dense cities will rapidly see infections spike again.

“It comes back really quick, and the peaks are much higher than what you’re seeing right now,” Rubin said. “It was sobering. I was more optimistic before we did our models.”

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/reopening-america-states-coronavirus/

[Mister G 10,512]

Good luck to them I guess. They better be prepared to handle this chaos if the infections spike out of control.

[Dramatica 13,698]

Well, with Trump as our president what do people expect?!

People are being misinformed, and those saying "America is ready to sacrifice 2% of its population" and its health system for people to be able to get back to their jobs" deserve jail sentence tbqmfh

 

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

Guess we'll find out in 2-3 weeks. 

Hope it's not as bad as predicted. And hopefully the people going out still maintain social distancing as best as possible and wash their hands, wear a mask, etc. 

[Mister G 10,512]

1 minute ago, Morphine Prince said:

Guess we'll find out in 2-3 weeks. 

Hope it's not as bad as predicted. And hopefully the people going out still maintain social distancing as best as possible and wash their hands, wear a mask, etc. 

You’re asking for too much babe lmao! Jokes aside, I get beyond frustrated when I see people wearing gloves to the stores touching everything, then get in their cars and drive off with the gloves on. Some people have no idea how cross-contamination works.

[Blastertoyo 22,734]

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

1 minute ago, Mister G said:

You’re asking for too much babe lmao! Jokes aside, I get beyond frustrated when I see people wearing gloves to the stores touching everything, then get in their cars and drive off with the gloves on. Some people have no idea how cross-contamination works.

I saw a video of a woman grabbing her food and eating with her gloves on. Who knows how many other surfaces she touched with the gloves. 

[Whispering 18,865]

Yep, my redneck state is one of those opening.

I’m staying inside! 

[Traumatica 598]

Well, ‘Muricans have always wanted to have a zombie movie scenario irl. Hope they won’t get disappointed 

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

The virus when people start walking outside again: 

 

[Mister G 10,512]

15 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

I saw a video of a woman grabbing her food and eating with her gloves on. Who knows how many other surfaces she touched with the gloves. 

A friend of mine said she saw a coworker do that at work and she wanted to slap them with a bottle of lysol.

[littlepotter 76,612]

And I will make sure to tag @Florin when that happens

[alsemanche 97,808]

America being stupid? Groundbreaking

[StarstruckIllusion 53,566]

The way these politicians are only there just to make their rich friends richer